The development of the "BRICS" has diverged in the post-crisis era. Data show that the year-on-year GDP growth rates of Brazil, Russia, India and China in the third quarter of 2010 reached 6.7, 2.7, 8.9 and 9.6 respectively. Except for Russia, the economic growth rates of the other three countries are much higher than those of developed economies such as the United States, Europe, and Japan in the same period. According to the latest forecast, the economic growth rates of the "BRICS" in 2011 are 5, 4.2, 9 and 10 respectively.
The stock markets of the BRIC countries have performed differently since 2010. As of December 20, 2010, Brazil's Sao Paulo BOVESPA index fell by 1.93, Russia's RTSI index rose by 20.42, India's Bombay Sensitive Index rose by 13.88, and China's Shanghai Composite Index fell by 12.94. In 2013, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) BRIC The cumulative increase of the four-country index was 3.46, which was lower than the 11.84 increase of the S&P 500 index during the same period.
The "BRICS" cooperation mechanism was initially formed at this meeting. After discussions among the four countries, it was decided to absorb South Africa to join and form the "BRICS Five". It just so happens that the first letter of South Africa is S, which happens to be the plural of BRIC. It seems that there is some divine will.
Now, as the leaders of the five countries gather together for the first time, there is naturally a lot to talk about. The most important issue is undoubtedly the economy. After the financial crisis, the risk warning of a second dip in the world economy has not been lifted, and central banks of various countries are facing pressure to raise interest rates. At this moment, the leaders of the five countries can coordinate economic policies and deepen economic and trade cooperation, which will not only benefit the economic development of each country, but also It is also good for the world economy.
As major emerging market countries, the BRICS countries own 26% of the world's territory, 42% of the world's population, 20% of the world's GDP, 15% of the world's trade volume, and contribute about 50% to world economic growth. According to statistics from the International Monetary Fund, from 2006 to 2008, the economic parity growth rate of the four countries was 10.7. With the rapid economic growth of the four countries, their international influence is increasing day by day.
O'Neill was overjoyed by the popularity of the "BRIC" concept, so he struck while the iron was hot and launched the so-called "Eleven Golden and Diamond Countries", including Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Korea, Vietnam, Turkey, the Philippines, Egypt, Pakistan, Iran and Bangladesh are 11 emerging economies.
Subsequently, HSBC also joined the "emerging chorus" and proposed that the future global economy will belong to the "CIVETS", namely Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa. The six countries have An enviable demographic structure with huge growth potential.
Esia, chief economist of BBVA, introduced the concept of "Emerging and Growth-Leading Economies (EAGLEs)" to reporters from the China Securities Journal, which is measured by its contribution to global economic growth. The "shortlist" is screened year by year. In addition to the BRIC countries, the list now includes South Korea, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, Egypt and Taiwan. Compared with the "11 Golden and Diamond Countries" and the "6 Civet Cat Countries", the leading emerging economies are based on the absolute value of economic increment, emphasize dynamic concepts, and have clear standards.
The lively "emerging choir" is illustrating a trend; that is, networking promotes the process of globalization, reduces transaction costs for global investors, and also changes the learning curve of economic development. The post-crisis era has given emerging economies a broader stage for performance, causing Japan's "single-flock" model of guiding industrial transfer in the Asia-Pacific region in the second half of the last century to gradually transform into a "multi-flock" model with multiple blooms.
This has also pushed up the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which measures the stock markets of emerging economies. As of December 20, 2012, its cumulative increase has reached 12.28, which is much higher than the MSCI World Index, which measures the stock market performance of developed economies. The index increased by 7.82.
China, Russia, India and Pakistan have unanimously agreed to absorb South Africa into the "BRICS" cooperation mechanism as a full member. More emerging economies may join this cooperation mechanism in the future.
2010 was undoubtedly lucky for South Africa.
In the middle of the year, the World Cup with the sound of "vuvuzelas" reminded fans around the world of this vibrant African country; and at the end of the year, another gift gave South Africa the important symbol of the "Fifth BRIC" .
Eight years after the concept was proposed, in June 2009, the leaders of the four countries met for the first time in Yekaterinburg, Russia, and the "BRIC" evolved into an economic cooperation mechanism. In April 2010, the second "BRIC" summit was held in Brazil, and cooperation among the four countries took a further step.
The "Blue Book of Emerging Economies BRICS Development Report 2013" published by China Social Sciences Literature Press on March 26 shows that "in 2012, the total economic output of the BRICS countries accounted for approximately 25% of the volume, and the total trade volume accounts for about 17% of the world. In 2012, the total trade volume between China and Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa reached 300 billion US dollars
With the gradual formation of the "BRICS" cooperation mechanism As representatives of the world's emerging economies, the international influence of the "BRIC" countries is also increasing.
South Africa's "Business Daily" believes that South Africa, as the most influential African country in the world, has joined the "BRICS" cooperation mechanism. , can better represent the interests of African countries and seek greater space for international cooperation for Africa's economic development.
Some experts have questioned whether South Africa meets the "BRICS" standards. It is based on the rapid economic growth and relatively large population of these countries. According to World Bank data in 2009, South Africa's economic scale ranks 31st in the world, less than the smallest among the "BRIC countries" A quarter of Russia’s economy
However, some analysts said that given South Africa’s important role in Africa, inviting South Africa to “join the EU” would be a great benefit to South Africa and the “BRICS” cooperation mechanism. It will be a win-win move.
O'Neill, who first proposed the concept of "BRIC", wrote in the Financial Times that there are currently more than 40 countries on the African continent, and no single country among them can compete with " "BRIC". But if these more than forty countries are considered as a whole, the growth potential of the African continent's economic scale can be comparable to that of the "BRIC" countries.
And South Africa is the largest in Africa It is one of the largest economies and most influential countries in the world. Its GDP accounts for about one-third of the total economic output of sub-Saharan African countries, and it plays an important leading role in regional economic development.
According to data, South Africa is the largest energy producer and consumer in Africa, as well as the largest producer of gold, platinum and palladium. Its position in the world market cannot be ignored. Moreover, South Africa-related companies are engaged in Africa's finance, electricity, telecommunications, construction, and other industries. Agriculture and other industries play a vital role. It is also the African representative in many important international organizations. It was once the only African member of the G8 5 Dialogue with Leaders of Developing Countries and is currently the only African member of the G20. /p>
Because South Africa is the representative of the African continent in many aspects, its participation will further expand the international influence of the "BRICS" cooperation mechanism and become the gateway for the "BRICS" to enter Africa. .
In addition, economic cooperation will also drive political cooperation between the "BRIC" countries and African countries, thereby enhancing the voice of emerging market countries in dealing with international issues.
" The "BRICS" will soon become history, and a more broadly representative "BRICS" will appear on the international stage. As the "BRICS" cooperation mechanism becomes increasingly mature, there may be more emerging economies in the future By joining in, the "BRICS" countries with greatly increased "weight" will play a more important role in international political and economic affairs.
Although this move was first proposed by Russia and made after full consultation among the four countries, inviting South Africa to join the "BRIC" is more focused on geopolitical considerations than on out of necessity for economic relations.
Although South Africa is the largest economy on the African continent (at the same time, China is also South Africa's largest trading partner), but South Africa's economy is still small.
In 2009, South Africa's total population was 49.32 million, and its GDP was US$288.848 billion, an increase of 4.6% from US$276.274 billion in 2008. The South African government predicts that South Africa's GDP growth rate will reach 3 in 2010, including The World Cup in South Africa contributed 0.5 to economic growth. South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan recently predicted that South Africa's GDP growth rates from 2011 to 2013 will be 3.5, 4.1 and 4.4 respectively.
South Africa's economic scale is far less than 30% of that of Russia, the smallest among the "BRIC countries", and South Africa's economic growth rate is also lower than the average level of ASEAN. On the other hand, in terms of per capita GDP, South Africa has reached US$5,857 in 2009, far exceeding the average level of emerging economies and entering the ranks of relatively developed countries. Therefore, the invitation to South Africa to join the "BRICS" should not be considered from the perspective of economic development level.
If we follow the original intention of Jim O'Neill, who first invented the term "BRIC", from the perspective of population size and economic development speed, Indonesia is more qualified than South Africa to be the next one to be invited to join. Countries in the "BRICS" group.
Indonesia is the largest economy in ASEAN, whether in terms of population size, economic scale or economic growth rate; Indonesia far exceeds South Africa. More importantly, the reason why the "BRIC" countries have received global attention and attention is because they are the "leaders" of emerging economies. From the perspective of the country's economic development stage, Indonesia is an emerging economy, while South Africa is It is already a relatively economically developed country.