After commercial vehicles are fully liberalized to foreign investment, can the moat of independent brands be impregnable? What should we do in the face of the second "Tesla"?
Article/"Automobile Man" Zhang Heng
Starting from July 23, 2020, China's commercial vehicle stocks will be fully liberalized to foreign investment. Is the moat of Chinese brands strong? In the new track of fuel cells, will foreign investment take the lead?
Unlike passenger cars, commercial vehicles are now dominated by independent brands, with a share of 95%. From 2018 to 2019, China's commercial vehicle sales have repeatedly reached new highs, and even the COVID-19 epidemic has not been able to stop this trend. Some institutions predict that driven by the combined efforts of controlling overcrowding, new infrastructure projects, and the elimination of National III vehicles, heavy truck sales will exceed 1.4 million units in 2020, not only setting a new record high, but also accounting for six percent of the total global heavy truck sales. become.
"Autobot" believes that foreign investment entering China at this time will be difficult to catch up with the bull market window cycle. Although some organizations believe that heavy trucks are expected to continue to prosper in 2021, considering that this round of super vehicle replacement cycle started in September 2016, by the second half of 2021 or 2022, the "super vehicle replacement cycle" will come to an end.
Commercial vehicles, especially medium and heavy trucks, have strong regional characteristics, but there are also companies that have done well in internationalization: Daimler ranks first in the heavy truck market share in Europe and the United States, MAN and Volvo It has also performed well on the road to globalization. But in the Chinese market, why is it the situation it is today?
Price Barrier
The average price of heavy-duty trucks in China is less than 300,000 yuan, and the price of mainstream international brand heavy-duty trucks is more than 600,000 yuan. The price system of my country's domestic heavy-duty trucks is the result of competition between independent brands. It is a set of its own and has little to do with the price anchoring of international brand products.
Compared with developed markets, with the evolution of China's road transportation demand and the increasing configuration requirements of young drivers, the demand for high-end heavy trucks is on the rise, but price is still the biggest factor limiting the sales of foreign brands.
After the implementation of China VI emission standards, my country’s emission standards are in line with those of Europe and the United States. The National VI emission standards, especially the National VI b standards, are more stringent than the current emission standards in the United States and Europe. Direct import of overseas heavy trucks for domestic sales requires additional technical improvements and calibrations, which will significantly increase costs.
Some organizations believe that in the context of the liberalization of joint venture shareholding ratios and the implementation of National VI emission standards, for foreign investors, operating overseas brands in China through sole proprietorships or joint ventures with higher shareholding ratios can make full use of my country's cost-effective industrial supporting equipment is a more reasonable choice to reduce manufacturing costs, improve cost performance, and accelerate the expansion of the high-end heavy truck market.
Chinese heavy truck companies have also launched a number of high-end products in recent years, which are characterized by large displacement, strong power, automatic transmission, lightweight, air suspension, and comfortable cab configuration... Representative models include Jiefang J7 , SINOTRUK Shande Truck, Dongfeng Tianlong flagship, etc. Domestic high-end heavy trucks have penetrated into express delivery, express transportation, less-than-truckload logistics and other scenarios, but the penetration rate is average. For example, the Shandeka C7H, which was launched in 2013, sold only 12,000 units in 2019, and is expected to exceed 30,000 units in 2020. Jiefang J7 officially entered the mass sales year in 2019 and is expected to hit the 10,000-unit target in 2020. However, compared with the total volume of 1.25 million to 1.4 million units, its proportion is still very low.
In terms of price, the manufacturer's guide prices of Sinotruk Shande Truck, FAW Jiefang J7 and Dongfeng Tianlong flagship KX are 550,000 yuan, 550,000 yuan and 530,000 yuan respectively; while Mercedes-Benz The manufacturer's guide prices of Actros, MAN TGX, Volvo FM and Scania P series are 850,000 yuan, 670,000 yuan, 800,000 yuan and 900,000 yuan respectively, with huge price differences.
International brands entering the Chinese commercial vehicle market will face a protracted battle. When talking about the development of the commercial vehicle industry, there is an unavoidable topic, which is fuel cell hydrogen energy.
Hydrogen energy battlefield
Compared with diesel heavy trucks and electric heavy trucks, fuel cell heavy trucks have the advantages of zero emissions, heavy loads, and long-distance endurance.
Gan Yong, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, predicts that by 2050, more than 50 heavy-duty trucks will be powered by hydrogen fuel cells. Some people in the industry have shouted: "In hydrogen energy, those with heavy trucks will win the world."
According to the "White Paper on China's Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell Industry", hydrogen energy will become an important part of China's energy system. In 2050, energy Accounting for about 10% of the system, hydrogen demand reaches 60 million tons, there are more than 10,000 hydrogenation stations, FCV production reaches 5.2 million vehicles per year, and the development prospects are broad.
Bloomberg predicts that in 30 years, the cost of hydrogen can be reduced to compete with natural gas. According to data from the U.S. Department of Energy DOE, it is expected that in 2050, the price of hydrogen will drop to US$5/kg, and fuel cell heavy trucks can achieve TCO (cost of ownership) parity when sales reach 100,000 units. Considering that my country's heavy truck market size is four times that of the United States, it is expected that my country will achieve ownership cost parity between fuel cell heavy trucks and fuel heavy trucks within 10 years.
In 2017, China National Heavy Duty Truck released the first prototype of a fuel cell port heavy truck. Toyota plans to produce 10 hydrogen fuel heavy trucks in the fourth quarter of 2020. The mass production time of Hyundai and Daimler’s hydrogen energy heavy trucks The schedule has been postponed to 2023.
Recently, Toyota Motor announced that it has joined forces with five companies including Yishuatong, China FAW, Dongfeng Motor, BAIC, and GAC to establish "United Fuel Cell System R&D (Beijing) Co., Ltd." to target commercial vehicle fuel cells. Carry out research and development work systematically.
As of the end of 2019, my country has promoted more than 6,500 fuel cell vehicles and built more than 50 hydrogenation stations. The subsidy policy is adjusted to select demonstration cities or regions and carry out demonstrations focusing on technological research and industrial application of key components. During the 4-year demonstration period, rewards will be given to the demonstration cities in the form of "rewards instead of subsidies".
One of the reasons why the industry attaches so much importance to fuel cell commercial vehicles is the demonstration effect of the capital market. Nikola Motors, an American start-up truck company, was listed on Nasdaq not long ago. At present, the company's market value has reached 13.2 billion US dollars without delivering cars, and it is known as the second "Tesla" . Because it and Tesla respectively took the first and last names of the famous scientist "Nikola Tesla" in the last century.
Nikola Motors was founded in 2015. Its business is the development and construction of pure electric trucks, hydrogen energy heavy trucks, L4 autonomous driving, grid storage and hydrogen refueling stations. The company offers both electric and fuel cell heavy-duty trucks to meet the needs of the short-haul and long-haul markets. They are cooperating with Iveco to produce electric heavy-duty trucks, which are expected to be mass-produced in the first quarter of 2021, while fuel-cell heavy-duty trucks are expected to be produced in small batches in the first quarter of 2023.
Currently, beer giant Anheuser-Busch InBev and global chain Walmart have reached logistics cooperation with them, with over 14,000 orders worth over 10 billion US dollars. The innovation of Nikola's business model is to expand the market through bundled leasing services.
For international commercial vehicle giants, it is a wise move to enter the Chinese market as early as possible to lay out the fuel cell industry. In the past few years, the development of pure electric vehicles in China is a good reference. China's heavy-duty truck market accounts for more than half of the world's total, and it has advantages in terms of scale and cost reduction.
Everyone also knows that what supports Tesla’s soaring stock price is the success of their strategic layout in China. Now, another Nikola Motors has emerged in the field of commercial vehicles. The difference is that when Tesla became widely known, it already had its popular product Model S, while Nikola Motors' products were still on "paper". This means that it is not too late for domestic and international commercial vehicle companies. (Text/"Autobot" Zhang Heng, some pictures are from the Internet) Copyright Statement This article is an exclusive original manuscript of "Autobot Media", and the copyright belongs to "Autobot Media".
This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.