In fact, the fund positions we have seen are all the data of last quarter, and the latest positions of the fund are all non-public information. It is impossible for us to know the specific position adjustment results through public information.
However, traces can still be found in public information. For example, fund managers usually reveal which theme or industry they are optimistic about in the new quarter, and they have reasons and the latest research direction. These are all important reference information, and we can analyze them in detail with the previous investment styles and preferences of fund managers.
1. How to judge whether the funds have been transferred? There is a big deviation between valuation and net worth.
Because the regulations stipulate that the fund only needs to publish its position once every quarter, for example, after the end of the first quarter, the quarterly report must be published within 15 working days after the end of the first quarter, and the quarterly report of the fund is the information of the first 10 stocks.
Fund valuation is that the third-party platform calculates a real-time estimated price according to the information of these heavy stocks with mathematical formulas for your reference.
For example, when the fourth quarterly report was just released, you will find that the accuracy of the valuation is still relatively high, which is not much different from the rise and fall of the net value announced after the market, because the manager has not changed positions.
With the passage of time, for example, in June 5438+10, the valuation data is still estimated based on the positions of the four quarterly reports, that is, at the end of June 5438+February. If the manager adjusts the position privately, the accuracy of the valuation will be very inaccurate and will be different from the rise and fall of the net value.
But generally speaking, the valuation will not change much after the fund is transferred out, which is generally around 1%.
First of all, it is because the style of the fund determines that the investment sector is stable. If it is a fund in a certain industry, then most of the investments are stocks in this industry, and the changes will not be particularly great;
Secondly, the manager and ability circle of fund managers are limited. There are thousands of stocks in the whole market, so he can't know all of them. There are few familiar stocks, generally no more than 50, and the positions of these stocks change.
Finally, the fund manager will not change positions crazily, because he wants to control the turnover rate of the fund. After the turnover rate is high, the loss of handling fees will be paid by investors, which is not conducive to the investment experience of investors.
For example, recently, fund group stocks suffered heavy losses, while the pro-cyclical sector rose strongly. Surprisingly, there is a big deviation between the actual net value and the estimated net value of many star funds, and they are not as "injured" as expected. This means that some star fund managers adjusted their positions after the beginning of the year.
For example, the estimated net value of Ruiyuan growth value managed by Fu Pengbo and Ruiyuan equilibrium value managed by Zhao Feng also showed a big deviation from the actual net value. Judging from the latest trends, Ruiyuan Fund has recently frequently investigated listed companies in the chemical sector. Last year, HSBC Jintrust, the champion of stock fund, managed Caitong value power and Lu Bin managed Jinzicai. Both fund managers have revealed many times this year that they are optimistic about the chemical and non-ferrous sectors, and there are also signs of changing positions.
2. How to judge the direction of capital transfer? In the case that the market calls on institutions to hold a group, in fact, many fund managers are secretly transferring positions. The specific direction of position adjustment may be revealed in a quarterly report, but through the public views and research of fund managers, we can get a general understanding of the direction of position adjustment. In which industries and departments.
(1) The latest views of fund managers According to the investment director of a fund company in Shanghai, A shares are quite strong at 1 this year, and the increase of some targets far exceeds expectations. As far as he knows, many fund managers have adjusted their positions. "Some stocks have risen rapidly and violently, and the market fluctuates greatly. It is more important to make investment now. The position at the end of the fourth quarter announced by the fund's regular report is of little significance now. "
Many fund managers say that they are paying more and more attention to the balance of their portfolios.
Liu Xiaolong, founder of Billion Private Equity Juming Investment, revealed that in the fourth quarter of last year, the allocation of electric vehicles and the military industry began to increase. From the end of 65438+February last year to the beginning of 65438+ 10 this year, the increase of these two sectors is very amazing. 65438+ 10 did some position management moderately in the first ten days of October, reduced positions on rallies and timely adjusted positions, cashed in some gains, moderately participated in the investment of Hong Kong stocks, and added pro-cyclical positions.
The recent public speech of Xiaowen, a fund of China Post, may have revealed its position adjustment direction. She said that the leading targets in various industries are still the main source for me to choose future targets, but in the process of market differentiation and deduction, we also observed that many small and medium-sized market targets with excellent texture are expected to continue to grow at a high speed in the next three to five years, and their valuations are obviously lower than the industry average valuation level. We believe that such targets will also be included in the scope of key research and tracking. In terms of net worth, its recently announced net worth led the valuation increase.
These views can be understood through the wealth of fund companies and the four quarterly reports.
(2) Compared with the fund position, the fund manager's research direction may be more forward-looking, and compared with the fund manager's point of view, the research intuitively shows which companies the fund is interested in next, but only industries and sectors.
Especially now that fund groups are temporarily leading the market, these data are of reference value on the Internet.
The overall average level of head fund is higher than that of Public Offering of Fund, and it has more funds, which may also become the object of replication operation of other funds, which deserves special attention.
Since the month of 202 1, a total of 269 companies have been investigated by Public Offering of Fund, and these 269 companies have been investigated for 2974 times, with an average of more than 10. Among them, there are 28 fund managers who participated in the research of these companies, and the funds in charge exceed 20 billion yuan. The total scale of these 28 people exceeds 1 trillion yuan.
3. How do investors respond? Many investors will choose to copy the fund manager's heavy stocks, but investors should be aware that the heavy stocks you see are lagging behind, and you can't predict whether the price has been overvalued at this time, when the fund manager will sell, and other timing issues.
Choosing to buy a fund manager's product is not because of the ups and downs of one of his heavyweight stocks, but because of his concept of building a portfolio and the benefits it brings. Therefore, there is no need to blindly redeem because the net value lags behind the valuation, and the risk is inevitable. The significance of fund manager's stock portfolio is to spread risks, and the significance of our long-term holding is also to smooth risks, so it is recommended to choose a trustworthy fund to hold for a long time.
First, don't copy your homework from the top ten stocks you see in the fund. It is necessary to know that the position disclosure in a quarterly report is only the top ten awkward stocks, and the position of a fund is definitely far more than ten. What's more, the published job information is lagging behind. The general quarterly report is released about one month after the end of the quarter. From the index of fund turnover rate, we can also find that when we see these positions, the fund manager may have made adjustments long ago.
In short, whether it is the amount of funds, the timing of opening positions or the level of risk control, it is difficult, costly and risky to copy funds.
Second, try to hold more balanced hybrid funds, and don't hold too many scattered industry/theme funds. There is a simple reason. Hybrid funds are usually allocated in multiple industries in a balanced way, but the types and styles of holding shares in industries or a theme fund are relatively single. Once the market hotspots switch, the withdrawal of such funds will be very large, just like the explosion of a vaccine stock before, which will lead to a sharp drop in the middle line of the pharmaceutical fund. This situation can easily make investors lose confidence and even cut the meat and leave. Therefore, for most people, the balanced allocation of hybrid funds, including broad-based index, should be a heavier part of our fund portfolio, while other industry/theme funds and narrow-based index are just embellishments and light positions.
The market is unpredictable, but reasonable asset allocation is very important. Whether it is a bull market, a bear market or a volatile market, we should allocate stock funds and bond funds in a reasonable and balanced way, which will make our investment more stable and lasting. Diversified investment can not only participate in the gains brought by market inflation, but also avoid the huge losses brought by plunge, and better grasp the long-term income and risk level of portfolio.
Third, some investors with long-term experience in holding funds will find that making money and choosing the right ones are only the first step, and how to hold them is more critical. When people around you buy funds and start to make money, it is not always possible to get what you want when you enter the market with the expectation of getting rich quickly and chase the short-term fast-rising investment targets. However, since it is a long-term investment, it is more suitable for most people to invest with "idle money", make a good plan for medium and long-term holding, and exchange time for space.
Investors are advised to choose products with good long-term performance and low turnover rate as far as possible. Fund managers should have the ability to carry incremental funds and try not to significantly increase their positions when the market is extremely hot.
Since we have chosen fund investment, we should establish the concept of long-term investment, choose the fund products that we recognize and trust, and enjoy the long-term dividend of capital market development.