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1. A cornerstone of the cold war system on the Korean Peninsula: Armistice Agreement
Today, when the whole world has entered the post-cold war era, the shadow of the cold war on the Korean Peninsula is lingering. The Armistice Agreement signed by the warring sides at the end of the Korean-Xian War in 1953 is a cornerstone of the cold war system on the peninsula, which maintains the military confrontation between the half-island without war and without peace. Although the agreement is still valid, the supervision and management mechanism of military confrontation on the peninsula established according to the agreement has long been in a non-operational state. This situation caused the Korean peninsula armistice structure to shake.
On July 27th, 1953, the two warring parties in the Korean War, the United Nations Army led by the United States on the one hand and the Korean People's Army and Chinese people's Volunteer Army on the other, signed the Armistice Agreement in Panmunjom, a small village in the "38th parallel". The purpose of the agreement is to end the war that has brought great pain and casualties to both sides, and to ensure the complete cessation of hostilities and all armed actions before the final settlement of the Korean Peninsula issue.
Because the Armistice Agreement maintains a military confrontation relationship without war or peace, in order to achieve real peace, both sides proposed that within three months after the conclusion of the Armistice Agreement, each side send representatives to hold a high-level political meeting to discuss the withdrawal of foreign troops and the peaceful settlement of the peninsula issue. Although this proposal was written into the Armistice Agreement as the fourth clause, it failed to solve the Korean Peninsula issue peacefully under the international background of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union at that time. In fact, the signing of the Armistice Agreement has further stabilized the cold war system on the peninsula, and the agreement itself has become a cornerstone of the cold war system on the half-island.
First of all, the Armistice Agreement is an international agreement, which makes the Korean issue more international and complicated than before the war broke out. If we want to change the military confrontation situation stipulated in the Armistice Agreement, it must involve the signatories of the Agreement. The signatories to the Armistice Agreement actually represent the United States and the western capitalist world under its leadership, and eastern bloc dominated by North Korea, China and the Soviet Union. In this context, the settlement of the North Korean issue is closely related to the relations between international powers.
Secondly, the countries concerned in the Armistice Agreement built two opposing military alliance groups around the Korean Peninsula. One side is the South Triangle Alliance of the United States, Japan and South Korea, and the other side is the North Triangle Alliance of the Soviet Union and North Korea. The United States is the core of the southern triangle alliance, and the United States-Japan alliance and the United States-South Korea alliance are two axes. At the beginning of the Korean War, the United States focused on building its allies in East Asia. The San Francisco Peace Treaty and the Japan-US Security Treaty signed by the United States and Japan during the Korean War gave the United States the right to station troops in Japan for a long time, and made Japan the Far East base for the United States to carry out the Korean War. After the signing of the Armistice Agreement, the United States further signed the Japan-US Defense Assistance Agreement with Japan, and finally established Japan's position as an ally of the United States in the Far East. The Korea-US Mutual Defense Treaty concluded between the United States and South Korea has enabled the United States to station its land, sea and air forces in and around South Korea. In this way, the southern military triangle alliance with South Korea as the front line was established. On the other hand, North Korea also signed the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the DPRK and the Soviet Union and the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the DPRK and China with the Soviet Union and China in 1961. These two alliance treaties clearly stipulate that if North Korea is threatened, the Soviet Union and China will do their best to help it. This is the Northern Triangle Alliance.
The Armistice Agreement and a series of subsequent bilateral military alliance treaties institutionalized the involvement of international forces in the security affairs of the peninsula. Thus, a stable cold war system on the Korean Peninsula was established. Among them, the Armistice Agreement is an international norm to maintain the military confrontation between the two sides and a cornerstone of the cold war system on the Korean Peninsula for a long time.
However, since the 199s, the armistice structure on the peninsula, based on the Armistice Agreement, has been shaken by the end of the global cold war and the changes in the international power structure in Northeast Asia. The armistice supervision and management mechanisms established according to the armistice agreement, namely, the Military Armistice Commission and the Neutral Nations Supervision Commission, are basically in a state of suspension due to the withdrawal of delegations from North Korea and related parties. The result is the lack of communication and consultation mechanism between the two sides on the Korean peninsula, which makes the armistice structure on the peninsula in a dangerous state.
Second, the key to North Korea's national security after the Cold War: The sudden change of the United States in Eastern Europe and the disintegration of the Soviet Union declared the disintegration of eastern bloc and the end of the global cold war pattern. The cold war system on the Korean peninsula is seriously unbalanced under this huge impact, but it continues to remain. For North Korea, the continued existence of the unbalanced cold war system on the peninsula has caused a sharp deterioration in its national security situation.
In the late 198s, the South Korean government was eager to close the distance with China and the Soviet Union and strive to take the initiative in the confrontation between the north and the south of the peninsula. At the same time, the capital and technology of Korean enterprises are undoubtedly attractive to the Soviet Union and China, which are embarking on the road of reform and opening up. The Soviet Union and China also hope to improve their relations with South Korea. Thus, after decades of confrontation, the two countries established diplomatic relations one after another.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia inherited the diplomatic relations of the Soviet Union. In 1992, Russian President Yeltsin visited Seoul and signed the Treaty on Basic Relations between Korea and Russia.
at the same time, China-ROK relations are also developing rapidly. Beginning in 1991, the two sides held talks at the foreign minister level, and finally issued a statement on the establishment of diplomatic relations in August 1992. The statement mentioned that the two countries will develop long-term good-neighborly and friendly cooperative relations in accordance with the principles of the UN Charter and mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other's internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence. (Note: Chosun Ilbo, August 25, 1992. )
The reform and opening-up of China and the Soviet Union and the eventual establishment of diplomatic relations with South Korea have undoubtedly greatly affected North Korea. In North Korea's view, the treaties of friendship and mutual assistance between the DPRK and the Soviet Union and the DPRK against the south exist in name only, and the triangular alliance between the Soviet Union and the DPRK is on the verge of disintegration. As a result, North Korea's relations with Russia and China became extremely cold, and bilateral high-level exchanges were almost cut off. Moreover, the Soviet Union and China, which pursue market economy, have also changed the traditional mode of economic exchange with the DPRK. Since 1992, Russia has adopted international price and currency settlement for North Korea's crude oil supply; Since 1993, China has also required North Korea to conduct trade according to currency. As a result, North Korea's foreign trade system is in a state of collapse, and energy and food are in short supply. In 199s, North Korea experienced unprecedented negative economic growth for 1 consecutive years, and its security crisis was aggravated by the economic crisis.
What is particularly unfavorable is that the Southern Triangle Alliance of the United States, Japan and South Korea has not made corresponding adjustments to the above changes. On the contrary, the United States has strengthened its military cooperation with Japan and South Korea and maintained its large-scale military presence in Japan and South Korea from its post-cold war East Asia and even global security strategy. Moreover, in order to enhance the security cooperation with Japan, in 1997, the United States and Japan launched a new "Guidelines for US-Japan Security Cooperation". The new guidelines expand the scope of security cooperation between the United States and Japan, and include the affairs around Japan, including the Korean Peninsula, in the scope of military cooperation between the two sides. At the same time, the United States continues to attach importance to its relations with South Korea and regards the security cooperation between the United States and South Korea as "the center of stability on the Korean Peninsula and Northeast Asia". (Note: U.S. Department of Defense, United States Security Strategy for the East Asia-Pacific Region, 1995, In this way, although the situation in Northeast Asia has been greatly eased by the end of the global cold war, the United States has continued to maintain 1, troops in East Asia. Among them, there are about 37, US troops stationed in South Korea and about 56, US troops stationed in Japan.
in the trilateral alliance among the United States, Japan and South Korea, the United States is the leader and the core. Japan and South Korea are highly dependent on the United States for national defense. On the issue of North Korea, the United States clearly regards North Korea as an important national defense content. The Clinton administration put forward the idea of winning two regional wars at the same time, one of which was aimed at the Korean peninsula.
First of all, the U.S. troops stationed in South Korea are frontline combat troops, and they are deployed on the south side of the "38th parallel" on the border between the DPRK and the ROK. The United States believes that "American troops need to be deployed in the front line to make North Korea clearly realize that the United States will automatically and immediately get involved in any conflict" (note: U.S. Department of Defense, United States Security Strategy for the East Asia-Pacific Region, 1995, "Sustaining Detection in Korea"), which is beneficial for the United States to effectively control the situation on the peninsula.
secondly, the Korean army is under the command of the American army. The U.S. military stationed in South Korea and the South Korean army formed the Korea-US Joint Army Command, and the commander of the U.S. military stationed in South Korea concurrently served as the commander of the Korea-US Joint Army, which made the South Korean army under the command of the U.S. military for a long time. Although the South Korean army regained its military control in peacetime at the end of 1994, its operational command always belonged to the US military.
furthermore, in the event of a war on the Korean peninsula, the U.S. military will mobilize a large number of reinforcements. The US troops stationed in South Korea and the South Korean military team were used to maintain the first phase of the war. Then, there will be a large number of US troops stationed in Japan, the US Pacific Fleet and even local US troops to quickly reinforce the peninsula. The reinforcements include land, sea, air force and marine corps, with a total of 69,. (Note: Ministry of National Defense, the Republic of Korea, Defense White Paper 2 (English version), P81.)
To sum up, with the end of the Cold War, the cold war system on the Korean Peninsula was seriously unbalanced. The northern triangle alliance is on the verge of dissolution, but the triangle alliance of the United States, Japan and South Korea continues to exist and strengthen, and North Korea's national security is extremely threatened. North Korea, once the frontier of international cold war, began to independently bear the pressure from the tripartite military alliance of the United States, Japan and South Korea. As the United States is the leader and core of the three parties, the United States has become a key factor affecting North Korea's national security.
third, the DPRK's idea of concluding a "peace agreement" with the United States
In the process of the deteriorating security situation in the DPRK, the DPRK put forward the idea of concluding a peace agreement with the United States. It was originally in 1974, when China and the Soviet Union split and Sino-US and Sino-Japanese relations eased. On March 2, 1974, the Third Session of the Fifth Supreme People's Assembly of Korea proposed to conclude a peace agreement with the United States.
However, the core goal of North Korea's national security strategy is to conclude a peace agreement with the United States in the mid-198s. At that time, China had resumed diplomatic relations with Japan and the United States respectively, and both the Soviet Union and China were carrying out reform and opening up. With the approaching of the Seoul Olympic Games in 1988, both China and Soviet Union intend to send delegations to participate, and the relationship between South Korea and Soviet Union shows signs of gradual reconciliation. In this context, it is urgent for North Korea to improve its relations with the United States and Japan in order to balance the imbalance in the cold war system on the peninsula. In view of the absolute leadership of the United States among the United States, Japan and South Korea, North Korea has placed the core of its security strategy on its relations with the United States. North Korea hopes to conclude a peace agreement between the DPRK and the United States, abolish the Armistice Agreement, break through the shackles of the remaining Cold War system on the peninsula on national security, integrate into the international community on the premise of institutional security, and achieve an international status equal to that of South Korea, so as to dominate the situation on the peninsula as much as possible.
On January 1, 1984, North Korea held a joint meeting of the Central People's Committee and the Standing Committee of the Supreme People's Assembly, at which it proposed to hold "tripartite talks" between the DPRK, the United States and South Korea to negotiate a peace agreement and other issues. The main contents of the proposal are: (1) To ease tensions and end the military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula, hold tripartite talks between the DPRK, the United States and South Korea; (2) In the tripartite talks, the DPRK and the United States discussed the conclusion of a peace agreement, and the DPRK and the ROK discussed the North-South non-aggression declaration. The peace agreement will include the withdrawal of US troops stationed in South Korea, and the declaration of non-aggression will include the non-use of force between the DPRK and the ROK and the disarmament of the two countries. (3) After the DPRK-US peace agreement and the declaration of non-aggression between the DPRK and the ROK were concluded respectively, a political consultation meeting was held between the DPRK and the ROK to discuss the creation of a "Korean federal state". (Note: North-South Dialogue, No.34, Seoul, South Korea: Bureau of North-South Dialogue of the National Unification Institute, released on April 3, 1984, p. 39. )
this proposal is different from the past in that it proposes to hold talks between the DPRK and the United States and between the DPRK and the ROK at the same time. Among them, the DPRK's consistent position of concluding a peace agreement between the DPRK and the United States has not changed. North Korea's flexibility lies in the simultaneous improvement of relations between the DPRK and the United States and between the DPRK and the ROK, that is, while improving relations with the United States and solving the problem of US troops stationed in South Korea, the North-South reconciliation issue should be negotiated. In fact, North Korea's proposal for a peace agreement with the United States has long been coldly received by the United States and resolutely opposed by South Korea. South Korea accused North Korea of trying to exclude it from the DPRK-US negotiations, which was intended to force the withdrawal of US troops and eventually subvert and red South Korea. South Korea calls for direct dialogue between North and South to conclude a peace agreement. North Korea's proposal for tripartite talks is a compromise against the opposition of the United States and South Korea, hoping to attract the United States and South Korea to the negotiating table.
North Korea's proposal for tripartite talks is still firmly opposed. The United States responded by pointing out that the peninsula problem must be solved between the North and the South, and China, the signatory of the Armistice Agreement, must be included in the international conference for the reunification of the peninsula. (Note: North-South Dialogue, No.34, Seoul, South Korea: Bureau of North-South Dialogue of the National Unification Institute, published on April 3, 1984, p. 59. Sun Jae-sik, president of South Korea's national reunification, also responded to the proposal of the DPRK tripartite talks. He issued a statement to the North, saying that the reunification of the peninsula is an internal issue of the Korean nation, and it is very important to restore mutual understanding and trust through dialogue between the North and the South, which requires direct dialogue between the North and the South. (Note: "Sun Zaizhi's Statement to the North by the President of the National Unification", South-North Dialogue, No.34, Seoul, Korea: South-North Dialogue Bureau of the National Unification Institute, issued on April 3, 1984, pp. 32-34. In a letter to the South Korean Prime Minister on March 7, 1984, the Prime Minister of North Korea's State Council refuted the position of the United States and South Korea: "Under this condition, the South Korean authorities and we can't solve such problems as the transformation of the armistice agreement into a peace agreement, the withdrawal of American troops, the conclusion of a declaration of non-aggression, the reduction of troops and the elimination of military confrontation;" It is not appropriate for the countries related to the Peninsula issue you proposed to participate in the talks, because no other countries are directly responsible for the Peninsula issue except the United States. " (Note: North-South Dialogue, No.34, Seoul, South Korea: The North-South Dialogue of the National Unification Institute.