Real estate is a pillar industry of the national economy.

Currently, the real estate industry is undergoing changes unseen in twenty years.

Under the guiding ideology of “housing is for living, not for speculation”, it is crucial for the real estate industry to seek changes in new development models.

On December 18, at the "Financial Annual Conference 2023: Forecast and Strategy", Zhu Min, Ni Pengfei, Qin Hong and many other experts and scholars from well-known universities and authoritative institutions discussed macroeconomics, real estate market, and real estate enterprises respectively.

perspective, and provide advice and suggestions on the healthy development of the real estate industry.

Zhu Min: The consumption of housing renewal needs new policies to encourage and support Looking forward to the Chinese economy in 2023, Zhu Min, Vice Chairman of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and former Vice President of the International Monetary Fund, believes that my country’s macroeconomic policy management is increasingly There is a need to focus on aggregate demand management.

Consumption and real estate are the two major gaps causing this year's economic growth to be lower than expected.

Next, we need to expand residents' consumption and give priority to restoring and expanding consumption.

At the same time, support housing and improve consumption.

Zhu Min said that real estate sales data have declined significantly this year, and real estate development investment data may have dropped by about 10% year-on-year this year.

The real estate industry usually contributes 1 percentage point to GDP growth.

At present, the real estate industry not only does not contribute, but also drags down economic growth.

Zhu Min believes that supporting housing improvement and consumption issues are now mainly about consumption rather than supply.

This year it is expected that there will be about 6.5 million newlyweds. If each couple buys a new house of 100 square meters, it will be about more than 600 million square meters. The current total supply has reached 1 billion square meters a year. The total supply is greater than the total demand. The remaining demand lies in

Housing updates.

The consumption of housing renewal needs new policies to encourage and support to boost residents’ confidence, especially to support second homes.

"We cannot think that with the injection of liquidity, the real estate industry has stabilized housing and will naturally rebound next year. Because the structure of its total demand and total supply is unbalanced, policies still need to be used." Zhu Min said.

Ni Pengfei: China's real estate should strive to achieve a "bounce-type soft landing." Currently, the real estate market situation is relatively severe, and it is common sense to take measures to stabilize the market.

Ni Pengfei, director of the Urban and Competitiveness Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that China's real estate should strive to achieve a "bounce-type soft landing", comply with the development trend of landing gear-shifting transformation, offset the inertia of rapid decline in the market opportunity period, prevent and resolve risks, and provide a solid foundation for

This requires intensifying policy efforts to reverse the market opportunity period.

Ni Pengfei said that China's real estate should strive to achieve a "bounce-type soft landing", and he made six suggestions: 1. Mitigating the impact is a prerequisite.

We must accelerate economic recovery, increase income, expand employment, and prevent and mitigate the impact of external uncertainty.

2. "Securing the delivery of the building" is the key point.

It is necessary to speed up the resolution of the "three arrows" obstruction, combine the construction of new housing financing models, establish a real estate bailout fund, and use it specifically for equity investment in enterprises and projects that are in danger or in difficulty.

3. Debt disposal is a top priority.

It is necessary to explore the establishment of a real estate guidance fund where the government guides social participation, accelerate strategic mergers and acquisitions, debt restructuring and asset revitalization, reshape and reduce corporate balance sheets, and build a new development model for enterprises.

4. Expanding demand is the foundation.

It is necessary to relax the conditions for purchasing a house and reduce the cost of purchasing a house.

It is necessary to combine and improve the housing security system and encourage state-owned enterprises or high-quality private enterprises to acquire projects of insured enterprises for affordable rental housing, private property housing, etc.

5. Stabilizing housing prices is key.

The decline in housing prices will help reduce living and business costs, but it must be absorbed gradually. If the decline occurs too quickly, some temporary control measures can be taken.

6. Reversing expectations is a guarantee.

We should do a good job in guiding public opinion, giving full play to the role of the first- and second-tier cities as a bellwether, and first let the first- and second-tier cities recover. At the same time, we will reduce the land supply in third-, fourth- and lower-tier cities and gradually digest the inventory.

Qin Hong: The development, profit, financing, and target models of real estate companies should be transformed. In the process of seeking new development models, "surviving" and going through cycles is the only way for real estate companies.

Qin Hong, senior researcher at the National Institute of Development and Strategy at Renmin University of China, director of the Urban Renewal Research Center, and former director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that entering a new stage of development, there are five changes in the transformation of real estate companies: First, real estate companies still need to optimize their development models.

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The demand scale of China's real estate market is still huge, with both rigid demand and improvement demand being relatively large.

Real estate companies should optimize their development models according to demand, such as improving the quality of product supply for real estate companies based on improved demand.

Second, real estate companies should explore asset-light businesses.

In the past, the model that revolved around the development and sales cycle will be reduced in total volume in the future. Light asset operations such as agency construction and services can be used as new source models for real estate companies to make profits. In particular, the agency construction market has grown rapidly in recent years.

Third, real estate companies need to develop existing businesses, that is, urban renewal.