The Principles sell well in the United States and China, and Ray Dario's personal charm is also in full swing, and he travels around the world.

This book is divided into three parts. The first part is an autobiography, the second part introduces the principles in life, and the third part talks about the principles in work. Dario's writing is really good and sincere. He not only has a lot of personal experience, but also has a lot of hard knowledge about brain science and psychology.

Then the question is coming. There are more than 4, words, and there are hundreds of principles for writing in bold. What should we learn?

In fact, for any successful case, we can make the following analysis and judgment:

1. If the successful experience he introduced is not repeated very often in his career for some reason, then the credibility of this experience needs to be in doubt, and it is best to check it with others or academic experts.

2. If one thing is done only once and no one else has done it, no matter how legendary it is, it can be ignored as a successful experience.

3. The more experiences are repeated, the greater the reference value.

4. The above is applicable to the analysis of all successful studies.

According to the above viewpoint, there is only one thing worth learning in the book Principles, that is, how to make decisions efficiently.

Qiao Shui Fund is an investment company, not a consulting company, not an industrial company that makes products. Investment companies can't make money only by accurate analysis of things, and they can't make money by their own skills and tastes. There is only one way for them to make money. You have to make decisions, and you have to make a lot of decisions almost every day. Dario said that you can doubt everything, but he said that he is an efficient decision-maker, so you don't need to doubt.

decision-making, in essence, is a kind of behavior based on the estimation of expected income, expected loss value and probability, and then making a choice between different options.

The process only needs three steps:

The probability of success of something is only 2%, the return is $1,, and the loss of failure is $1. Then the expected value is $12 (1*2%-1*8%), so although the probability of success is not high, it is still worth doing because of the huge return and limited loss. On the other hand, if one thing loses a lot, you shouldn't do it, such as driving to see your mobile phone, although the probability of an accident is not high.

This process is simple to say, but it is not easy to use. We need to avoid the following big pit:

-Only estimate the probability and forget to estimate the expected gains and losses.

-focus on what to do and ignore what not to do.

-There is no such thing as not making a decision. Doing nothing is also a decision, with risks and benefits.

-the best decision is not that there is no risk, but that after considering the probability, the benefits outweigh the risks.

-working hard in the known options, not knowing that if you can create one more option, the whole situation will be very different.

-only pay attention to short-term benefits and risks, ignoring the possibility of various evolutions in the medium and long term.

-make important decisions when you are high or low.

It's human nature not to like making decisions. There's nothing to be ashamed of. What we need to pay attention to is what's behind it. Generally speaking, we think the main reason is that we are afraid of taking responsibility. Indeed, this is an important reason, but it is not the most fundamental. Quite simply, if you are sure about the future, what responsibilities are you afraid of? Fear of taking responsibility is nothing more than feeling that you may make mistakes in judgment, so you can't cope with the uncertainty of the future in essence.

we hate uncertainty, which is determined by our genes. In primitive society, the living environment is very bad, and the uncertainty in the future means the risk of starvation or even death. Therefore, all the people eliminated by the theory of evolution are those who pursue certainty, and our genes naturally regard uncertainty as a major risk. Rational decision-making just needs us to predict the possibility of various situations in the future, as well as the size of benefits and risks, which is actually very anti-human.

The so-called decision-making ability is your ability to evaluate the probability, income and risk of each option. The more accurate you are, the higher your decision-making level will be. In other words, decision-making ability is the ability to find certainty as much as possible in uncertainty. How can we do that? This is what Dario is doing. The core of the whole book is actually talking about this matter, but many knowledge points are scattered in different chapters and elaborated from different angles.

I sum up all the relevant contents into three points, namely, memory and learning:

First, attach importance to facts and evidence. Evaluation is subjective, but the evaluation must be based on facts first. If the facts are wrong, the evaluation will lose its meaning. There are some things in our nature that prevent us from getting the truth, such as we are prone to overestimate ourselves, we are more willing to collect information to support our views, and we are not willing to be denied and criticized. Before making a decision, we should analyze our situation as objectively as possible and collect information as comprehensively as possible.

in short, try not to guess if you can.

second, correct views are paramount and elitism. What matters is not whether you are right, but what is right. You should be soberly aware that there are many things you don't know, and others may know more and be more accurate than you. Therefore, you should not reject the opinions from others, but you should pay attention to three things: 1) judge and weigh the credibility of others' opinions. The opinions of experts supported by large sample statistics are more reliable, and those with more than three successful experiences are more reliable. A weighted summary of various opinions according to their credibility can make you get a better judgment. 2) Opinions that can better explain causality are more trustworthy. 3) The more the other party knows about your situation, the greater the value of the advice given. It is irresponsible for both parties to let others give advice without knowing it.

When it comes to collective decision-making, Dario uses elitism, which is also called creative selection. According to the credibility of each person's suggestions, their opinions are weighted to obtain an effect similar to our "democratic centralism" system, which is neither unified nor simple egalitarianism.

third, pay attention to the result of the result. There are short-term and long-term differences in the evaluation of risks and benefits. The easiest place for us to be lazy at ordinary times is that we only pay attention to the short-term and one-off causality, and it is easy to ignore the follow-up results of the results. Sometimes the result of the first step is temptation, and the second step is disaster. And sometimes today is difficult, tomorrow is even more difficult, and the day after tomorrow is beautiful.

Delaying satisfaction is a virtue and the core of efficient decision-making.

in western society, the highest evaluation of a person's ability is to have foresight.

rational decision-making is the best, but it also consumes the most brain resources, and the decision-making speed is very slow. Our brain can be divided into rational brain and perceptual brain, and the evolution time of rational brain is much shorter than that of perceptual brain. Our evolution is along the path of optimal energy consumption ratio, which means that when something happens, our brain first calls the perceptual part, and only when it can't handle it will it call the rational brain. But there is a contradiction here, and we are not sure whether the decision-making of perceptual brain is good enough, especially when we are faced with emotional fluctuation and time pressure. Can we solve this contradiction? Yes, use principles.

Dario said that using principles can help us reduce the number of decisions to about one in 1,. You need to sum up your own principles, and you can also adopt others' principles, but ultimately you need to make your own assessment of its applicability and take responsibility for it yourself.

In other words, if the principles are solidified into the perceptual brain and the subconscious mind, those who can make decisions by principles will first make decisions by principles, and the remaining few will be handed over to the rational brain after screening to make more complicated decisions.

The setting of principles requires you to have this awareness, constantly ponder and accumulate in your daily life, and you also need to have clear goals and values, and know what is important, what is more important and what is most important. And these, no one else can give you, you can only rely on yourself.

the meaning of life is that you can choose freely, and the price of choice is that you need to bear corresponding responsibilities.