In 2018, the number of express parcels exceeded 50 billion, a 50-fold increase from 1 billion in 2010. China’s express delivery has entered a new era of 100 million per day, and China’s express packaging industry is facing major opportunities. According to relevant data, in 2018, the national express delivery industry consumed more than 50 billion express waybills, approximately 5.3 billion woven bags, approximately 24.5 billion plastic bags, 5.7 billion envelopes, approximately 14.3 billion packaging boxes, and approximately 4.3 billion tapes. billion meters. The packaging tape used in China can wrap around the earth 1077 times a year. The prosperity of China's express delivery industry has also greatly promoted the prosperity of the packaging industry.
Most of the materials used in the express packaging process are plastic products. The rapid development of the express delivery industry has brought new development opportunities to the plastics industry, and will become an important place for the downstream demand for plastic products in the future.
According to Zhuochuang’s rough statistics, the packaging categories used in the express delivery process are shown in Table 1:
From the statistics in Table 1, it can be seen that except for carton packaging, which belongs to the agricultural field , the rest of the packaging is plastic. This article will focus on the impact of the booming express delivery industry on the plastics market, focusing on the tapes and recycled plastic products commonly used in express packaging.
(1) Tape master roll
1. What is a tape master roll?
Tape master roll is also called tape semi-finished product, which is the semi-finished product we usually see before the tape is cut. There are many categories of tape master rolls based on different base materials. Express packaging and the tapes used in our daily lives are all products based on BOPP, which is also a category that our Zhuochuang Information has been researching. The tape master roll we describe in this article is the BOPP tape master roll.
The master roll of BOPP tape is made by coating BOPP (the smooth film on the tape) with a layer of butyl acrylate pressure-sensitive glue. After being cut by the slitting plant, it flows into the market and becomes the familiar tape used to seal boxes.
2. Current supply and demand situation of tape master rolls in China
Since the tape industry entered China in 1983, it has developed for more than thirty years. China's tape master roll industry is currently in a relatively mature stage of development, and its productivity is also increasing year by year. According to statistics from Zhuochuang, the production capacity of China's tape mother roll industry reached 3.2246 million tons in 2018, the output was 1.8425 million tons, and the apparent consumption was 1.3549 million tons.
It can be intuitively seen from Figure 1 that China's tape master roll market is currently in an oversupply situation, and the market supply capacity is still in the stage of continuous expansion. According to Zhuochuang's understanding, China's tape master roll industry will once again welcome the "production boom" in 2019. From January to April 2019, the industry added 9 new production lines with a production capacity of nearly 45,000 tons; and in the next 8 months of 2019 Here, Zhuochuang alone has confirmed that it is expected to add 26 production lines with a production capacity of nearly 130,000 tons.
China's tape master roll industry is currently in a stage of oversupply, but production companies are constantly adding new production lines. This not only means the replacement of old production lines in terms of production capacity optimization, but also heralds the future of the tape master roll market. The development prospects are promising, such as the emergence of emerging demand fields, and the continued expansion of demand for tape in the express delivery industry in recent years is part of it.
According to Zhuochuang statistics, China's BOPP tape master roll manufacturers are mainly concentrated in East China, South China and North China. In 2018, the production capacity of the three regions accounted for 85%; in terms of provinces, they are concentrated in Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shandong , Jiangsu, Fujian and Liaoning and other places. In addition to Youyi and AUO Group companies, manufacturing companies include Zhejiang Authority, Zhejiang Benduo, Shandong Meihua, Linyi Alishan, Aria, Zhongshan Yongda, Jiangsu Sidik, Shunde De Nianbao, Foshan Yida, Changchun There are more than 80 companies including Yongwei and Shenyang Tianyuan.
3. Analysis of the express delivery demand for tape master rolls
It can be seen from the data in the table that China’s express delivery industry has developed in full swing in the past ten years, and achieved The number of express delivery items has increased by 10 times. The "13th Five-Year Plan" is coming to an end. The number of express delivery items in China once again exceeded 50 billion in 2018.
Judging from the contribution of express delivery to the tape master roll industry, the proportion of downstream demand in 2010 has grown from 0.70 to 6.78 in 2018, and this is only the proportion of downstream demand. The tape used The volume increased from 5,800 tons in 2010 to 125,000 tons, and the average growth rate from 2010 to 2018 was approximately 47! The rapid development of the express delivery industry has made an obvious contribution to the tape master roll industry.
(2) Recycled plastics
1. Outer packaging bag material for express delivery - recycled PE
Express delivery outer packaging bags, bubble film, etc. are all made of recycled Made of PE. Recycled PE is a kind of recycled plastic. There are two types of raw material sources. One is the floor material or scrap material produced by PE in the process of producing plastic products. This source is relatively small, accounting for less than 10%; the other is PE plastic. Products that still have use value after the end of their service life. This type of waste plastic comes from a wide range of sources and accounts for a large proportion. After being recycled, sorted, cleaned, crushed, and re-granulated, it is recycled PE.
2. The current supply and demand situation of recycled PE in China
As a widely used recycled plastic, the output, import volume and demand of recycled PE have increased year by year in the past ten years. The apparent appearance of recycled PE in 2013 Consumption volume was 8.9467 million tons, an increase of nearly 2.5 times compared with 2006, with an average growth rate of 19.4. In the later period, due to the impact of the tightening of import policies and the tightening of domestic environmental inspections, domestic production, imports and demand were all reduced to a certain extent. By 2018, the apparent consumption of recycled PE dropped to 3.5969 million tons, and the average demand decline rate in the past six years was is -16.7.
Returning to the quick outer packaging bags mentioned, according to Zhuochuang’s research, common gray express bags are mainly produced from recycled PE high-pressure high-quality particles, while white express bags and bubble films are mostly produced from recycled PE PE high-pressure first white or second white particles are produced.
From a price point of view, we choose the raw material of gray express bags: recycled PE high-quality particles to look at the trend in the past two years. Due to the existence of rigid downstream demand, the shipment of high-quality recycled PE granules is good, and its trend is relatively moderate. The overall selling price level has increased from 2017 to 2019. The selling price was at 4,600 yuan/ton in early 2017, and reached a high of 5,950 yuan/ton in mid-May 2018. Yuan/ton, the current price in mid-April 2019 is 5,350 Yuan/ton.
Due to the particularity of the recycled plastics industry, it is difficult to count the proportion of specific designs and colors of high-quality particles and first white and second white particles in the entire recycled PE, but it can also be seen from the following sets of figures The use of recycled PE in express bags is increasing year by year.
According to figures disclosed by the State Postal Administration, the express delivery business volume reached 31.35 billion pieces in 2016, and the total use of plastic bags in the national express delivery industry was approximately 14.7 billion, of which the number of plastic bags directly used by express delivery was approximately 68 billion; in 2017, the national express delivery industry completed a total of 40.06 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 27.8%. The corresponding use of express packaging supplies is still huge, with plastic express bags reaching 8 billion, and the growth rate of express bag usage is 17.6%. According to predictions, my country's express delivery business volume is expected to maintain an average annual compound growth rate of 33.64 between 2016 and 2020, reaching 100 billion pieces by 2020. Judging from such a large increase in express delivery, express packaging bags will continue to increase, and the demand for recycled PE will continue to show a growth trend.
(3) The future development of express delivery is promising and will continue to promote the development of the plastics industry
According to statistics from the State Post Bureau of the People's Republic of China, the express delivery development trend index in 2018 is 92.9, and it is initially expected that the express delivery business volume will exceed 60 billion pieces in 2019, a year-on-year increase of 22. It is expected that the express delivery business revenue in 2019 will exceed 700 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.
In 2017, the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” for the development of the express delivery industry proposed that by 2020, a service network covering the whole country and connecting to the world should be formed. It also proposes development opportunities and directions such as supply-side structural reform, "Internet" action plan, open economic system, and "delegation, regulation and service" reform to provide new momentum and development assistance for the development of China's express delivery industry. In the future, China's express delivery industry will develop more steadily and rapidly. 5G applications will also promote the development model of "Internet manufacturing express delivery" to be more complete. In addition, the resource and environmental constraints in the 13th Five-Year Plan have put forward new requirements for the green development of the express delivery industry. In the future, China The development of the express delivery industry will move towards efficient, fast, green and full coverage.
The sustainable development of the express delivery industry has obviously promoted the plastic packaging industry. Whether it is the contribution to tape or the demand for packaging bags, woven bags, and bubble wrap, it will be a sustainable situation that cannot be replaced by anything else. The rapid development of China's express delivery industry is currently promoting and promoting the plastics industry. (Zhuochuang Information Analysts Feng Yuanyuan and Zhai Qiuping)