Every time a trend comes, it will bring about great changes in an industry. New energy vehicles are currently brewing a new trend: the "vehicle and electricity separation" sales model.

At the press conference of the State Council held on July 23, Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2021-2035)" has been submitted to the State Council, and battery replacement will become the next step. A new consumption hotspot during the planning period. "Charging and battery swapping are both energy supplement methods for electric vehicles. Each has its own advantages and applicable fields and consumer groups. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology encourages companies to explore the application of the 'vehicle-electricity separation' model to meet different market needs."

The new energy vehicle industry has given a clear development direction for the future. It is not difficult to imagine that the past hot scene of investors rushing to build electric vehicles will be replicated. However, this time everyone will follow the trend and make battery-swapping models and battery-swapping stations.

It is said that "if you stand on the hot spot, even a pig can fly to the sky." Can new energy car companies successfully fly if they stand on the new development hot spot of "power swapping"?

Why do government departments attach so much importance to the "vehicle and electricity separation" model? This starts with the bottleneck of the development of electric vehicles.

my country's new energy vehicles have flourished for ten years with the support of a series of favorable policies. Not only has the scale of my country's new energy vehicle market become the largest in the world, but it has also made it difficult for the public to promote the popularization of electric vehicles. Resistances are presented, including cruising range and charging time.

In terms of cruising range, over the years, through the unremitting efforts of power battery manufacturers and OEMs, the current cruising range of pure electric vehicles has exceeded 700 kilometers, and there are many electric vehicles with a working range of more than 500 kilometers. Optional options, such as Weilai, Xpeng, GAC New Energy, BYD, etc., further shorten the cruising range of traditional fuel vehicles.

However, charging time has always been a shortcoming of pure electric vehicles.

Electric vehicles have two modes: fast charging and slow charging. In the slow charging state, it generally takes 8-10 hours to fully charge an electric vehicle, while in the fast charging state, most electric vehicles can be fully charged. 80% of the battery can be charged within one hour, and some electric vehicles can shorten this time to 40 minutes. Despite this, compared with the 5-minute refueling time of a traditional fuel vehicle, the charging time of an electric vehicle is still very long. In a fast-paced metropolis where every second counts, car owners may not have so much leisure time to charge their electric vehicles.

At this time, the "battery swap" mode of "vehicle and battery separation" is a good solution.

The so-called "vehicle and battery separation" means that electric vehicles and batteries are separated. Car owners can own and use vehicles through battery rental plans, purchasing battery swap packages, etc. When the battery of an electric vehicle is low, the owner does not need to spend a lot of time at the charging station to charge the vehicle. He only needs to go to the battery swap station to replace a battery with a full charge and continue to use the vehicle.

For consumers, the "battery swap" mode can not only reduce part of the cost of car purchase (power battery), but also do not have to worry about battery loss, warranty and other issues, let alone fire and spontaneous combustion accidents during the charging process. Because so far, there has been no safety accident involving battery-changing vehicles.

So in 2020, battery swap stations, as an important part of new infrastructure, were included in the government work report for the first time, and new energy vehicle subsidies also provided policy encouragement for the battery swap model.

Xin Guobin said that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will work with relevant departments to vigorously promote the construction of new energy vehicle charging and swapping infrastructure, improve relevant technical standards and management policies, encourage companies to develop battery-swapping mode models according to applicable scenarios, and support Beijing and Hainan and other places to carry out pilot promotions to promote the high-quality development of the new energy vehicle industry.

The formation of every new industry outlet does not appear suddenly, but has already been established, and the same goes for the "power exchange" model.

In early June 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a document to encourage companies to promote new energy vehicles, battery rental and other separate consumption methods for vehicles and electricity. At the end of 2019, Xin Guobin emphasized at the "New Energy Vehicle Battery Swapping Mode Research Symposium" that charging and battery swapping are not antagonistic. Each has its own advantages and characteristics. Various new modes including charging and battery swapping should be encouraged. The electric energy supply model of energy vehicles has developed continuously, continuously improving the convenience of use of new energy vehicles.

Car companies with a keen sense of smell have already begun to explore the "battery swap" model, including launching electric vehicles with battery swap mode and building battery swap stations.

The most successful one is Weilai Automobile. As the only emerging company among the new domestic car-making forces that adopts battery swapping technology, NIO has been laying out the "vehicle and battery separation" business. It has currently built 137 battery swapping stations across the country, covering 61 cities. However, NIO has also encountered obstacles in the process of promoting the "battery swap" model, such as the ownership of battery ownership and inconsistent standards. To this end, NIO plans to establish an independent battery asset management company in August to promote the separation of vehicle and electricity business.

Among traditional car companies, BAIC New Energy is the fastest moving company.

Official information shows that BAIC New Energy started the construction and operation of battery swap stations in 2016. As of April this year, more than 200 battery swap stations have been built across the country, covering Beijing, Xiamen, Guangzhou, Kunming, and Haikou. Waiting for 15 cities. It is said that the battery swap station network layout is an important strategic layout of BAIC New Energy. In the future, BAIC New Energy will focus on Beijing, Xiamen, and Hainan to promote and build areas to create energy management and services, and power battery echelons that can be used as a national demonstration reference. The "model room" used. A month ago, BAIC also implemented the "vehicle and electricity separation" business model for the first time in the taxi field through the Hainan project.

In addition, Geely, SAIC, and Great Wall are also exploring the launch of battery-swapping models and starting to expand in this field. Geely established a wholly-owned subsidiary called Yiyi Battery Swap in 2016, and recently registered the "Yiyi Battery Swap" trademark. The first battery swap model is expected to be launched in Caocao Travel.

As the leader of power battery companies, CATL is also exploring the vehicle-electricity separation model. It not only established an energy storage business company with COSTAR to develop products that integrate energy storage and charging, but also cooperated with State Grid Energy Saving. The company established Xinjiang State Grid Times Energy Storage Development Co., Ltd. and jointly established Shanghai Kuaibo New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. with Baicheng New Energy to explore power grid peak shaving and charging smart microgrids and integrated storage and charging networks, and to enter the vehicle and electricity separation business. Prepare for operations. On July 17 this year, CATL signed a vehicle-battery separation project contract with BAIC New Energy, officially entering the field of battery swap operations.

Is "vehicle and electricity separation" really that good? Is there no risk in this outlet?

Of course not. In fact, after adopting the sales model that separates cars and electricity, car companies will take greater risks.

First of all, car companies have to bear the cost of batteries, and they have to bear the losses when recycling used batteries. The highest cost of pure electric vehicles is the power battery, which accounts for about 40% of the price of the entire vehicle. After the "separation of vehicle and electricity", the vehicle returns to the vehicle and the electricity returns to the electricity. Consumers only need to pay for the cost of the electric vehicle, and the cost of the battery is changed to The car companies bear the responsibility, and the problem of battery performance degradation is also passed on to the car companies.

Secondly, the cost of infrastructure such as battery swap stations is too high, with large initial investment and long return period.

The batteries that a power swap station needs to prepare are calculated at 1,500 yuan per kilowatt-hour. A 60-kilowatt-hour power battery costs 90,000 yuan. A power swap station always has 8 batteries, so the cost of photovoltaics is 720,000 yuan. This does not include charging equipment, site rental, labor and electricity costs.

It is reported that the construction cost of a battery swap station of BAIC New Energy is about 3 million yuan, which does not include the cost of the battery. Due to the current small number of swappable cars and insufficient transportation capacity, it is difficult for the battery swap station to recoup the cost.

In addition, the lack of unified standards for batteries, differences in performance, and the inability to unify battery replacement standards are also a concern for car companies.

In other words, the sales method of "separating cars and electricity" is like a rose with thorns. It smells fragrant, but if you touch it, there is a risk of being pricked.

How to avoid these risks? NIO’s approach of promoting the separation of vehicle and electricity business and establishing an independent battery asset management company gives an idea.

According to media reports, this battery asset management company will launch BaaS (Battery as a Service) products and is currently seeking financing and introducing investment from large energy funds. Power battery giant CATL has Clearly express investment intentions. The reason why Weilai is doing this is to divest the ownership rights of the complete vehicle and battery assets, realize the true separation of vehicle and electricity, introduce investment to reduce its own cost pressure and investment risks, and at the same time, it can use this technology more flexibly. Some resources.

The joining of the power battery giant CATL will provide technical support to NIO, especially in the secondary utilization and recycling of batteries, which will undoubtedly better promote NIO’s vehicle battery separation business. . In other words, this move not only solves the financial pressure of heavy assets, but also introduces technical support. As an operator, it can also open a battery swap platform and provide battery swap services to other car companies. It can be said that it kills multiple birds with one stone.

This case tells us that before the sales model of vehicle-battery separation realizes the logic of commercial closed loop, it will undoubtedly be a relatively ideal state if car companies can form alliances with power batteries and introduce capital support.

The trend of "power replacement" is worth betting on, but it is not necessary to bear all risks yourself.