Development and Trends
Studying the development trends of international trade is an important prerequisite for China to formulate and improve its export development strategy.
Changes in the structure of international trade
(1) The vigorous rise of international trade in services
After entering the 1980s, trade in services is growing at a higher rate than trade in goods. The volume of international trade in services increased from US$405 billion in 1982 to US$960 billion in 1987, and then to US$1.02 trillion in 1992, an increase of 1.5 times in 10 years. During the same period, the volume of world merchandise trade only doubled. In 1993, the world merchandise trade volume decreased by 2% compared with the previous year, while the international service trade volume increased by 3%. In the composition of international service trade, the proportion of transportation and tourism service trade has declined relatively, while the proportion of service trade such as communications, insurance, advertising, technology, leasing, and management has been increasing, especially the added value of high-tech products. The number of goods continues to increase, and its products are becoming more and more service-intensive.
The economies of developed countries are becoming more and more "service-oriented". In international service trade, developed countries account for about 3/4 of the share. The United States is the world's largest exporter of services trade and has obvious advantages in emerging service projects such as telecommunications, data processing, banking, and insurance. For the sake of their own economic security, many countries in the world have implemented protectionist policies towards service trade and generally built trade barriers, posing a strong threat to the expansion of US trade in services. Therefore, a few years ago, the United States proposed to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade Request to resolve the issue of trade in services. After years of negotiations, the Uruguay Round finally reached a multilateral framework agreement on trade in services, which stipulates the general obligations and disciplines undertaken by the contracting parties, including most-favored-nation treatment, transparency, national treatment, progressive participation of developing countries, market access, dispute resolution, etc. . The formulation of the multilateral framework for trade in services is a major breakthrough for the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade in promoting the liberalization and development of international trade. It will enable the contracting parties to protect the service market and multilateral negotiations, strengthen personnel exchanges and information circulation, especially knowledge The gradual liberalization of trade in property rights, technology transfer, data processing, consulting, advertising and other service industries will help accelerate the development of international trade.
(2) Environmentally friendly products are popular all over the world
In 1992, the United Nations "Conference on Environment and Development" greatly enhanced the environmental awareness of people around the world, and green foods that are harmless to human health, The demand for green products such as green refrigerators, green air conditioners, green computers, and green cars has increased significantly, which has promoted changes in industrial sectors such as electrical appliances, energy, construction, and petrochemicals. Pollution prevention and control, energy conservation, and information services will form an emerging huge industry. industry. Environmentally friendly technologies in North America and Western Europe have accounted for 60% of the international market. According to a survey in seven Western industrial countries, the number of people boycotting non-environmentally friendly products accounts for about 79% of the total. This shows that green products have dominated the international market, and The market prospects are very broad.
In order to solve environmental problems related to trade, on December 15, 1993, at the Uruguay Round Trade Negotiating Committee meeting, a resolution "On Trade and Environment" was adopted and it was decided to draft a trade work program with the environment and develop rules on the enhanced interaction between trade and environmental measures, oversee trade measures used for environmental purposes, and trade-related environmental measures. With the increasing awareness of environmental protection in the international community, environmental protection projects have received much attention in international aid and investment. At present, many countries have not only successively introduced strict environmental protection regulations, but also in import and export trade, whether they are industrial countries or "emerging industrial countries", most of them have formulated the principle of "environmental protection products first". President Clinton of the United States clearly stated: Environmental protection products must be given priority. Formulate export preferential policies; the European Union has formulated a "green import" policy; ASEAN countries have decided to impose low tariffs on environmentally friendly products; this will have a profound impact on the development of international trade.
Changes in international trade methods
(1) Paperless trade gradually becomes popular
Paperless trade (EDI for short) uses electronic data exchange to replace traditional paper Conduct trade activities using face documents, and transmit and process standard economic information between the computers of business partners through communication networks to achieve the purpose of transactions between buyers and sellers.
The use of EDI in international trade activities can greatly reduce or even eliminate various paper documents and documents in the traditional trade process, avoid repeated data entry, and simplify work procedures. This can not only speed up the feedback of information, but also obtain a large number of information in a timely manner. business information, reduce errors, lower costs, improve efficiency, facilitate management, and provide more favorable trade opportunities and conditions for enterprises in the fierce market competition.
Paperless trade began in the 1960s, but it was gradually expanded to the field of international trade in the 1980s. Since 1992, the United States has adopted EDI for import and export trade declarations; Japan has developed a "Strategic Information System (SIS)" based on the application of EDI; South Korea has also established an EDI service system - Korea Trade Network (KT-NET); China The government has established the "China Coordinating Committee for Promotion of EDI Application" to promote the application of EDI; the United Nations has also proposed a trade services promotion project for the application of EDI - ET. In 2000, the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law (UNCITRAL) is formulating international laws on the application of EDI. , creating conditions for the popular use of EDI on a global scale.
(2) The rapid development of managed trade
Managed trade specifically refers to the administrative management of foreign trade activities carried out by a country's government based on the country's macroeconomic interests and domestic and foreign policy needs. and intervention. For international economic organizations, it is the coordinated management of the international economy.
After entering the 1990s, due to the fierce competition in the international market, the struggle of industrial countries to compete for market share became more and more acute, which had a strong impact on the capitalist world economic system. The relevant countries out of the correlation of economic interests , all realize that it is necessary to strengthen international economic coordination. Developing countries have effectively promoted economic development through the adjustment of industrial and economic structures and the implementation of reform and opening up policies. Cars, home appliances, clothing, electronics and other commodities from newly industrialized countries and regions such as South Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan have already It began to compete with developed countries for international market share. In order to protect the development of traditional industries, developed countries have adopted a lot of management and trade measures; as the trend of regional economic grouping in the world further strengthens, each regional economic group has set up in the protected area market in order to protect the development of traditional industries. While gradually dismantling various obstacles that hinder the free flow of goods and production factors, the exclusion of foreign countries has led to the rise of new trade protectionism. Unfair monopolistic competition and contradictions among various groups have intensified. Non-member countries also feel that their trade space is in doubt. Continuously shrinking, in order to expand exports and protect the market, it is necessary to strengthen unilateral management of trade and coordinated trade management with groups; with the new development of production internationalization, multinational companies need to adopt free trade and eliminate the obstacles to foreign economic expansion. All restrictions also require state intervention in foreign trade to improve competitiveness and protect certain industries from foreign monopoly organizations. Therefore, managed trade will develop rapidly in the 1990s.