On the one hand, with the advancement of financial globalization and the opening of China's capital market, global asset management giants have accelerated their "staking" in China, and the activity of northbound capital transactions has risen against the trend, becoming an important source of incremental funds in the A-share market; On the other hand, under the guidance of relevant policies, multi-channel long-term funds such as pension target funds, occupational annuities and bank financing subsidiaries are also accelerating admission.
According to the statistics of brokerage research report, the proportion of A-share tradable shares held by Public Offering of Fund, insurance and foreign investors is gradually approaching, forming a "three-legged" pattern. The potential incremental funds of these three main forces in the future may exceed 800 billion yuan, which is expected to set off the banner of doing more in the A-share market next year.
Foreign capital has become an important institutional force.
Since the beginning of this year, A shares have continued to fluctuate and bottom out, and the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by more than 20% during the year. While Public Offering of Fund is shrinking its defense, the scale of its northward capital position has increased against the trend.
Choice data shows that as of June 5438+February 10, the total net inflow of northbound funds this year was 288.8 billion yuan, the highest in the past years since the opening of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.
At the same time, the process of overseas asset management giants' layout of the A-share market is also obviously accelerating. According to the data of the Fund Industry Association, up to now, five foreign-funded institutions, such as Fidelity, UBS Asset Management, Fudun, Yingshiman, Huili, Jing Shun Zongheng, Lubomai, Aberdeen, BlackRock, Schroeder and Qiaoshui, have registered as private investment fund managers in the Association.
According to a statistic of Haitong Securities, as of the end of July this year, the value of A-share free stock market held by foreign investors has accounted for about 6% of the total market value of A-share free shares, which is close to the 6.7% shareholding ratio of insurance capital, further narrowing the gap with Public Offering of Fund's 8.4% shareholding ratio and becoming the third largest institutional force in the current A-share market.
In the eyes of many people in the industry, with the rapid increase of the scale of foreign ownership, its influence on the A-share market is getting stronger and stronger.
"We look at the increase in the ratio of foreign shares, which is not simply a change in the structure of investors, but a sign that the A-share market is becoming more and more mature in concept and mechanism. The difficulty brought about by this change is that our excess income is becoming more and more difficult to obtain. But the bigger advantage is that we can focus more on the value evaluation system and focus more on companies with excellent quality, which is a great boon for our investment research. " A fund manager in South China said.
A fund manager in Shanghai believes that the specialization and institutionalization of A-share investment are accelerating and advancing in all directions. Long-term funds represented by institutions will optimize the structure of A-share investors and contribute to the rise of the concept of value investment. More importantly, listed companies with low valuation, high dividends and excellent performance are expected to continue to be recognized by the market in the future. Under the guidance of the survival of the fittest mechanism, the allocation efficiency of the A-share market will be significantly improved.
Incremental funds set off the banner of doing more.
After the A-share market has experienced the stock game for quite some time, the scale and rhythm of incremental funds entering the market have attracted much attention. At present, there are some signs that institutional investors such as public offering, insurance and foreign investment are expected to bring hundreds of billions or even trillions of incremental funds next year, thus raising the banner of A-shares doing more.
From Public Offering of Fund's point of view, in the depressed market environment, the allocation ratio of partial stock funds to stock assets has generally declined, which means that there is more room for them to increase their positions in the future. According to the forecast of TF Securities, the average positions of 323 equity funds and 2,656 hybrid funds are 84.8 1% and 50.92% respectively. If the average positions of the two types of products are raised to 90% and 60% respectively, it will bring140 billion yuan in revenue.
In terms of insurance funds, TF Securities assumes that the balance of insurance funds will increase by 10% next year. According to the allocation ratio of 12%, the incremental funds will be19 billion yuan.
At the same time, the increase in the proportion of MSCI and its inclusion in the FTSE Russell index system are expected to bring 400 billion to 500 billion yuan in revenue to the A-share market.
"MSCI said that it will work to increase the inclusion factor of A shares from the current 5% to 20% next year, which will directly bring hundreds of billions of incremental funds to A shares. The performance benchmarks of many foreign funds are these two international indexes, so it is more and more necessary for foreign investors to allocate A shares. In 20 18, the total amount of foreign capital flowing into the A-share market was close to 300 billion yuan, a record high. I think the future will hit a new high. " Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, said.
In addition, domestic commercial banks are also the long-term potential strength of A shares. According to statistics, at present, the latest scale of wealth management products of non-guaranteed banks is 23 trillion yuan, of which only about 9% is allocation rights, including primary and secondary markets. It is predicted that the allocation ratio of the secondary equity market may rise to about 10% in the future, that is, hundreds of billions of wealth management funds will flow into the stock market.
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(Article Source: shanghai securities news)
(Original title: Institutional strength is quietly gathering. Who will carry the banner of A-share market? )