The population data of 31 provinces are released, and the permanent population of 16 places has negative growth.

The population data of 31 provinces are released, and the permanent population of 16 places has negative growth. In 2021, there are 16 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions with permanent population. The population has decreased to varying degrees, and most of these provinces are concentrated in the north. Population data have been released for 31 provinces, and the resident population in 16 places has experienced negative growth. Population data for 31 provinces are released, and 16 places have negative growth in resident population 1

After the National Bureau of Statistics released the 2021 population data, various regions also successively released local data.

Among the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, 16 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions experienced a decrease in resident population, and 15 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions experienced an increase in resident population. Among them, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Hubei ranked among the top three in terms of increase.

Data show that among the 31 provinces, 15 provinces will achieve growth in resident population in 2021. Among them, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hubei, Jiangsu and Fujian rank in the top five.

The resident population of 16 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions has decreased

Judging from the current data released by various provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, 16 provinces and municipalities *** in 2021 The permanent population of the autonomous regions has decreased to varying degrees, and most of these provinces are concentrated in the north, including Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Hebei, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Beijing, Tianjin, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Jiangxi, etc.

Among them, 10 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions have experienced a reduction of more than 100,000 people. Henan, Heilongjiang and Yunnan ranked the top three in terms of decreases, with decreases of 580,000, 460,000 and 320,000 respectively. Liaoning, Jilin, and Hunan also saw reductions of more than 200,000. Generally speaking, provinces with declining populations mainly come from Northeast, North, Northwest and Central China.

Judging from the changes in permanent population in 2021, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hubei, Jiangsu and Fujian rank among the top five in terms of population growth. The per capita GDP of these provinces in 2021 is the highest in the country except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. Among the 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, they ranked 5th, 7th, 9th, 3rd, and 4th respectively.

Except for Hubei, the other four provinces are all located on the southeast coast, with a total net increase in population of 1.861 million people. Among them, Zhejiang increased by 720,000 people, ranking first in the country in population increase. Specifically, Zhejiang will have 449,000 births in 2021, 384,000 deaths, and a natural increase of only 65,000 people. Therefore, Zhejiang’s population growth mainly benefits from population inflow.

The increase in Guangdong was 600,000, and the increase in Jiangsu and Fujian was 281,000 and 260,000 respectively.

According to Red Star News, from the population statistics of various provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, it was found that many provinces have experienced a population "siphon" phenomenon of "strong provincial capitals" or "strong cities".

Taking Shaanxi as an example, all 10 cities in Shaanxi have released the 2021 National Economic and Social Development Statistical Bulletin. In addition to the increase in the resident population in Xi'an, the remaining 9 cities in Tongchuan, Baoji, Yan'an, and Hanzhong have The permanent population of all prefectures and cities decreased.

In Hubei, compared with the data in 2020, the number of permanent residents in Yichang, Huanggang, Jingmen, Jingzhou, Shiyan, Ezhou and other cities except the provincial capital Wuhan has declined in 2021. In Jiangxi, the permanent population of Nanchang, the provincial capital, increased by 180,000, while the number of permanent residents in Shangrao, Yichun, Jiujiang, Ji'an, Fuzhou and other cities all declined.

However, in some economically developed provinces such as Guangdong, the increase in permanent population among cities is relatively even. Taking Guangdong Province as an example, the permanent population of Foshan, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Shenzhen, Zhongshan, Jiangmen, Huizhou, Zhuhai, Zhaoqing, etc. will all increase in 2021.

The natural population growth rate of 11 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions is negative

In addition, 27 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions have currently released data related to the birth population in 2021. From the perspective of the natural population growth rate , 11 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions have negative natural population growth rates, including Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Hunan, Hubei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Hebei and Shanxi.

The natural growth rate of population refers to the ratio of the natural increase in population (number of births minus the number of deaths) in a certain period (usually one year) to the average number of people in that period (or mid-term number), expressed in thousandths rate expressed. Natural population growth rate = population birth rate – population death rate.

The natural growth rate of many provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions turned negative for the first time in many years. Among them, the natural population growth rate of Jiangsu is - 1.12‰. The number of births in Jiangsu in 2021 is approximately 479,800. According to the data sorting by China Business News combined with the "Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook 2021", this is also the first time since 1978 (the yearbook publishes data since 1978) that it has fallen below the 500,000 mark. In Hunan, the number of births in 2021 fell below 500,000 for the first time in the past 60 years.

In terms of birth population, Guangdong, China’s most populous province, occupies the first position.

Data show that Guangdong’s permanent population at the end of 2021 was 126.84 million, an increase of 600,000 from the end of the previous year. The number of births in the year was 1.1831 million, with a birth rate of 9.35‰; the number of deaths was 611,200, with a mortality rate of 4.83‰; the natural increase population was 571,900, with a natural growth rate of 4.52‰.

Guangdong is also the only region with more than one million births throughout the year. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, there will be 10.62 million births in the country in 2021. Based on this calculation, Guangdong’s birth population accounts for 11% of the country’s birth population.

After Guangdong, the other two provinces with a population of 100 million, Henan and Shandong, have a birth population of 793,000 and 750,400 respectively in 2021, ranking second and third respectively. Among them, Henan's birth population in 2021 hit a new low since 1978. After falling below the 1 million mark for the first time in 2020, it fell below the 800,000 mark again in 2021.

Including Henan, the number of births in many provinces in 2021 hit a new low in decades. Analysis by the Jiangxi Provincial Bureau of Statistics pointed out that the province's birth population will decline rapidly in 2021. The province's birth population will decrease by 50,400 in 2021 compared with 2020. The birth population will be below 400,000 for the first time since the 1950s. The decline in the number of births is mainly affected by factors such as the postponement of the age of marriage and childbirth and the weakening of the effect of the "two-child policy."

Previously, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the national population was 1,412.6 million at the end of 2021, an increase of only 480,000 from the end of the previous year. The natural growth rate of the national population in 2021 is 0.34‰, a decrease of 1.11 thousandth points compared with 2020. The National Bureau of Statistics analyzed that the continued slowdown in population growth is due to the continued decrease in the number of births, which is mainly affected by two factors. First, the number of women of childbearing age continues to decrease, and second, the fertility level continues to decline. The population data of 31 provinces are released, and the permanent population of 16 places has negative growth2

With the disclosure of Jilin’s 2021 population data, the 2021 population data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities across the country have been released. Although the details of population data released by various provinces vary, some characteristics and changes of the times can also be glimpsed.

Drawing by Li Jinlei of China News Finance

Guangdong has two firsts: the most populous and the most productive

Guangdong is both the first in China The most populous province is also the province with the largest number of births. It is a well-deserved double champion in terms of population.

Data show that Guangdong had a permanent population of 126.84 million at the end of 2021 and a birth population of 1.1831 million throughout the year, both ranking first in the country.

Looking at the whole country, Guangdong is the only province with a birth population of more than 1 million.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, there will be 10.62 million births in the country in 2021. Based on this calculation, Guangdong alone contributed 11.0 million births.

As the largest economic province, Guangdong has outstanding population performance, and the inflow of population has contributed a lot. Data from the seventh national census show that Guangdong’s population has increased by more than 21.7 million in the past 10 years, the largest increase in the country.

Feng Wenmeng, director and researcher of the Institute of Public Management and Human Resources of the Development Research Center of the State Council, analyzed Sino-Singapore Finance and Economics that Guangdong has been a major population inflow since the reform and opening up, with a large number of young people flowing. The population flows to Guangdong. From the age structure, Guangdong is a relatively young province. The young people who move to Guangdong to work have gradually reached the age of marriage and childbirth, so they have a relatively large number of children.

The decline in the birth population has become a general trend

Judging from the provinces that released birth population data, the birth population has become a general trend. The number of births in many provinces in 2021 Population hit a new low.

Shandong, once known as the “province most daring to give birth to children,” has fewer births. After the full liberalization of the two-child policy, Shandong's birth population soared to 1.7706 million in 2016. It continued to remain at a high of 1.7498 million in 2017, but has been declining since then. It was 1.3295 million in 2018, 1.1839 million in 2019, and will decrease in 2021. to 750,400 people.

With the decline in the number of births, Shandong’s population is also facing an important turning point. Its natural population growth rate in 2021 is only 0.02‰, which is only one step away from natural negative population growth.

As the third most populous province, the number of births in Henan fell below 800,000. Data show that Henan had 793,000 births throughout the year, with a birth rate of 8.00‰; 730,000 deaths, and a mortality rate of 7.36‰; and a natural increase of 63,000 people, with a natural growth rate of 0.64‰.

The province’s birth population in Jiangxi in 2021 was 377,000, a decrease of 50,400 from 427,400 in 2020. The birth population fell below 400,000 for the first time since the 1950s. Analysis by the Jiangxi Bureau of Statistics believes that the decline in the number of births is mainly due to factors such as the postponement of the age of marriage and childbirth, the weakening of the effect of the "two-child policy", and the fact that the "three-child policy" has not yet appeared.

Data map: Parents take their children to play in the waves at the beach. Photo by You Jianxing

At least 11 provinces have negative natural population growth

Let’s look at the natural population growth rate. The natural population growth rate refers to the natural increase in population within a certain period of time (usually one year) ( The ratio of the number of births minus the number of deaths) to the average number of people during the period (or mid-term number), expressed in thousandths. Natural population growth rate = population birth rate – population death rate.

Among the provinces that announced the natural population growth rate, Tibet had the highest rate, reaching 8.70‰. Next is Ningxia, reaching 5.53‰, and third is Guizhou, reaching 4.98‰.

Among them, 11 provinces have negative natural population growth rates, including Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Jilin, Chongqing, Inner Mongolia, Hunan, Hubei, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Hebei, and Shanxi.

The natural growth rate of many provinces turned negative for the first time in many years. Among them, Jiangsu’s natural population growth rate is -1.12‰. This is the first time that Jiangsu’s annual natural population growth rate has turned negative since the founding of New China.

This is mainly due to a sharp decrease in the number of births, resulting in a rapid decline in natural population growth. The number of births to the permanent population in Jiangsu began to decline slightly from 2016 to 2019, but it still remained above 700,000 every year. In 2020 and 2021, the number of births fell below 600,000 and 500,000 consecutively.

According to analysis by the Jiangsu Provincial Bureau of Statistics, the decline in the number of births in the permanent population is mainly due to three factors: First, the number of women of childbearing age has dropped significantly. Second, the age at which women get married for the first time continues to be postponed. Third, women’s educational level has increased significantly.

As a woman's education level increases, it will lead to fewer or no births. In addition, the COVID-19 epidemic has also had a certain impact on the marriage and childbearing arrangements of some young people.

The population of the three northeastern provinces continues to have "negative growth"

The natural population growth rate of the three northeastern provinces is the lowest among the three provinces. Among them, the natural population growth rate of Heilongjiang is - The natural population growth rate of Liaoning is -4.18‰, and the natural population growth rate of Jilin is -3.38‰.

Among them, the annual birth population in Liaoning was 200,000, and the birth population in Jilin was 112,200.

Overall, the population loss in the Northeast is very serious. Data from the seventh national census show that the population in Northeast China has decreased by 11.01 million people in 10 years. Among them, Heilongjiang has lost more than 6.46 million people, making it the province with the largest population loss.

Feng Wenmeng analyzed that the birth rate in the three northeastern provinces is relatively low because of the small young population. This is mainly due to the serious population outflow in the northeastern region in recent years, local climate factors, economic growth and employment in recent years, etc. The problem has led to the exodus of a large number of young people, and the decline in the number of people in the marriage and childbearing years will naturally lead to a decrease in births.

The mortality rate is high because the outflow of young people has also led to a relatively higher degree of aging in the Northeast. The relatively large number of elderly people has also led to a relative increase in the number of deaths. Therefore, the birth rate decreases and the death rate increases, resulting in a relatively low natural population growth rate. The population data of 31 provinces are released, and the resident population of 16 places has a negative growth of 3

Recently, as 31 provinces across the country have successively released their 2021 population data, Guangdong, the most populous province, has once again attracted the attention of the entire network.

In 2021, Guangdong’s total permanent population reached 126.84 million, ranking first in the country for 15 consecutive years; its birth population was 1.1831 million, making it the country’s largest birth province for four consecutive years and the only province with the largest number of births. Provinces with a population of more than one million people.

Guangdong’s population data is still impressive, but behind it lies a changing pattern. The population attractiveness of the Pearl River Delta is not as good as before. The population increase in 2021 is only 370,000, which is far lower than the average annual increase from 2010 to 2020 (2.18 million). The population growth of the former "top cities" Guangzhou and Shenzhen has also declined sharply, and Foshan has become the new "traffic king".

What does this change mean? Is this the end of the demographic dividend period for Guangzhou and Shenzhen?

Population growth in the Pearl River Delta is slowing down

Judging from the total population data, the urban structure of Guangdong has not changed much. Guangzhou and Shenzhen are still the absolute "kings". The total population of the nine cities in the triangle accounts for more than 60% of the province's total population.

In 2021, the total populations of Guangzhou and Shenzhen are 18.8106 million and 17.6816 million respectively, which is almost the combined population of the other two cities with a trillion GDP - Dongguan and Foshan. It is Yunfu with the lowest population in the province. (2.3933 million) nearly 8 times. The nine Pearl River Delta cities including Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Foshan, Huizhou, Zhongshan, Zhuhai, Jiangmen and Zhaoqing have a total population of 78.61 million, accounting for approximately 62% of the total population of the province.

However, judging from the data on population increase, Guangdong has undergone great changes in 2021, and the population attractiveness of the nine cities in the Pearl River Delta is no longer as attractive as before. In 2021, the population of the nine cities in the Pearl River Delta will increase by 370,000, accounting for approximately 62% of the province's increase.

This set of data reveals two problems. One is that the population increase of 370,000 is far lower than the average annual increase in the Pearl River Delta from 2010 to 2020 (2.18 million); The increase only accounts for 62% of the province's total, while the increase from 2010 to 2020 is higher than the province's. In other words, in the last decade, Guangdong's population growth of 21.71 million was almost entirely contributed by cities in the Pearl River Delta. However, in 2021, the Pearl River Delta no longer leads the way, and other cities also contributed nearly 40% of the population growth.

The main factors are the industrial transformation of the Pearl River Delta and the reduction of the floating population caused by frequent epidemics.

Peng Peng, executive director of the Guangdong Provincial Institutional Reform Research Association, analyzed in an interview with the media that the industrial transformation of the Pearl River Delta, such as "machine substitution" and industrial digitalization and intelligence, have had a "crowding-out effect" on migrant workers. The service industry can undertake the transformation of the labor force, but "high living standards and constant epidemics" make the development of the service industry very difficult.

In addition, the population density of cities in the Pearl River Delta is generally high and the environmental carrying capacity is gradually becoming saturated. These are also important factors. In 2021, there are 8 cities in Guangdong with a population density of more than 1,000 people/square kilometer, 6 of which are located in the Pearl River Delta. The population density of Shenzhen, the smallest city, is as high as 8,852 people per square kilometer, ranking first in the country. When the carrying capacity gradually becomes saturated, the urban environment and public facilities such as housing, education, and medical care will face great pressure, and population growth will naturally slow down.

Such structural changes are also reflected within the Pearl River Delta.

Foshan’s population growth exceeds that of Guangzhou and Shenzhen

In 2021, the population growth pattern of the nine cities in the Pearl River Delta has changed significantly, and the population growth of the once "top-tier" Shenzhen and Guangzhou has declined sharply. , Foshan jumped to the top of the list with an increase of 93,800 people, becoming the new "traffic king".

From 2010 to 2020, the cities with the highest population growth in Guangdong were Shenzhen and Guangzhou, reaching 7.1361 million and 5.9758 million respectively, which is equivalent to an annual increase of 6.7 million people. But in 2021, the city with the highest population increase in Guangdong is Foshan, with an increase of 93,800 people compared with the end of 2020. Shenzhen and Guangzhou only increased by 47,800 and 70,300 respectively. Shenzhen's increase even ranked fifth in Guangdong, lower than Foshan, Guangzhou, Dongguan and Zhanjiang in the non-Pearl Region.

This is also the result of the superposition of multiple factors such as the frequent epidemics in Guangzhou and Shenzhen and industrial upgrading. Since the epidemic, the service and manufacturing industries in Guangzhou and Shenzhen have been greatly affected by the epidemic, which has had a great impact on many employees. At the same time, the high cost of living in first-tier cities also discourages many "workers".

In contrast, new first-tier cities such as Foshan and Dongguan still have a large population growth period due to their lower living costs, complete infrastructure, and higher levels of industrial development, especially Foshan. .

In terms of economic development, Foshan is one of the four trillion-dollar GDP cities in Guangdong. Last year’s economic growth rate was 8.3, ranking first among Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Foshan; in terms of industrial environment, robotics, electronic information, and new energy New industries are emerging; in terms of infrastructure, Foshan and Guangzhou are connected by rail transit; in terms of income level, Foshan's per capita disposable income is 61,700 yuan, ranking behind Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and on par with Dongguan; in terms of medical level, Foshan has the number of hospitals, The number of beds and health technicians are second only to Guangzhou and Shenzhen...

Of course, Foshan has become the new "traffic king", and the most important thing is to benefit from the accelerated pace of Guangfo in the same city. In recent years, the low housing prices in Nanhai District, Foshan City, the head area of ??Guangzhou-Foshan City, have attracted a number of foreigners. It has become a norm for Guangfo migratory birds who "work in Guangzhou and live in Nanhai" to settle in Nanhai. In 2021, the increase in the permanent population of Nanhai District will reach 41,400, accounting for 44% of the city's increase.

Is this population change normal? What impact will it have on Guangzhou and Shenzhen?

Guangzhou and Shenzhen’s demographic dividend turns to talent dividend

Such pattern changes actually reflect the characteristics of urban population changes at different stages, and do not mean that the demographic dividend of Guangzhou and Shenzhen ends here. .

Niu Fengrui, a researcher at the Urban Development and Environmental Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed in an interview with the media that urban population changes have different characteristics at different stages. Shenzhen and Guangzhou grew rapidly in the previous decade, but this growth rate cannot continue forever. When it reaches a certain stage, it will enter a relatively gentle stage. At present, the urban population size of first-tier cities, especially the urban population size, is very large and has entered a period of stable development.

Taking Shenzhen as an example, the "Shenzhen Land and Space Master Plan (2020-2035)" proposes that by 2035, Shenzhen's permanent population may be controlled at 19 million. This means that in the next 10 years, Shenzhen's population growth space will be less than 1.5 million. Against this background, Shenzhen raised the threshold for settling in last year, adjusted the bottom line requirements for approved academic qualifications from full-time college to full-time undergraduate, and also tightened the age for talents to settle.

Although Guangzhou has not tightened its settlement policy, it has also "discounted" favorable policies for attracting talents. In August last year, Huangpu District of Guangzhou issued the "Notice on Cancellation of the Housing Policy for Talents", becoming the first district in Guangzhou to officially issue a document canceling the housing purchase policy for talents. Half a month later, Nansha District also issued a notice tightening the housing purchase policy for talents and requiring non-local household registration to provide proof of one-year personal tax or social security payment.

However, judging from the data of registered permanent residents, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are still very attractive to talents. Taking Guangzhou as an example, Guangzhou's registered population will increase by 264,200 in 2021, which is more than Dongguan (147,300) and Foshan (103,600) combined; among them, the registered immigrant population is as high as 241,600, maintaining rapid growth in recent years. These populations are all types of population and high-quality talents needed for urban construction and development.

Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about the slowdown in the growth of the permanent population in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. This is an inevitable trend that urban population changes will face at different stages. For Guangzhou and Shenzhen, how to provide basic public services such as housing, education, and medical care for 20 million people is a more important matter.