1. Investment Theory

1. Pendulum Principle

That is, the price of any asset cannot rise or fall indefinitely. Just like a pendulum, it will eventually return to a state of equilibrium. The greater the deviation, the greater the magnitude of the reverse adjustment, and vice versa. Investors often apply this principle rigidly, hoping to seize the turning point of the trend in an obviously unilateral market trend and continue to operate against the market, thus causing huge losses. The price itself will not tell investors when the trend will change. They can only rely on the grasp of fundamentals, combined with trend analysis in technical analysis, and follow the trend. Only in this way can we correctly use this theory to grasp the medium and long-term operating trend.

2. The principle of water bed

It is to press down from one side, and the other side will protrude due to the squeeze of water. If the waterbed is compared to the entire financial market, then the water in the waterbed is the flow of funds, and the flow of funds between various financial markets shows the relationship between rising and falling. Asset prices are driven by funds. The amount of funds that increase or decrease in the financial market in the short term is negligible compared to the total stock. By analyzing and grasping the flow of funds between different sub-markets, we can judge the operational ideas of institutions, thereby Grasp the mid- to long-term market trends. Reference indicators for analysis usually include stock indexes, yield curves, CRB index (Reuters Commodity Research Bureau Index), etc.

3. Portfolio Investment Theory

Markowitz published an article entitled "Asset Portfolio Selection" in the "Financial Journal" in March 1952. The article advocated using the variance of return as risk. measurement, and proposed a model with the variance of portfolio returns as the objective function, laying the foundation for modern investment theory. Important conclusions:

(1) Diversified investments can effectively invest in risks;

(2) The lower the correlation between assets, the smaller the risk of the asset portfolio.

2. Key points that need to be mastered in investment

1. Grasp the market focus

The trend direction of the market midline is generally determined by a certain market focus. At the same time, the market is constantly looking for changing focuses of attention as material for speculation. Of course, the shift in market focus is also completed unconsciously, and there cannot be an obvious dividing line. Inferences can only be made through market public opinion and certain relevant information, and the possibility of incorrect inferences cannot be ruled out.

2. Discipline comes first

Before deciding to enter the market, you must first understand whether your risk and expected return are equal, and use this to determine the target entry price and stop-loss price. Especially for novices, they often completely forget the original plan after entering the market, or even if they remember it, they cannot strictly abide by it. Especially when the price is about to reach its stop loss price, they compromise with themselves and temporarily change the established stop price. The loss price was even canceled altogether, resulting in a huge loss. In the ever-changing financial market, if you don't abide by discipline and don't strictly stop losses, there is no way to survive, because you are far from reaching the state of calmness in front of prices.

3. The market is always right

The biggest mistake investors make is often to refuse to admit defeat in front of the market, to bow their heads and to be stubborn. But please remember that the market price already contains all the information of the market. The market will never be wrong. The fault lies with you. Don't be self-righteous, don't have vanity, decide your action plan based on the information the market gives you, and admit your mistakes immediately if you make a mistake. This is the long-lasting way of the market.

4. Don’t believe in rules

There are absolutely no so-called rules for the trend of any financial instrument, and there is no formula to follow that can absolutely guarantee profits. Otherwise, wouldn’t everyone become a millionaire? Millionaires? The mentality of believing that market trends exist in patterns assumes that history will repeat itself. Many experts often study the reasons for the rise and fall in the past, and then expect that as long as these reasons are repeated, the general trend will rise and fall accordingly. However, when you accept any such statement, you might as well ask yourself why thousands of smart people have spent decades studying but have not become rich because of it. Maybe this will make you clearer and not easily believe in the so-called law.

5. Go with the trend

As a global market, the capital market or gold market, even speculative funds with huge amounts of money cannot determine the market price, let alone individual investors. Therefore, the wisest way is to follow the market trend. Playing against the market is like trying to do something you cannot do without your own capabilities.

3. Analysis of the quality or risk points of various investment assets

Asset management capabilities are mainly measured by whether the proportion of various assets is reasonable and the speed of turnover. The level of asset quality is an important indicator and final result of the risk of asset management.

Zhang Xinmin believes that asset quality refers to the liquidity of assets or the quality of further utilization by enterprises. The magnitude of asset management risk is ultimately reflected in the difference between the asset's book value and its realized value or potential value.

Li Zhiyuan believes that the size of asset management risks can be reflected in the texture, structure, performance, durability and age of the assets and other details.

A company's asset management risks are mainly reflected in: whether the realizable value is high and stable; whether the asset structure is reasonable and scientifically matched with short-term and long-term funding sources; the size of the non-performing asset ratio; whether the asset turnover rate is fast; Whether the assets are obtained, used, and sold legally and in compliance with regulations; whether the use and consumption of assets are beneficial to people's physical and mental health.

1. Analysis of risk points of monetary funds

The holdings of monetary funds are unreasonable; the internal control system in the process of collecting and disbursing monetary funds is defective and its actual implementation is not thorough. There are wasteful and unvalue-for-money expenses; national monetary fund management regulations are not strictly followed; the quality of monetary fund composition is low (different currency values, different manifestations), and there is a risk of asset depreciation.

The internal control risk in the company's monetary fund revenue and expenditure is mainly reflected in the loss of control of monetary fund management rights, which leads to moral hazard and adverse selection. The company's daily fund receipts and expenditures should be completed by personnel or departments with different authorizations as much as possible; the approval authority should be strictly implemented in accordance with the stop-loss regulations set by the company; unrestrained involvement in the speculation of derivative financial instruments is strictly prohibited; the annual salary of senior executives It should be linked to the company's economic benefits, and the gap with ordinary employees should be less than 5 times; in order to improve employee enthusiasm and ensure the safety, integrity and operating efficiency of the company's monetary funds.

2. Analysis of risk points of accounts receivable

First, the age of accounts receivable is short and the amount is small; the proportion of accounts receivable with long age is lower than that of the same period. Industry level;

Second, the debtor composition must be reasonable, with high credibility, stable operations, timely correspondence and communication, sufficient and timely information on the debtor, and little or no connection with the debtor;

Third, the company’s credit policy is of high quality, and the credit standards are tight and tight. Credit conditions vary depending on the creditworthiness of the debtor. The collection policy pays attention to the cost-benefit principle, and the amount of collection is linked to the salary and bonus of the collection personnel;

< p>Fourth, the amount and ratio of bad and bad debts are lower than those in the same industry and within the controllable range; the mortgage guarantee transfer of accounts receivable is used flexibly and is compliant and legal;

Fifth, the transfer of receivable items The debtor is established as a mortgage or guaranteed claim or to purchase the other party's products on credit for an equal amount;

Sixth, the bad debt loss rate, opportunity cost and management cost are lower than those in the same industry;

Seventh, cash receipts from sales The rate is high, the cash collection guarantee rate is high, and the company's daily cash needs are less dependent on the collection of accounts receivable;

Eighth, the promotion function and inventory reduction function have obvious effects.

Example 20-1 Changhong’s account receivable was defrauded: Changhong belongs to the highly competitive electronic and electrical industry. In order to expand overseas markets, Changhong adopted a strategy of entering the US market in 2001. All overseas agents are handed over to APEX, a company that has a certain influence overseas. President Changhong deals with APEX on the basis of delivery first and payment later. Company A has been continuously shipping color power supplies to the United States since July 2001. Although factoring procedures were adopted, by the end of 2004, Changhong's debt in APEX's name was as high as US$470 million, equivalent to nearly 4 billion yuan. The huge burden has overwhelmed Changhong, and it has to make huge provisions for bad debts for this high amount of arrears. I would like to ask: ① What is the reason why Changhong was defrauded of its huge accounts receivable? ②How to prevent similar incidents from happening?

3. Inventory risk point analysis

Inventory structure risk mainly refers to the risks brought to the enterprise by unreasonable holding ratios of raw materials, work in progress and finished goods. Inventory depreciation risk refers to the risk that the inventory value is lower than expected due to damage, deterioration, sluggishness, unmarketability, inventory depreciation, etc. The reasons for inventory depreciation may be due to inherent deficiencies in the physical quality of the inventory (natural quality); unoptimistic inventory timeliness (shelf life, content stability, technical relevance); oversupply in the market, too fast or too slow turnover, etc.

The risk of unreasonable inventory holdings refers to the losses caused to an enterprise by having too high or too low inventory holdings. Excessive inventory holdings will increase inventory storage costs, opportunity costs and management costs. If the inventory holding amount is too low, it will increase the purchase cost of inventory, loss of stockout, loss of reputation, etc.

4. Analysis of long-term investment risk points

Whether the comprehensive feasibility evaluation before investment is scientific; whether the investment and bidding procedures are compliant and legal; whether there are scientific Post-project evaluation; whether the realizable value of the long-term investment is greater than the investment cost and growing steadily; whether the net investment income is positive and growing steadily; whether the investment income from the investment exceeds the income level of government bonds; the financial status, operating results and cash flow of the invested unit Whether the situation is stable, whether the market price is higher than the book value and stable; whether there is a phenomenon of short-term investment in long-term investment (which can increase the current ratio but not the solvency). Long-term investment risk control mainly refers to whether the company's investment risk is properly measured and controlled and whether it is properly measured and controlled. issues that are symmetrical with returns; whether the company has the ability to analyze investment uncertainties, whether it has a risk warning and prevention mechanism before and during the investment process; and whether it has a risk liability accountability and evaluation mechanism after the investment.

5. Analysis of fixed asset risk points

The internal control risks of fixed assets are mainly blind purchase and construction, capital expenditures occupying production costs, fixed assets surplus not being recorded, and fixed assets being idle Risks arising from not processing, not recording the residual value of fixed assets, falsely increasing (subtracting) depreciation, falsely listing maintenance expenses, etc. Fixed assets do not have value-added potential because they have poor ability to replace fixed assets and unstable physical properties; the turnover rate is too high or too low, resulting in low ability to generate income and profits; the proportion of idle or non-performing fixed assets is large and the timing of disposal is inappropriate. , there is a loss of assets; the ability to replace fixed assets is weak, there is no economic life decision-making, and technology is always in a backward state; the mortgage replacement rate and loan ratio of fixed assets are low and not accepted by financial institutions; the lease and purchase of fixed assets is not suitable; fixed The management procedures for the purchase, use, depreciation, overhaul, scrapping, and transfer of assets are not standardized, the capital chain is often broken, and the guarantee rate is not high.

6. Analysis of risk points of land use rights

Whether the company has idle land reserves; whether there are secret reserves in land value accounting and full disclosure; use of land use rights Whether there are any disputes or lawsuits in the transfer, transfer or leasing; whether the land use efficiency is high enough; whether the land transfer and leasing prices are reasonable, compliant and legal; whether the land reserves are too little or too much; whether the state-owned enterprises originally allocated the land for free and then transferred the proceeds Whether the distribution is legal and legal, etc.

7. Analysis of risk points of intangible assets

First, the company’s own ability to develop intangible assets is weak and unsustainable;

Second, intangible assets The ability to create excess returns is weak and the time is short;

Third, intangible assets have no value-added potential for external transfer or investment;

Fourth, intangible assets are not well combined with other assets ;

Fifth, the intellectual capital of enterprises is weak and has no potential, and the ability to control intangible assets is weakening year by year.

If a company obviously has intangible assets that others, including foreigners, are envious of, but does not know how to use them as value for equity investment or how to register a trademark in a foreign country before exporting to that country, then it is not known. If we protect, cultivate and use them flexibly, then companies will be looking for food with their golden dolls in hand. Sooner or later, they will be tempted by high-priced acquisitions by foreign capital and lose their control and ownership. (Cloisonne, Four Great Classics, Goubuli, etc. were preemptively registered by Japan, and Wuliangye, Red Star Erguotou, Jiugui, Sanbian and other brands were preemptively registered by South Korea)

Example 20-2 Assume that Hainan Lugui Wine will be sold every year in the future The net profit was 250 million yuan, the income tax rate was 33%, and the minimum return rate in 1996 was 20%. The value of tangible assets is 163.475 million yuan. Assuming that the company can survive for 60 years, the exchange rate is 1:8.5.

What is the value of the winery’s intangible assets in US dollars?

8. Analysis of risk points of investment in derivative financial instruments

The actual operation must be carried out by well-trained professional institutions or talents who invest in derivative financial products; it must be carefully predicted and carried out by the enterprise. It must be carried out on the basis of rigorous demonstration and full consultation and approval by the general meeting of shareholders; it must be broken down into parts in a step-by-step manner, and stop-loss points must be set, and it must not blindly advance to the point of being uncontrollable and irreversible; senior financial managers of enterprises must establish that capital security and capital preservation are the first priority The concept of "first priority, profit second"; once a huge investment risk in derivative financial instruments occurs, we can promptly remedy it and hold the relevant personnel accountable for their decision-making errors.

Example 20-3 The Singapore subsidiary of China National Aviation Oil Co., Ltd. began to participate in oil futures options trading in the second half of 2003. At that time, oil prices fluctuated and rose. China National Aviation Oil Co., Ltd. won the first battle, with a profit of US$5.8 million in 2003. In the first quarter of 2004, China National Aviation Oil started shorting when the oil price rose to over 30 US dollars. After that, it increased its position as it lost more and more. Finally, it shorted 52 million barrels of oil. When the oil price exceeded 50 yuan, it was forced to liquidate its position, resulting in a total loss of about 550 million US dollars. .

9. Venture capital funds

Venture capital funds, also called venture capital, are invested by professional financiers in emerging, rapidly developing companies with huge competitive potential. a type of equity capital.

Characteristics of venture capital funds: ① It is a high-risk investment; 30% succeed, 30% remain flat, and 40% fail; ② It is a high-yield investment: from 1995 to 1997, the U.S. return rate was 48%, 40% % and 36%, with a contribution rate of 65% to 85% to the national economy; ③ It belongs to portfolio investment; ④ It belongs to long-term investment: 3 to 7 years; ⑤ It belongs to equity capital, which makes up for the inability of the government to invest and the inability of banks to lend support to high-income countries. The functions of technology companies are missing; ⑥ It is a professional investment; ⑦ It integrates financing and investment, supplying capital and providing management services; ⑧ It is operated by venture capital companies - mostly private partnerships; ⑨ Venture capitalists You need to be bold and careful, and think twice; ⑩ Venture capitalists are both investors and operators; the ultimate goal of venture capital is not holding, but exit.

The development of venture capital funds in the United States gives us inspiration: ① The law provides protection and the tax rate should be low. ②The government should create conditions rather than directly intervene. ③The investment objects are mainly high-tech projects but are not limited to them. ④Talent training and selection are the keys to the success of venture capital.

Companies that started as famous venture capital companies in the world: chip manufacturer Intel Corporation - venture capitalist Rock; American Data Equipment Company US$70,000, with a stock market value of US$355 million 14 years later - venture capital company ARD ; Apple Computer, Microsoft, LOTUS, Compaq, SUN Microsystems, Cisco; American genetic engineering company: accounting for 1.6% of U.S. biopharmaceutical sales - venture capitalist Swanson; founded by Zuckerberg when he was a sophomore Facebook received US$12 million in venture capital in 2005 and had a market value of US$17.6 billion in 2010. Famous Chinese companies such as Little Sheep, Sohu, Baidu, and NetEase all started through venture capital and went public.

Venture investment faces eight major legal risks: information asymmetry of venture investment entities; lack of market prospects for technology development; legality of intellectual property rights of venture enterprises; inability to conclude venture investment agreements; improper protection of business secrets; and inaccurate due diligence and errors in legal opinions; friction in the implementation of venture capital agreements; failure to transfer venture capital, IPO, equity transfer, and liquidation.