In fact, regardless of the specific views of this debate, at the financial level, the distance between Ma Guang and Ren Zeping is still about 10 Li Daxiao. When Ren Zeping was in Anxin, his prediction and analysis were very accurate, and he was the best analyst for many times. But then he got an annual salary of150,000 from a real estate company, and his ass decided his head. Recently, Ren Zeping has left the real estate company and started to be the chief economist of soochow securities, which is a retracement. This is also his first heavy point of view in his new post.
He believes that the dollar has been overspending for more than a decade, and the whole world is cutting leeks. We should reduce our holdings of American debt and dollars and start fighting back.
On the other hand, Ma Guangyuan thinks this is a sign of lack of common sense. He believes that foreign exchange investment should give consideration to safety and liquidity, and you can't buy whatever you want. Although the dollar is love rat, its other assets are even worse.
Look at Ma Guangyuan's statement, it is not like a serious economist, but more like an online celebrity.
At present, we have about $3.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, and our holdings of US Treasury bonds are about 1 trillion. In addition, our foreign debt reached 2.4 trillion at the end of last year, and we really need to hold some American debt to ensure security and liquidity. But that doesn't mean we need to hold so many US Treasury bonds.
We still maintain a monthly trade surplus of 200 billion yuan, but we can't buy many high-tech products. If we could, we would have done so long ago, instead of buying any national debt. Ren Zeping thinks we should buy more oil and gas.
In this regard, Ma Guangyuan said that it is unrealistic that oil and natural gas cannot be stored in large quantities. This is a wrong view. We don't need to bring oil and gas back. In fact, we just need to sign a long-term agreement. From this perspective, it is Ma Guangyuan who lacks common sense.
We signed a long-term agreement with Russia, and recently reached a 25-year long-term cooperation agreement with Iran, but we went further and settled directly in RMB instead of US dollars.
In fact, we are already selling American debt. In the past two years, our sales have reached $654.38+04 billion. Japan has surpassed us to become the largest holder of American debt in the world. Russia, on the other hand, is more radical and has emptied all US Treasury bonds.
Besides, China Investment Corporation, our sovereign wealth fund, is actually investing in some foreign assets. However, I bought the bonds of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the equity of Blackstone before, which was controversial at that time and rarely reported by the media in recent years. But I checked, CIC's historical rate of return is very good, which is impossible to achieve by holding US debt.
In fact, I have thought many times that we should sell American debt and make our foreign exchange reserves more diversified. For example, buy more gold and carbon emission rights and strengthen the issuance of RMB electronic money. I used to think that RMB electronic money and blockchain have nothing to do with decentralization. However, judging from the recent trend, small transactions can be anonymous and decentralized in the future, but large transactions are still regulated like online transactions now.
This time, China-Iran cooperation also mentioned the settlement in digital RMB. Digital RMB, which is my favorite financial weapon.
Finally, everyone who is not blind knows that American debt is a Ponzi scheme. Although this plan can't be exposed in the short term, it doesn't mean that we can ignore this situation, and some preparations should be made as soon as possible.