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Out? Product? |? Automobile k-line
Review of important events:
On the evening of October 7th, 65438/kloc-0, BYD (SZ:002594) released "February 20 19 Production and Marketing Express". The data shows that in the last month of 20 19, BYD sold 43,200 vehicles, down 38% year-on-year. Last year, BYD's total sales volume was 46 1400 vehicles, down 1 1.39% year-on-year, and only 70.98% of the annual sales target of 650,000 vehicles was achieved.
BYD in 20 19 did not advance by leaps and bounds as it did in 20 18, not only in terms of sales volume, but also lost the title of sales champion of global new energy automobile enterprises.
At the close of 65438+10.8, BYD (SZ:002594) shares closed at 47.28 yuan/share, down1.6%; BYD shares (HK:0 12 1 1) closed at HK$ 38.25 per share, down 1. 16%. However, in recent days, due to the voice of the leaders of relevant departments and the "innovation" of BYD's own battery technology, as of the close of 17, the share price of BYD (SZ:002594) reached 57.95 yuan/share, up 22.56% from the close of 10. BYD (HK:0 12 1 1) shares reached HK$ 48/share, up 25.49% from the closing price before 10.
Focus of attention:
Launched F3 in 2008? Since DM, BYD has been working in the field of new energy vehicles for many years; In 65438+February last year, the number of new energy minibus users reached nearly 730 thousand. As a leader in the new energy vehicle market, BYD's every move has attracted the attention of the industry and consumers, especially Mercedes-Benz and Toyota.
In the second half of 20 19, China's new energy vehicle market entered a transitional period of phased adjustment, and the new energy subsidy policy continued to be implemented. Since July last year, the sales of new energy vehicles in China began to decline significantly.
As a major manufacturer and marketer of new energy vehicles, its influence on BYD is obvious. According to the sales data released by BYD, since July, its sales of new energy vehicles have also begun to decline significantly. In this regard, many people are pessimistic about new energy vehicles.
K-line analysis:
Next, Chek K will analyze BYD's sales in 20 19 years and look forward to its development in 2020.
First, new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles staged a "big reversal"
BYD's sales in June and February last year decreased by 38% year-on-year to 43,200 vehicles, but it did not improve significantly because of the annual car purchase peak in China.
It is worth noting that the sales of BYD's fuel vehicle business and new energy vehicle business are in sharp contrast. In February last year, BYD's new energy vehicles decreased by 72% year-on-year to 654.38+0.3 million, while its fuel vehicles increased by 30.86% to 30,000, the highest value for the whole year last year. For the leaders of new energy vehicles, this reversal is somewhat dramatic, and this trend has already begun to take shape since last August.
On the whole, in 20 19, BYD's new energy vehicles decreased by 7.39% year-on-year, with a cumulative sales of 229,500 vehicles, accounting for 49.7% of the total sales, less than 50%; The traditional fuel vehicles decreased by 15.02% year-on-year, and the cumulative sales volume was 2319,000 vehicles.
Second, the target completion rate is only 70%.
Last year, BYD's total sales volume was 46 1400 vehicles, which was188,000 vehicles different from the sales target of 650,000 vehicles set at the beginning of the year.
In 20 18, BYD sold 500,000 new cars, up 23% year-on-year. Such a good result of "rising against the trend" made BYD's confidence burst, so it set a sales target of 30% growth in 20 19, reaching 650,000 vehicles.
"Source: BYD Production and Marketing Express"
However, with the overall decline of subsidies from 2065438 to June 2009, BYD suffered a great "shock", exposing the disadvantages of BYD's excessive dependence on new energy subsidies.
At the same time, because the traditional fuel vehicles have been scattered and concentrated on electric vehicles in the past few years, BYD fuel vehicles need to continue to make up for the shortcomings.
Third, there is an urgent need to get rid of subsidy dependence.
As can be seen from the K-line chart of sales, BYD's new energy sector began to decline year-on-year from July 20 19.
From July to June last year, BYD's sales of new energy vehicles decreased 1 1.84%, 23.44%, 50.97%, 54.58%, 62.69% and 7 1.92% respectively compared with 20 19 years.
"Source: BYD Production and Marketing Express"
As soon as the news that subsidies dropped sharply in March 2065438+2009 was confirmed, most consumers bought new energy vehicles in advance, which brought them a substantial increase in sales of new energy vehicles and overdrawn consumer demand in advance.
However, BYD did not "sit still". In order to appease consumers and boost sales, BYD is the first in the industry to announce the "guaranteed floor price"-BYD promises that consumers can still enjoy the subsidy policy of 20 18 at the end of 20 19 and 3 10.
Timely "price protection" measures slightly delayed BYD's sales crisis, but the sales volume dropped rapidly from September to June, and in 65438+February, which proved that the subsidy was greatly reduced, and BYD still could not survive.
Fourth, strengthen the offensive of traditional fuel vehicles.
Although affected by subsidies and other factors, the sales of new energy vehicles have entered the downward range, but BYD's fuel vehicle sector has begun to save the market in a low-key manner. Brand-new Qin, BYD Song Pro and other models also quickly seized the market share of fuel vehicles after the fuel version went on the market.
"Source: BYD Production and Marketing Express"
From the K-line chart of sales volume, it can be found that BYD's new energy vehicles have experienced a year-on-year decline for the first time in July, and BYD's fuel vehicle sector has ushered in a month-on-month increase for two consecutive months. Since September, BYD's fuel vehicles have taken over the burden of BYD's performance and started to achieve strong year-on-year growth, which continued until the end of last year. From September to February, BYD's fuel vehicles increased by 35.2%, 37. 1%, 43.9% and 30.86% respectively.
In the end, BYD's sales of fuel vehicles in 20 19 years accounted for nearly 5 1%, surpassing BYD's sales of new energy vehicles.
5. Is it really possible to walk on two legs?
BYD is neck and neck in the field of fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles, and the two "wheels" run faster.
At present, BYD Dynasty series has four models of Qin, Tang, Song and Yuan, covering mainstream markets such as compact cars, small SUVs, compact SUVs and medium-sized SUVs, including fuel version, plug-in hybrid version and pure electric version.
The product layout is perfect, and the market response to BYD's new models is also on the rise. According to relevant statistics, in 20 19, the sales volume of small SUV Yuan series increased by 47.87% year-on-year, and the sales volume of medium SUV Tang series increased by 23.6% year-on-year. 2065438+Song Pro, which was listed in July 2009, sold 92,000 vehicles at the end of the year, and sold over 10,000 vehicles for five consecutive months.
In addition, BYD also brought brand-new Song MAX, Qin and e2 models at the end of 20 19, and plans to launch BYD Han, the fifth product of Dynasty series, in 2020.
Six, selected by the world's auto giants to cooperate.
Last year165438+1October 7, BYD announced that the company and Toyota will set up a pure electric vehicle research and development company, and the new company will be formally established in China in 2020, with Toyota contributing 50% and BYD contributing 50%. The new company will carry out the design, research and development of pure electric vehicles and platforms and components used in automobiles.
In fact, BYD and Toyota reached a cooperation on July 19 last year. According to the cooperation agreement at that time, the two sides will jointly develop pure electric vehicles with cars and low-chassis SUVs, using the Toyota brand, and plan to put them on the China market before 2025. At the same time, the two sides will also * * develop the power batteries needed for the models.
At the same time, with the opening of BYD's e-platform and electrified supply chain, BYD also hopes to spread costs and expand market share through scale.
Seven, for BYD to hand over the 20 19 answer sheet, major brokerage institutions have responded quickly. Although BYD's 20 19 annual performance is not very bright, all major brokerage institutions are optimistic about BYD.
Among them, orient securities, Huaxi Securities, Guotai Junan, soochow securities, China Merchants Securities and China Bank gave BYD a "buy" or "overweight" rating respectively.
However, for foreign auto giants to join the pure electric vehicle market one after another, Tesla will deliver it domestically. Can BYD still achieve the "return of the king"? Time will give the answer soon.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.