judging from the change and performance of the market, there are opportunities and huge profits, as well as risks and challenges.
Let's take a look at the market:
1. The corn market has risen, and the war for grabbing grain has broken out.
In the first three weeks, the corn market fluctuated weakly, and the average purchase price of corn enterprises all over the country once retreated to around 2,6-2,7 yuan, but after a week's rise, the average increase was about 1 yuan.
At present, the corn market is still rising. On March 2nd, the market showed that there were 19 corn enterprises rising, mainly in Shandong, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei and other provinces, with the rising range ranging from 1-4 yuan, which was narrower than that on March 1st.
people in the industry have different opinions about the continuous strength of the corn market. Some people think that the rising market in April and May is expected to come early, while others think that it is a chain reaction caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which brings temporary fluctuations and the real rebound market has not yet arrived.
personally, however, under the international situation of Russia-Ukraine conflict, corn exports will definitely be affected. According to the data, Ukraine's corn exports rank 433.5 million tons in the world, accounting for 16% of the global export volume.
Russia also has an export volume of 4.5 million tons, accounting for 2.2% of the world.
On the other hand, the low point of the corn market may have appeared in February, and the current high probability is the inflection point of the market rise.
another point is that according to the current land rent, fertilizer price, labor price and other factors, the current corn price is not high.
2. Wheat has hit record highs, and 1.6 yuan has stepped on it.
When it comes to the wheat market, it may be beyond many people's expectation, because many people set the ceiling of the price at 1.5 yuan, but the market is the market, and some enterprises have already broken through the high position in 1.6 yuan.
We learned from the wheat futures market that CNN reported on March 1st that wheat futures rose by about 5.35% on Tuesday, reaching the highest price in 14 years since 28.
judging from the purchasing price of domestic flour enterprises, it has been rising for about 1 consecutive days. The price has risen from 1.44-1.48 yuan/kg at the beginning to 1.52-1.62 yuan/kg at present, and the increase band is quite obvious.
On March 2nd, the market showed that it was a full house today. * * * There were 29 wheat processing enterprises that rose, and the increase rate was also very considerable. The top enterprises that rose were: Yongming flour industry rose by 11 yuan per ton, with a price of 3,14 yuan/ton; Zhoukou Wudeli rose by 1 yuan, 3,1 yuan/ton; Suqian Wudeli rose by 1 yuan, 3,12 yuan/ton; Guoyang Zhengyu flour rose by 1 yuan, 312 yuan/ton.
There are also many enterprises such as Baixiang Wudeli, Henan Mu Yuan, Luohe COFCO, Zhoukou Luwang, etc., which have increased by 8 yuan/ton. See the following table for specific quotations:
It is estimated that 6% of the increase in wheat prices is due to international factors, while domestic factors have little influence on wheat prices. As we all know, Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, and Ukraine ranks fifth. The wheat exports of the two countries account for 29% of the global wheat exports, nearly 3%.
However, due to China's abundant grain reserves, the impact will be discounted to some extent. Personally, it is estimated that there should be no problem for wheat to enter 1.6 yuan as a whole, but it is unlikely that it will continue to rise.
3, the pig price does not rise every good time, and the market is worrying
After the Spring Festival, the pig market has shown a trend of weak consolidation. Although it has stabilized in the last week (the average price of three yuan pigs outside the country was 6.18 yuan/kg on March 2), there is still no sign of rising, especially in recent days, China Storage Network released important good news, and the first pork purchasing and storage work in 222 was started on March 3 and 4.
It can be said that this is definitely a "heavy benefit" for the live pig market, but the market did not buy it, and there was no obvious increase as usual.
On March 3rd, the pig price system showed that the market only rose in Chongqing and Sichuan provinces, among which the pig price in Chongqing rose slightly by .5 yuan per catty, and the mainstream price was 6.1-6.5 yuan/catty. Sichuan rose .1 yuan, 6.3-6.5 yuan/kg.
At the same time, there was a decline in three provinces, with Shandong falling by .1 yuan, 6.2-6.5 yuan; Jilin fell by .1 yuan, 5.8-6. yuan/kg; Liaoning fell by .1 yuan, 6.-6.1 yuan/kg, and all other provinces stayed put.
from the analysis of the market situation, the pig price has not responded well under the stimulation of heavy profits, and the market situation in the first half of the year is worrying because of the high production capacity, light consumption, poor market sentiment and other factors.
4, the trend of egg price is tangled, and the rise is weak
When it comes to the egg market, everyone must feel that the price of eggs has dropped first and then increased after the Spring Festival, but in recent days, the increase has obviously lacked motivation. In terms of price, the mainstream price of egg wholesale in most areas is around 3.7-3.9 yuan, and 4 yuan seems to be the ceiling per catty.
On March 2nd, the egg market improved slightly, and only a few areas saw a slow recovery in egg prices.
It is understood that the price of eggs on Dayang Road in Beijing dropped by .2 yuan per catty and 3.81 yuan per catty; The mainstream price of the whole Beijing area rose by .4 yuan and 3.82 yuan/kg; Dongguan, Guangdong rose 3 points, 3.94 yuan/kg; Harbin rose by 1 hair, 3.9 yuan/kg; Liaoning Chaoyang rose 5 points, 3.65 yuan/kg; Liaoyang rose 14 cents, 3.87 yuan/kg; Chengde, Hebei rose 4 points, 3.71 yuan/kg; Changde, Hunan rose 2 points to 4.11 yuan/kg.
Although the price of eggs rebounded in some areas today, judging from today's futures market, it oscillated downward after opening higher, and the closing price was 4,29 yuan /5KG, a decrease of .42%.
At the same time, it is difficult for the egg price to break through 4 yuan when the consumption off-season from March to May is superimposed, and it is likely that it will fluctuate around 3.5 yuan, and the limit price may be near 3 yuan.
Dear friends, the prices of corn, wheat and other grains have risen sharply recently, while the prices of live pigs and eggs have faltered. What do you think? Which of the four will go up? (Text/Sannong Guangxun)