the economic crisis that began with the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has been going on for some time. China's economy has a high dependence on foreign trade (9.8% in 78, 7.1% in 24 and 71% in 27), and neither the financial sector nor the real economy can be immune to it. Therefore, from the public opinion has been discussing whether the China government will "rescue the market" to a series of economic policies, including monetary policy and fiscal policy, which started in September, the macro-control intervention in the economic crisis began. Judging from these policies, the state has adopted flexible and prudent macroeconomic policies, active fiscal policies and appropriate loose monetary policies in response to this economic crisis.
one. Proactive fiscal policy.
the State Council has decided to make major adjustments to its fiscal policy and implement a proactive fiscal policy. "This is the second time that China has turned to a proactive fiscal policy in response to the Asian financial crisis in 1998. In 1998, due to the impact of the Asian financial crisis, there were problems of insufficient effective demand and obvious deflation trend in China, and economic growth was weak. In this case, our government resolutely decided to implement a proactive fiscal policy, which not only effectively resisted the impact of the Asian financial crisis, but also promoted economic restructuring and sustained and rapid growth. Since 24, China's economy has begun to emerge from the shadow of deflation, showing a trend of accelerated development. However, there have also been problems such as excessive investment growth in some industries and regions, and inflationary pressures have been increasing. Under this circumstance, the government once again made a choice and turned a proactive fiscal policy to a prudent fiscal policy from 25. "
two. Appropriately loose monetary policy.
This is also the first time that China has used the term "loose" in its monetary policy for more than 1 years. Appropriate loose monetary policy is intended to increase the money supply, while continuing to stabilize the overall price level, it should play a more active role in promoting economic growth. In 1998, China implemented a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. In the second half of 27, the monetary policy changed from "steady" to "tight" in view of the phenomenon of excessive price increase and high investment and credit in the economy. Nowadays, the change of monetary policy to "appropriate easing" means a major change in the orientation of money supply. Historically, changes in monetary policy have always been closely linked to a country's macroeconomic situation. The current shift of China's monetary policy highlights the country's determination to promote economic growth.
"This adjustment is sending a signal that the country will boost the economy." Yuan Gangming, a researcher at China of Tsinghua University Institute of Economics and Management and the Center for World Economic Research, believes that the domestic economy has shown signs of declining growth rate, and that a moderately loose monetary policy is the response.
since last year, China's GDP growth rate has declined for five consecutive quarters, and some factories in coastal areas have difficulties in operation; At the same time, the weakening of external demand has put new pressure on China's exports.
the relevant person in charge of the central bank also said in an interview that the current implementation of moderately loose monetary policy is to ensure the stable growth of money and credit and sufficient liquidity of the financial system, promote steady and rapid economic growth, support the expansion of domestic demand, maintain currency stability and financial stability, and increase financial support for economic growth. Moderately loose monetary policy, on the one hand, will play a pulling role in promoting economic growth, on the other hand, it will lay a solid foundation for healthy economic development in the future.
"Adding the word" moderate "before" loose "is to emphasize that the scale of credit relaxation is not comprehensive relaxation, but maintenance, pressure and choice." Zhang Bin believes that "more attention will be paid to the quality and efficiency of economic growth."
three. Implementation of specific policies (in chronological order)
1. On September 15th, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the benchmark interest rate of RMB loans and the RMB deposit reserve ratio of small and medium-sized financial institutions: from September 25th, 28, except for ICBC, Agricultural Bank, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications and Postal Savings Bank, the RMB deposit reserve ratio of other deposit-taking financial institutions will be lowered by 1 percentage point, and the deposit reserve ratio of local corporate financial institutions in the hardest-hit areas of Wenchuan earthquake will be lowered by 2.
Comment: With the interest rate hikes in recent years, the space for the central bank to raise interest rates has been shrinking. However, at the beginning of this year, the CPI index began to rise wildly, which put the financial sector in a dilemma. If interest rates are raised to curb inflation, it will lead to operational difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises and lower stock markets, while interest rate cuts will connive at CPI rising. In desperation, we can only stop adjusting the bank interest rate and increase the deposit reserve ratio to achieve the effect of curbing inflation.
Just after the CPI index dropped for four consecutive months, more importantly, the CPI index dropped to 4.9% in August. Just a few days after the CPI index was released in August, the central bank suddenly announced a rate cut. This time, the situation was basically the same as usual, and the central bank's policies were adjusted with the CPI index. The sudden interest rate cut is not only to break the public's expectation of the upward adjustment of bank interest rates, but also has a lot to do with the recent shortage of funds and operational difficulties of many small and medium-sized enterprises in coastal areas.
it is undoubtedly good news for the property market that the central bank has ended the interest rate hike cycle and entered the policy adjustment period. This is the first time that the central bank has lowered the benchmark loan interest rate since October 29th, 24, and it is also the first time that the central bank has lowered the deposit reserve ratio in nine years. In recent years, with the step-by-step upward adjustment of bank interest rates, the demand for loans for domestic residents to buy houses has been gradually suppressed. With regard to the expectation of bank interest rate increase in the second half of the year, if the central bank raises interest rates again, it will undoubtedly have a greater impact on the property market that is in a downturn.
although the central bank's interest rate cut this time is mainly to help SMEs solve their difficulties, it also shows from another level that inflation has been reasonably and effectively controlled, and the future bank interest rate and deposit reserve ratio will be in a relatively stable period, and there will be no major adjustment in the short term, at least no further upward adjustment. Because the national financial policy generally will not be adjusted up and down in a short period of time, unless the domestic inflation worsens. The relaxation of the financial environment will bring vitality to the current development of the property market.
after ordinary residents' doubts about the bank's interest rate hike are eliminated, the demand for residential loans may be released under the circumstances that various properties are offering special prices and preferential prices, which will push the domestic real estate market out of the downturn and enter a period of healthy development.
2. The collection method of stamp duty on securities transactions is adjusted to unilateral taxation. On the 18th, with the approval of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China decided to adjust the collection method of stamp duty on securities (stocks) transactions from September 19th, 28, and levy stamp duty on securities (stocks) transactions on both parties based on the existing A-share and B-share equity transfer documents for buying, selling, inheriting and giving, and adjust them to unilateral taxation, that is, the A-share and B-share equity transfer documents for buying, selling, inheriting and giving.
Comment: Reducing the transaction cost of stocks may increase the transaction volume in the short term. However, due to the frustration of international stock markets and the continuous downturn, it seems that some indicators will not cure the problem. As Gong Fangxiong, an economist in JPMorgan Chase, predicted, "In view of the fact that the global crisis has seriously impacted investment confidence, China's decision to adjust stamp duty on the 18th may not be able to invigorate the medium and long-term stock markets." Perhaps, just as some people criticized the "cloth tickets" and "food stamps" in the past, now they criticize the household registration system. Does it solve the problem by canceling them? The key is that the rights and obligations attached to them should be stripped. The implementation of unilateral stamp duty may have a positive effect on the stock market in the short term.
2. Support central enterprises to increase or buy back shares of listed companies. Sasac director Li Rongrong also said on the 18th that the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has always emphasized that state-owned enterprises, especially central enterprises, should become a positive force to promote the stable development of the capital market. In the current downturn of the stock market, SASAC supports central enterprises to increase or buy back shares of listed companies.
3. Huijin announced that it would independently purchase shares of ICBC, China Construction Bank and China Construction Bank in the secondary market. In order to ensure the state's controlling position in key state-owned financial institutions such as ICBC, China Construction Bank and so on, support the steady operation and development of key state-owned financial institutions, and stabilize the share price of state-owned commercial banks, Central Huijin will independently purchase shares of ICBC, China Construction Bank and China Construction Bank in the secondary market, and start relevant market operations from now on.
comment: it is understandable for the state to increase its stock holdings and inject capital into state-owned enterprises (large enterprises) in any ideological country. Some people once criticized the United States for saving the market as socialism, not to mention the rationality of the state's use of public taxes to save enterprises. As far as the tools of the state to regulate the market economy are concerned, the rise and fall of large enterprises are particularly related to the basic livelihood of the people, and it is reasonable for the state to support them. However, when its development is gradually mature, it should strengthen its own risk early warning mechanism and immunity against the defects of risk perfection.
4. On October 5th, the People's Bank of China announced that it agreed that China Association of Interbank Market Dealers would continue to accept the registration of medium-term notes issued by non-financial enterprises from October 6th.
brief comment: restarting the issuance of medium-term notes will help some large enterprises to obtain liquidity and alleviate their financing difficulties, and it is not excluded to use the funds to increase the shares of listed companies. At the same time, because there are certain threshold restrictions on the issuance of medium-term notes, the financing help for SMEs is limited.
on October 5th, the CSRC indicated that it would start the pilot work of margin trading and securities lending business of securities companies in the near future.
Comment: Some people call it "short selling". The financing difficulties of securities companies are particularly difficult at this moment when the stock market is in a downturn. Carrying out this business can not only expand profits but also expand losses. The launch of the pilot margin trading business of securities companies is an important measure for the reform and development of China's capital market, and it also injects new vitality into the current securities market, which is of positive significance for promoting the stable development and reform and innovation of China's capital market.
6. On October 8th, the State Council decided to temporarily exempt personal income tax on the interest income from savings deposits from October 9th, 28.
On the same day, the People's Bank of China decided to reduce the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by .5 percentage points from October 15th. From October 9, the benchmark interest rates for one-year RMB deposits and loans will be lowered by .27 percentage points each, and the benchmark interest rates for other term grades will be adjusted accordingly.
Comment: These two contradictory measures have caused some people to misunderstand. Exemption from interest tax will obviously increase personal savings and become a tax haven for personal income. At present, inflation is properly controlled, so there is no need to take further measures. Lowering the reserve ratio is also obviously a favorable policy for the stock market, so it can be seen that the state has different purposes in introducing these two measures at the same time and has no intention of conflict.
7. On October 21st, the Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China jointly issued the Notice on Increasing the Export Tax Refund Rate of Some Commodities, increasing the export tax rebate rate of 3,486 commodities.
Comment: This policy adjustment is mainly to meet the challenges faced by the current economic slowdown in China, especially the slowdown in export growth. By reducing the operating pressure of export enterprises, it will promote the self-development of export enterprises and improve their ability to cope with risks.
The large-scale adjustment of the tax rebate rate for commodity exports once again highlights the macro-control intention of the China Municipal Government to "maintain growth", and it is another major control measure following the recent increase in the credit scale of commercial banks, the implementation of new foreign exchange management regulations and the two-time reduction of the "double rate".
since the beginning of this year, affected by the international financial turmoil and the global economic slowdown, China's economic growth has slowed down obviously. According to the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the economic growth rate of China in the first three quarters of this year was 9.9%, which was 2.3 percentage points lower than that of the same period of last year.
by increasing the export tax rebate rate of labor-intensive products, it will help to enhance the ability of enterprises to resist market risks, support the healthy development of small and medium-sized enterprises to overcome operational difficulties, and thus promote the employment of urban and rural labor. In addition, by increasing the export tax rebate rate of high-tech and high value-added goods, it will help guide enterprises to optimize the export product structure and accelerate the pace of industrial upgrading.
8. On October 22nd, the Ministry of Finance announced that from November 1st, the deed tax rate will be reduced to 1% for individuals who purchase ordinary houses of 9 square meters or less for the first time, and stamp duty will be temporarily exempted for individuals who sell or buy houses, and land value-added tax will be temporarily exempted for individuals who sell houses. Financial institutions provide loans for residents to purchase ordinary self-occupied houses for the first time and improve ordinary self-occupied houses. The lower limit of the loan interest rate can be expanded to .7 times of the benchmark loan interest rate, and the minimum down payment ratio can be adjusted to 2%. At the same time, the interest rate of individual housing provident fund loans was lowered, and the interest rates of all grades were lowered by .27 percentage points respectively. Local governments can formulate policies for fee reduction and exemption to encourage housing consumption.
Comment: The obvious measures to encourage buying houses to boost the housing market have always had different views on the government's rescue of the real estate market, including the acquisition of Fannie and Freddie by the United States. Many people think that this is the protection for real estate developers. It is well known that housing prices are inflated and bubbles are generated. Taking Beijing as an example, housing prices in the capital should indeed be long, but it is obvious that they cannot keep soaring. After calculating the benchmark interest rate of .7 times, it is known that there is a phenomenon of "deposit and loan upside down". Of course, this may be a formal slogan, and the main purpose is to boost public confidence. The introduction of these measures to encourage the purchase of houses makes people have to have suspense: This will not cause the "subprime mortgage crisis" in China, will it? Housing prices do not fall, and the fundamental ills such as "land" finance are not changed. Perhaps behind the remarkable results, some people have gained gray income and hitchhiked the government, taking advantage of the policy.
on October 29th, the central bank announced that the benchmark interest rates for RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions would be lowered from October 3th, among which the benchmark interest rates for one-year deposits and loans would be lowered by .27 percentage points respectively.
brief comment: two interest rate cuts in one month are enough to see the prudent macroeconomic policies of the government in this economic crisis, to prevent excessive regulation and control, and to save water just after putting out the fire. However, the effect of such refueling tactics is often not particularly obvious.
on November 4, 1, the central bank said that it would no longer impose hard constraints on the credit scale of commercial banks.
Comment: Some people say that a crisis is both a danger and an opportunity. The financial crisis is also an opportunity for China's financial system reform. At present, China's financial assets, enterprises and operations are too nationalized, and the ability to prevent risks and market competitiveness have improved to the alley. It is also a measure to improve the financial market to properly let go of the financial and commercial market. Of course, some people think that it is the relative closure of China's finance that protects the financial sector (such as the Asian financial crisis in 1997), but the globalization of financial capital has accelerated, and the degree of China's participation in international finance requires the reform of our financial market to be imminent.
on November 5th, the State Council held an executive meeting to study and deploy measures to further expand domestic demand and promote steady and rapid economic growth. The meeting identified ten measures to further expand domestic demand and promote economic growth.
Comment: This is a big fiscal policy. The basic investment is 4 trillion yuan, which will stimulate local and various parties to invest more than 1 trillion yuan, which may make western countries stunned. Some countries admire China's efforts to concentrate on major events, but we should be sober-headed. It is good for investment to promote the economy. It should be noted that we should guard against corruption and prevent policy mistakes and investment from deviating from the direction. These investments are mainly infrastructure projects and people's livelihood