There are too many questions to answer one by one, and I want to share my logic.
Part number 1
The decline of funds held is an objective fact. Clearance is a new investment option. Before the operation, we need to evaluate the correct probability and cost performance of clearance.
Here, Fat Ball takes the "China Europe Medical" fund with the biggest loss in my position as an example to tell you the correct probability and cost performance of my clearance operation.
Before I say whether to sell or not, let's take a look at my original buying logic:
When China Europe Medical was founded, it was mainly optimistic about the future prospects of the medical track. As people's income level is getting higher and higher, the length and quality of life will be promoted to the first place, so medical care will be a long-term boom.
Let's look at the correct probability of clearance operation:
1, the buying logic has not changed.
Although market sentiment has shifted to non-ferrous and chemical sectors in the post-epidemic era, with the growth of people's income, the weight of life length and quality is increasing day by day, and medicine is still the sunrise industry of long cattle.
This is not contrary to the logic of buying fat balls at first.
2. There is no systemic risk.
At present, the sharp decline in core assets is not aimed at medicine, but at sectors with good prospects like medicine, such as consumption, technology and new energy. , suffered a big retreat.
I think this is only a temporary high-low switch under the tight liquidity. In the future, high-quality core assets will still bear the investment enthusiasm of China residents.
3. The fund manager's performance is still excellent.
The income of CEIBS Medical in the past year has killed similar medical funds, but the withdrawal rate is at the middle level in the industry, and appropriate funds are waiting for students. In the current plunge, its performance is also better than other funds in the same industry.
The current decline has not affected life.
At present, Pangqiu China-Europe medical loss 16% is far from the historical withdrawal rate. It doesn't affect the life of Fat Ball now, and selling it won't make me feel happy.
Finally, look at the cost performance of clearance operation:
1. Direct loss 16%+
The current loss of CEIBS Medical 16 points. If it is cleared, it will directly suffer a loss of 16%. According to the current inflation level, the clearance funds will also face hidden losses every day.
2. Lack of reinvestment channels
The collective valuation of high-quality white horse stocks, some short-term thematic opportunities such as environmental protection and steel that have been heated up recently are highly speculative and require strong timing and operation. At present, it is too risky to participate rashly.
3. The plunge has stopped.
In fact, what everyone is most entangled in is whether medicine will continue to fall.
In the post-epidemic era, the market sentiment turned to resumption of production (nonferrous metals and chemicals), the liquidity declined, and medicine was well understood. Recently, the government work report of the two sessions predicted that Yang Ma would release water soon.
The rebound of GEM today is also a precursor. The sharp decline has stopped at present, and then the most is sideways shock. When mother's pocket money drops, medicine will start a new upward trend.
Summary:
Based on the above series of analysis, Fat Ball thinks it is a wrong choice to clear the fund of China Europe Medical.
The investment logic of the fund itself is to buy more and more. Only when the price is low can we get enough chips and get more income when it rises.
Fund investment is like snowballing. The key is to find enough wet snow and long slopes. I think I chose that long slope, and now I can wait for the snow slowly. In many cases, slow is fast.
So, I didn't do anything today.