1: Investment logic of science and technology industry
Investing in science and technology funds is not a simple holding process, with higher uncertainty and greater volatility. The biggest topic for current science and technology is the domestic substitution of semiconductor chips.
1 technology has no boundaries, so it is impossible to accurately define what is technology or the Internet? Is it a new energy vehicle? Is it domestic software or semiconductor? Is it communication? It is impossible to determine exactly what the boundaries of science and technology are.
2 Enterprises in the field of science and technology have great fluctuations and uncertainties, so it will be more difficult to invest. Although we have seen many leading companies in science and technology, they are all survivors in the big waves.
3 from the current field of science and technology, the focus is on domestic substitution fields, such as domestic software and semiconductor chips. There may be new fields in the future, but domestic substitution may be the core logic of science and technology in recent decades.
4 from the policy point of view, after the 2th National Congress, we will gather institutional strength and vigorously develop the bottleneck field, so the opportunities in the future are still relatively large. Compared with the development of enterprises in new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industry, the field of science and technology may have just entered the growth period, so its investment is more uncertain and its income will be more abundant.
The science and technology field in this paper is relatively narrow, and only narrow science and technology industries are considered, such as chip semiconductor, communication, software technology, etc.
In addition, it is suggested that for Xiaobai, the safe way for such investments is to hold relevant funds, not individual stocks!
II: Screening of major indexes
First, list the mainstream scientific and technological indexes in the current market and the corresponding funds on and off the market. The screening of the index mainly depends on whether it is representative and the size of the whole market (the size of ETF funds in the market)
1. CSI Chip Index < P > Index Meaning: In order to reflect the market performance of listed companies related to the chip industry in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets and enrich indexed investment tools, Compiling the CSI semiconductor chip index
On-site: semiconductor chip etf 159995
Off-site: semiconductor chip etf connection A 8887
2, semiconductor index
Index Meaning: To reflect the overall performance of securities of companies in different industries in the CSI all-index sample, and provide investors with analysis tools.
On-site: semiconductor etf 51248
Off-site: CSI refers to the semiconductor etf connection A 73
3. The index meaning: CSI's 5g communication theme index selects the securities of listed companies whose business is related to 5g construction or application from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets as the index sample, aiming to reflect the overall performance of the securities of listed companies with 5G communication theme.
On-site: CSI 5g communication etf 5155
Off-site: CSI 5g communication theme etf connection A 886
4. CS computer
Index Meaning: CSI computer theme index selects listed company securities involving information technology services, application software, system software, computer hardware and other businesses as index samples to reflect the overall performance of computer theme listed company securities.
On-site: CSI Computer etf 159998
Off-site: Tianhong CSI Computer Theme etf Connection A 1629
5. Digital Economy
Index Meaning: CSI Digital Economy Theme Index selects listed company securities related to digital economy infrastructure and application fields with high degree of digitization from Shanghai and Shenzhen markets as index samples to reflect the overall performance of listed company securities in Shanghai and Shenzhen markets.
On-site: China Securities Digital Economy etf 159658
Off-site: Pengyang China Securities Digital Theme etf Connection A 15787
6. Science and technology leader
Index Meaning: 5 listed company securities with large scale, high market share, strong growth ability and high R&D investment are selected as index samples from the scientific and technological fields of Shanghai and Shenzhen markets.
On-site: etf 515, the leading technology company of CSI
Off-site: ETF connection A7873, the leading technology company of Huabao CSI
III: Comparison of industry index data
First, look at the historical data of these industry indexes from the overall data, mainly observing their performance indicators (P/E ratio, P/B ratio, return on net assets) and related fluctuation data.
regarding the selection of industry funds, the previous article gave a detailed introduction: looking at performance and ROE, valuation and industry cycle, the most perfect combination is high performance, high ROE, low valuation and booming (growth) industries.
Index analysis:
On the whole, both hardware technology and software technology are in the stage of underestimation. From the perspective of the industry performance forecast of institutions in the future, the coincidence growth rate in the next two years will be upward.
judging from the highest increase in the last five years, the overall rate of return of chip semiconductors is the best, but it can also be seen that the whole technology industry is also very volatile.
iv: active fund screening
for OTC funds, companies whose investment targets are concentrated in the consumer category are mainly screened first. In the past five years, the military industry has accounted for more than 5% of the positions, and the total income in the past five years ranks in the forefront, with a market value of more than 1 billion.
The essence of these OTC actively managed funds is to track the index and seek higher excess returns. In the process of screening, long-term returns are mainly considered, and fluctuations are considered accordingly.
1. China Merchants Mobile Internet Industry Stock Fund A(144)
Performance benchmark: CSI Mobile Internet Index yield *8%+China Bond Composite Index yield *2%
Investment objective: The Fund focuses on investing in listed companies related to the mobile Internet industry, and seeks long-term stable appreciation of fund assets through selecting individual stocks and strictly controlling risks.
data information:
from the industry proportion of funds, it can be seen that they are mainly concentrated in semiconductor and computer applications. The top ten positions have a high concentration of 49.83%.
The current position has a price-earnings ratio (PE) of 12.12, a relatively high valuation and a return on net assets (ROE) of 12.2%.
the current scale of the fund is 1.383 billion, with a total income of +52.67% and an annualized rate of return of +8.83% in recent five years, with the largest withdrawal of -47.2% and the largest increase of +231.98%.
2. Taixin Small and Medium-Sized Mixed (2911)
Performance benchmark: CSI 7 Index yield × 8%+CSI Total Bond Index yield × 2%
Investment objective: The Fund pursues long-term stable appreciation of fund assets by investing in small and medium-sized stocks with high growth potential. Under the premise of strictly controlling risks, we will strive to obtain steady income beyond the performance benchmark.
data information:
at present, the industry positions of funds are all concentrated in the semiconductor industry, with the top ten concentration ratio of 86.23%, which is very high.
at present, the price-earnings ratio (PE) of the position is 85.88, the valuation is relatively high, and the return on equity (ROE) is 14.22%.
the current scale of the fund is 1.475 billion, with a total income of +13.6% and an annualized rate of return of +18.13% in recent five years, with the largest withdrawal of -47.34% and the largest increase of +324.42%.
3. Galaxy Innovation Hybrid A (519674)
Performance benchmark: CSI 5 Index yield *75%+SSE government bond index yield *25%
Investment objective: The Fund invests in innovative listed companies with good growth, and pursues long-term stable appreciation of fund assets under the premise of effectively controlling risks.
data information:
at present, the fund is mainly concentrated in semiconductor-related companies, accounting for 92.23%, and the concentration of the top ten positions is 77.33%
. The overall concentration is very high.
at present, the price-earnings ratio (PE) of the position is 92.26, the valuation is relatively high, and the return on equity (ROE) is 16.27%.
the current scale of the fund is 14.588 billion, with a total income of +95.5% and an annualized rate of return of +14.3% in the last five years, with the largest withdrawal of -51.14% and the largest increase of +365.71%.
4. LOF)(16193)
Performance benchmark: 8% × Shanghai and Shenzhen 3 Index yield+2% × Shanghai Stock Exchange government bond index yield
Investment objective: The Fund mainly invests in stocks in booming industries or industries with good expected prosperity, and pursues investment returns beyond the performance benchmark on the premise of strictly controlling risks.
data information:
from the perspective of fund positions, it mainly focuses on semiconductor and computer applications, and it is also a fund with a relatively high proportion of computer applications in science and technology-related funds. The concentration of the top ten positions is 68.56%, which is relatively high.
the current price-earnings ratio (PE) of the position is 138.89, and the valuation is relatively high, and the return on equity (ROE) is 12.6%.
the current scale of the fund is 9.81 billion, with a total income of +146.99% and an annualized rate of return of +19.82% in recent five years, with the largest withdrawal of -51.55% and the largest increase of +37.59%.
Five: Choose actively managed fund or index fund
Compare with historical data, choose representative industry index fund and actively managed industry mixed fund, and pay attention to the priority of pursuing income when the risk (retracement) is similar!
comparing the above two tables (industry index and OTC theme fund), we can see that the yield of OTC theme fund is obviously greater than the industry index.
an argument that is not suitable for the domestic market, we often hear many people tell a story about Buffett betting with several active management funds. The content of the bet is that Buffett and five top active management fund managers compare the income of the S&P 5 and active management funds in five years.
As a result, Buffett won. This story has been circulated in China since Buffett was praised as a stock god, but in fact, it is a scam for the domestic market.
Compared with the long-term income of active management funds in China and the income of the market index, the former completely crushes the income of the market index.
For some specific industries, we still hope to make a comprehensive comparison before making a choice. From the previous data, the long-term return rate of domestic science and technology indexes is obviously lower than that of actively managed funds.
Some possible problems: the fund style drifts and the fund manager leaves. For these two problems, if you feel uncomfortable, you can switch to other active funds, and you don't need to entangle too much.
the management fee of active funds is generally about 1% higher than that of passive funds, but in the long run, this cost is acceptable.
This article starts with the official number: Xiaomi Finance Bank.