Statistics show that from 1990 to now (February 20 14), the average inflation rate in China is, if we simulate and calculate according to the annual average inflation rate, 1 100,000 will not be invested, and the actual value after 30 years is only1100,000. Food and clothing is no longer a problem for domestic families, but we still have to face three mountains: children's education, medical care and old-age care.
Practice has proved that after several rounds of bull-bear conversion in China, the fixed investment of the fund can still beat inflation. For example, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 100 index fund is used for simulation. From June 65438+1 October 1 to August 20 121in 2003, the market experienced several rounds of bull-bear conversion, and the index fell by 72%, but the market fluctuation was automatically smoothed out by the fixed investment. The historical expectation of fixed investment in recent ten years is that the annualized expected income will be reached, but the average inflation rate is long-term fixed investment, and it can still outperform inflation.
Choose good fund products for fixed investment.
When choosing the types of fixed investment funds, firstly, bond funds and monetary funds are excluded, and stock funds and hybrid funds are suitable for fixed investment, especially those with good historical performance and large fluctuations, and the expected annualized expected return generated in the end is particularly suitable for fixed investment. Historically speaking, the long-term performance of index funds is good.
How long will the fixed investment last?
Buffett: If you are not going to hold a stock for more than 10 years, don't even hold it for 10 minutes. Similarly, if you are not prepared to make a fixed investment for more than 5 years, please think carefully.
(1) The fixed investment time should not be too short. Only for a long time can we smooth market fluctuations and accumulate wealth through small funds.
(2) Fixed investment needs to span the bull-bear cycle. Judging from the performance of A shares, it is generally a bull-bear conversion cycle every five years. If a fixed investment is to be profitable, it usually has to span at least a complete market cycle.
(3) Fixed investment needs to be combined with financial objectives, and sufficient time can be set aside for fixed investment after it is clear.
(4) The best state of fixed investment is from bear market to bull market, among which index funds perform better.
Research on Intelligent Fixed Investment Model
Intelligent fixed investment is superior to ordinary fixed investment in investment efficiency. However, judging from the total expected annualized expected rate of return, smart fixed investment has not shown obvious advantages. Whether the two are better or worse depends on the specific situation and market environment of specific investment targets, and smart fixed investment must be combined with timing.
Investors still need to face some problems in the process of implementing smart fixed investment: is the method of judging market timing sustainable and effective? Can investors remain overbought in the long-term undervaluation stage and endure long-term waiting and pain in the long-term undervaluation stage? Time is a friend of investment. Is it more reasonable to lose long-term benefits by avoiding short-term risks and reducing investment quotas?
Although intelligent fixed investment reflects higher investment efficiency, it is more complicated to operate and has no obvious advantage in total return on investment. In the current situation that investment channels are relatively scarce, it may not be more meaningful to simply pursue investment efficiency. From this perspective, perhaps ordinary fixed investment is the best choice for fixed investment investors.
Technical analysis method: "Trend fixed investment" is a fixed investment method that judges the market trend according to the "target index" and "moving average combination" set by investors, and the online trading system automatically switches the investment targets between "high-risk funds" (such as stock funds) and "hedge funds" (such as monetary funds) designated by investors.
PE valuation method: it can measure the overall valuation level of the market. In the long run, market valuation will eventually return to a relatively balanced position. Therefore, PE index can be used as a good timing index for investment operation.