Currently there are no successful commercial projects, and solar thermal power generation companies are in the research and development stage from system to all aspects. However, the country is already piloting solar thermal power generation projects. For details, please see below

Analysis of the development of solar thermal power generation in China in 2010

Huidian Market Research Report Network News "I have it on hand now 2 billion yuan in cash and 20 billion yuan in funds available in the account, hoping to invest in solar thermal power generation projects." In early 2010, a multinational company engaged in traditional energy development told a person from the Institute of Electrical Engineering of the Chinese Academy of Sciences that the institute was the largest solar thermal power generation company in China. Leading institution for research.

There are still a lot of huge funds eager to find similar investment channels. Faced with the increasing scarcity of traditional energy and the unshakable monopoly of central enterprises, new energy has naturally become one of the most ideal exports. In recent times, following the investment boom in hydropower, wind power, nuclear power, and photovoltaic power generation, solar thermal power generation has gradually heated up and entered the vision of investors and strategic decision-makers.

On October 20, the 50-MW trough solar thermal power generation concession demonstration project (hereinafter referred to as the 50-MW thermal power project) located in Ordos, Inner Mongolia, was officially invited to bid. This is the country’s first commercial solar thermal power generation project. The power generation project is expected to initially generate 120 million kilowatt-hours of electricity annually. The industry hopes to use this project to consider domestic R&D technologies, explore business models that are in line with national conditions, and drive large-scale market development.

The "Medium and Long-term Development Plan for Renewable Energy" promulgated in 2007 pointed out that during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, large-scale grid-connected solar photovoltaic power station demonstration projects will be constructed in Dunhuang, Gansu and Lhasa, Tibet. , Xinjiang and other places to build solar thermal power generation demonstration projects. By 2020, the total capacity of solar photovoltaic power stations nationwide will reach 2,000 MW, and the total solar thermal power generation capacity will also reach 2,000 MW.

But currently, the progress of photothermal power generation lags far behind that of photovoltaics. "Compared with the price of photovoltaic electricity, the price of solar thermal electricity is still very high. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have always been concerned about the development of solar thermal power generation." An insider involved in the feasibility study of the Ordos project told reporters, "After all, renewable energy funds are limited, and decision-making The government is still more inclined to choose low-cost renewable energy to develop first.”

According to the arrangements of the “Renewable Energy Special Fund Management Measures (Preliminary Draft)” formulated by the Ministry of Finance in April this year, the fund will be mainly used. Subsidizing the financial costs incurred by grid companies in accepting renewable energy electricity comes from additional revenue from renewable energy electricity prices and special funds from the Ministry of Finance. Based on the current renewable energy surcharge of 4 cents per kilowatt-hour, the total amount of the fund is approximately 12 billion yuan per year.

Since CSP does not have the disadvantages of instability and discontinuity in new energy sources such as photovoltaics and wind power, many countries position it as the basic load of electricity in future energy planning. According to the heat collection method, photothermal power generation can be divided into three types: trough type, tower type, and dish type. The trough type is the most commercially feasible.

Huang Xiang, chief scientist of the 973 (National Key Basic Research Program) solar thermal power generation project and vice chairman of the China Electrical Association, estimates that by 2020, China’s solar thermal power generation market will reach 22.5 trillion to 300,000 billion, the total thermal power generation can account for 30-40% of the total annual power generation.

However, there are also pessimists. Many companies engaged in manufacturing solar thermal power generation equipment said in interviews with reporters that although the thermal power market has good prospects, it is very difficult to scale up. At present, it is just a "house on a sand table."

Seven-year delay

The Ordos 50-MW thermal power project began to be planned as early as 2003. It was originally scheduled to be tendered in the first quarter of 2010, but the electricity price plan has been pending, resulting in repeated bidding delays. procrastination.

At the Sino-German Science and Technology Forum held in 2006, the project was officially identified as a Sino-German cooperation project. In 2007, we received a letter of approval from the National Development and Reform Commission to carry out preliminary work.

Subsequently, the German Solar Millennium Company (hereinafter referred to as Sun Millennium) and Inner Mongolia Green Energy New Energy Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Green Energy) jointly established Inner Mongolia Stepp Solar Development Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Stepp), specializing in the Project feasibility study report and implementation work. Among them, Green Energy holds 75% of the shares and Sun Millennium holds 25%.

Xue Jigang, general manager of the Green Energy Company, told reporters that at the beginning of the project, Sun Millennium planned to finance and operate the project by itself, but according to relevant Chinese regulations, the proportion of foreign investment in electricity cannot exceed 25%. Therefore, Sun Millennium found Green Energy as a partner.

According to the project feasibility study report in October 2008, the total cost of the project is approximately 1.8 billion yuan, and the average annual total power generation is approximately 120 million kilowatt hours. Calculated based on a 25-year operation period, if To achieve a capital internal rate of return of 8, the after-tax on-grid electricity price needs to reach 2.26 yuan/kWh.

“Compared with foreign electricity prices, our prices are still lower.” Xue Jigang explained that even compared with the photovoltaic electricity prices approved by the National Development and Reform Commission that year, CSP still has a great competitive advantage. At that time, the electricity prices approved by the National Development and Reform Commission for the Shanghai Chongming Island Photovoltaic Project and the Ordos Concentrated Photovoltaic Project in Inner Mongolia were both above 4 yuan/kWh.

Unpredictably, just when Staples submitted the project to the National Development and Reform Commission with an on-grid electricity price of 2.26 yuan/kWh, the financial crisis occurred, the price of photovoltaic modules plummeted, and the country’s first photovoltaic grid-connected power generation demonstration project— —The final winning bid price for the Dunhuang 10 MW solar energy project was only 1.09 yuan/kWh.

This sudden change directly led to the National Development and Reform Commission rejecting Shi Depu's plan. After that, Shi Depu lowered the electricity price to 1.8 yuan/kWh, but still failed to obtain permission because the electricity price was too high.

“The difference between the approved electricity price and the thermal power on-grid price needs to be paid by the government.” Jiang Silaf, the head of the scientific research work of the Ordos project, said that the thermal power on-grid price in Inner Mongolia is 0.285 yuan/kWh, and the difference between the two is close to 2 yuan per kilowatt hour. Based on this calculation, the state needs about 200 million yuan in financial subsidies every year, which will be 5 billion yuan in 25 years.

People close to the National Energy Administration told reporters that the government can afford the subsidy for a project, but once a demonstration is established, other places will follow suit and the decision-makers are worried that they will not be able to cope with it. In addition, photovoltaic grid-connected electricity prices have dropped again and again after the concession bidding, and policy-making departments intend to follow suit.

On March 25, 2010, the National Energy Administration once again issued the "Reply Letter on the Construction of Inner Mongolia Solar Thermal Power Generation Demonstration Project" and decided to construct the project through concession bidding and select investments through public bidding. The regulator determines the on-grid electricity price and requires that the localization rate of power station equipment and components based on value must reach above 60%.

But this reply did not allow the Ordos project to be started immediately. "Previous prices were calculated based on the imported prices of equipment and components. Since China does not have a sample to draw from, its localization capabilities have yet to be examined," Xue Jigang said.

While Green Energy is conducting preliminary inspections to meet localization rate requirements, competition in the photovoltaic power generation market is becoming increasingly fierce. In August, the country's second batch of large-scale photovoltaic power station concession projects opened bids, and the on-grid electricity prices of 13 projects were all less than 1 yuan/kWh. The generally low prices far exceeding expectations have made the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration feel embarrassed (for details, see the 18th issue of "Optoelectronics Low Price Fight" in 2010).

Affected by this, there was news within the National Energy Administration that the concession bidding for the 50-megawatt thermal power project was postponed indefinitely.

“At the corporate level, the solar thermal power generation market has long been launched, but if there is no commercial project launched, companies are likely to change course after catching the government’s inaction, and this market will also There’s no way to cultivate it,” a solar equipment manufacturer told reporters.

In September, the National Energy Administration convened consecutive internal meetings with prospective investors and related equipment providers. One and a half months later, the 50-megawatt thermal power project finally issued a bidding announcement after seven years of preparation. The bidding period for the total investor of the project is three months, ending on December 20. The bid opening time is scheduled for January 20, 2011, and the project construction period is 30 months.

NDRC swings

In the past seven years, the on-grid electricity price has been affecting the attitude of the NDRC. It is like a sword hanging over the heads of policymakers. Even if the project has been opened for bidding, this One worry has not dissipated.

“The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have been very cautious, serious and worried about this project.” A person close to the National Development and Reform Commission told reporters.

On May 10, at the project meeting of the new energy industry research group of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” strategic emerging industry development key consulting and research project, solar thermal power generation was required to be stated in detail as a key point.

The reporter learned that for solar thermal power generation, the original intention of the National Development and Reform Commission was to follow the practice of photovoltaic power generation, first approve one or two projects to start the market, and then explore the benchmark on-grid electricity price through concession bidding, and use this to stimulate the industry. Towards large-scale development. This is also the reason why the Ordos project went through the approval process in the first place.

However, the sharp drop in the on-grid electricity price of photovoltaic power generation and the shortage of renewable energy funds have put the National Development and Reform Commission in a dilemma. The above-mentioned person close to the National Development and Reform Commission said that on the one hand, the National Development and Reform Commission has been unable to give a final conclusion as to where the electricity price should be approved. There are no demonstration projects in China that can be used as reference, and the industrial chain is not mature and complete. As a result, the National Development and Reform Commission has neither reference standards nor accurate calculations. “The government doesn’t know how much it should set, so naturally it doesn’t dare to approve it. They don’t know whether the approval is reasonable.” "

On the other hand, photovoltaic on-grid electricity prices have dropped significantly, and subsidies to support solar thermal can be doubled for photovoltaics. "So we decided to develop photovoltaics first and wait until electricity prices can drop more. , and then add solar heat. After all, these subsidies will eventually be spread to users, and the result will be an increase in electricity prices, which will also bring a lot of controversy to the National Development and Reform Commission."

In March, the National Development and Reform Commission proposed a concession bidding method and a localization rate requirement of 60%, hoping to reduce the price of solar thermal power.

Some experts pointed out that the construction cost of solar thermal power stations directly affects the price of thermal power grid connection. If the cost per kilowatt unit is reduced to less than 10,000 yuan, the on-grid electricity price can be reduced to less than 1 yuan/kilowatt hour, and gradually approach the current wind power benchmark electricity price of 0.51 yuan to 0.61 yuan per kilowatt hour.

At one time, the National Development and Reform Commission hoped to cooperate with the EU. The reporter learned that in August, Shi Lishan, deputy director of the New Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, and others made a special trip to Spain to inspect the solar thermal power generation project after attending the Brussels Energy Conference.

Before and after, Shi had contacted the EU many times, hoping that the EU would strongly support this Sino-German government cooperation project in the form of grants or subsidized loans. The purpose was to reduce the costs paid by China and lower electricity prices so that Start the project as soon as possible.

“The EU has not agreed, otherwise it may still adopt the method of approved electricity prices.” People familiar with the matter revealed that until half a month before the bidding announcement was issued for this project, the National Development and Reform Commission was still making final efforts, but the negotiation was never concluded.” When various methods fail, the only option is to invite tenders.”

The reporter learned that in order to curb the excessively high price of solar thermal electricity, the National Development and Reform Commission also specially added a "special clause" in the bidding document-the electricity price of this bidding shall not be higher than the photovoltaic electricity price that has been approved by the state. Currently, among the approved photovoltaic on-grid electricity prices, the highest price is 1.15 yuan/kWh.

This "special provision" originated from an internal coordination meeting organized by the National Energy Administration in September. Seventy-eight intended investors and five or six equipment suppliers, including Huadian, China General Nuclear Power, Datang, Huaneng, and Guodian, all attended the meeting. At the meeting, CGN, Datang, and Guodian all said that electricity prices below 1.15 yuan could be used, and the others did not comment. The company did not immediately reflect that the price was too low.

Xue Jigang told reporters that according to the results of previous inquiries from various equipment manufacturers, the electricity price of around 1.5 yuan/kWh is more suitable, but the National Development and Reform Commission still thinks it is too high. "After all, I am asking for a price, and I have not talked about the cost issue after large-scale production. Maybe there is no problem if a large enterprise negotiates a price of 1.15 yuan."

In fact, I am not worried about the high electricity price. , the National Development and Reform Commission is also wary of the possible ultra-low electricity prices. The reporter learned that in order to avoid vicious competition during the bidding process, the technical plan will be reviewed first during the bid evaluation, and the price bid will be reviewed after it is qualified. Electricity price accounts for about 70% of the factors considered.

The house on the sandbox

After seven years of preparation, it has finally been launched. This positive signal released by the government has made those who are involved in it rejoicing.

Wang Zhifeng, leader of the overall team of the 863 solar thermal power generation project and researcher at the Institute of Electrical Engineering of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that the 50-megawatt thermal power project will not only trigger the awakening of the solar thermal power generation industry, but also the awakening of the entire thermal power generation industry chain. Including power companies, equipment manufacturing companies, banks, investors, etc., solar thermal power generation is expected to become the next blue ocean of new energy investment.

Many voices believe that it is "too hasty". The development process of the new energy industry generally starts with technology research and development, and then enters the commercial promotion stage after successful test demonstrations.

At present, domestic research and development work is limited to research and development. Although the experimental demonstration project is under construction, the results are not yet known. In addition, the country has not issued targeted support policies, which is not enough to support this commercial project with a relatively small installed capacity. .

A person in charge of a central enterprise engaged in photothermal research and utilization said in an interview with reporters, "Our current independent research and development is a bit regardless of cost, just for independent intellectual property rights, but the cost has not been reduced. Commercial operation In terms of standardization, management, maintenance and other standard systems and profit models, as well as a complete chain of finance, financing, construction, industrial chain system, policy management, etc., have not yet been formed, and there is no possibility of commercialization. ”

The fact that cannot be ignored is that the core technologies in the thermoelectric industry chain, such as system integration, collector tubes, condensers, etc., are still in the hands of foreign companies. If they cannot be solved, it will seriously hinder the large-scale development of the market. This is also a requirement of the National Development and Reform Commission50 An important reason for the localization rate of megawatt thermal power projects.

The preliminary localization research results of the 50-MW thermal power project are not optimistic. In terms of system integration, currently only two companies, AVIC and Huadian Engineering, are building complete power generation test systems. Since they have not yet been put into practical use, their completeness, maturity, and reliability cannot be proven, which has become a worrying issue.

As for the collector tube, although many companies such as Beijing Solar Energy Research Institute, Huangming Solar Energy, and Shenzhen Verizhen Solar Energy are engaged in independent research and development, they are currently only in the sample production stage, and there is no engineering verification, mass production capacity and The quality is unknown.

As for the condenser mirror, the bending accuracy and reflectivity of mirror products mainly rely on advanced equipment to ensure it. It is understood that the world's third production line imported from abroad by Zhejiang Daming Glass is still in the process of transportation. If the installation is completed by the end of the year, it may be available for delivery next year. If the goods cannot be delivered on time, there will be no other domestic manufacturer that can provide products that meet the same technical level requirements abroad.

But foreign companies still do not want to transfer their technology to China, even if they use market share exchange. The rapid scale-up of China's photovoltaic industry began when foreign companies transferred all photovoltaic equipment manufacturing industries to China. However, there is no such opportunity in the field of photothermal power generation.

It is reported that Spain’s largest solar energy company, Abengoa Solar, has been stationed in China for four or five years. It has always hoped to operate projects independently in China and is unwilling to conduct technical cooperation with local Chinese companies. .

The person in charge of the aforementioned central enterprise said that the core technology of solar thermal power generation is monopolized by large foreign companies. There is no pollution pressure and the returns are generous. For example, the profit of the collector tube can reach 200-300, and foreign companies have no motivation to transfer. . "We have discussed cooperation with large companies such as Siemens and Abengo, and promised to help them get projects in China, but required technical cooperation, but these companies are not willing to exchange technology for projects."

"No matter what Whoever wins the bid will not be able to do the detailed design in China, nor can the installation and maintenance of the light field be done in China," an industry insider who did not want to be named told reporters, "I hope that the investor who wins the bid can join forces with a foreign company to have a better chance of success. It will be even bigger.”

The entry of central enterprises

“The state wants to control electricity prices within a certain range, but they don’t know much about thermal power generation, and they think a series of problems are Small matters can be solved by oneself on specific projects." Huang Xiang, who participated in the entire process of the Ordos project, told reporters that he did not agree with the 1.15 yuan/kWh electricity price limit set by the National Development and Reform Commission.

Huang Xiang believes, “For the first or first few projects, we should not put too many demands on electricity prices. We should not just think about making one with a particularly low price, but make a good one. You can’t just look at the price.”

What’s even more unfavorable is that the Ordos project, which has taken many years, has already faced multiple additional costs in its inception. It is understood that after several years of development, the cost of preliminary exploration and planning consultation for this project has reached 30 million yuan, which needs to be paid by the winning bidder.

In addition, the project is located in Baragon Town, Hangjin Banner, Ordos, covering an area of ??about 1.95 square kilometers, and the land cost is about 40 million yuan to 50 million yuan. "This is a piece of land that can develop farmland and pasture. , the price is high, and the location selection is not very reasonable. In fact, there is a lot of land that costs tens of dollars per acre or even for free, which is more suitable for the construction of thermal power stations.”

Concentrated solar power generation is only suitable for annual sunlight radiation. In areas above 2000 kWh/m2, and the land slope cannot exceed 3, the annual water consumption of this project is about 150,000 m3, which is basically the same as thermal power. However, the project site has insufficient water resources and can only use air cooling (air cooling). This not only leads to a possible decrease in the power conversion rate, but also increases the investment cost. It is unreasonable to digest it with the above-mentioned electricity price.

The possible result of the strict requirements on price ceilings is that private enterprises with small financial strength, weak financing capabilities and weak anti-risk capabilities are shut out, and central enterprises with strong strength and pressure to save energy and reduce emissions are shut out. Appearing together again. The reporter learned that as of mid-November, CGN, Datang, Guodian, CECEP and Abengo had purchased bids, with central enterprises accounting for 80%.

“Every power generation group is very optimistic about new energy.” A person in charge of the five major power giants told reporters bluntly, “In order to increase the share of renewable energy, everyone is working very hard.”

At present, the five major power generation groups have their own small-scale solar thermal power generation demonstration projects. Some analysts pointed out that these companies may significantly lower bidding prices by expanding their scale in the future in order to win 50 MW thermal power projects first. The reason is self-evident. The larger the scale of solar thermal power generation, the lower the cost of electricity per kilowatt hour. The projects won can be used as part of larger-capacity power stations in the future. They win the bid with low electricity prices first, and then allocate the costs to subsequent construction projects.

There are also media reports that major power groups have begun to enclose territory in the field of photothermal power generation. Domestic land resources suitable for the development of photothermal power generation are limited. "Whoever starts the project first will get the land, and everyone will naturally flock to it, and a large amount of land will be reserved for subsequent expansion."

Three years ago, the five major power generation companies Among the group, only Huadian has followed the Chinese Academy of Sciences in conducting demonstration projects. In the past six months, about 3 million kilowatts of thermal power projects have completed project proposals, and several major power giants have even operated some undisclosed projects privately. Personnel from the Guodian Group's Turpan CSP project once said that its project is only 100 kilowatts, but the land area is several thousand acres, precisely for the purpose of large-scale expansion in the future.

The ultra-low-price monopoly situation of central enterprises that has already appeared in photovoltaic power generation seems to be happening again in the field of photothermal power generation. The result is that if the low price of thermal power continues, the return on investment cannot be improved, and it will not be able to attract more social capital to participate, which will also affect the introduction of targeted subsidy policies.

“The government does not have enough awareness of solar thermal power projects and does not know the market prospects that well.” The aforementioned thermal power equipment manufacturer said that in order for thermal power projects to be able to be improved stably in the long term, they must be targeted. Provide policy support so that bank financing will follow suit.

There are contradictions at the decision-making level. For example, ultra-white glass is the basic raw material for the production of condensers required for photothermal power generation, but glass manufacturing has been classified by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology as a key area for phasing out backward production capacity. Banks adopt a "one size fits all" approach. Stopping lending to the glass manufacturing industry will inevitably affect the production of upstream raw materials needed for photothermal power generation.

In August 2010, the American Energy Foundation commissioned the Shanghai Zhongke Clean Energy Technology Development Center to conduct research on China’s solar thermal power generation market. The conclusion of the survey is that China's support for renewable energy is positively correlated with the degree of emphasis. Although the types of support policies are relatively complete, there is a phenomenon of following the trend of policies, which is not long-term and stable.

“Today’s energy boom brings a swarm of policies; tomorrow’s energy boom, policies here suddenly disappear and all go to that area. This will prevent investors from seeing a stable market. Return." Gong Siyuan, the above-mentioned research director, told reporters.

Analytical reports.