In June 2020, before the "Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" (released in October 2020) and the "New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan" (released in November 2020) were released , Geely Automobile, the leading player in China's automobile industry, has once again stepped into the spotlight ahead of schedule.
Geely Automobile registered the trademark "Easy Battery Swap" and began to develop its own new energy vehicle battery swap business. Three months later, before the two major national guidelines were implemented, Geely's new energy vehicle battery swap business The electricity business has already begun to advance.
On September 16, 2020, Geely Technology Group released the battery swap model, which can replace batteries in vehicles in as fast as 2 minutes; on October 18, 2020, Geely’s battery swap station completed 2 Chongqing + Jinan At the end of November 2020, Geely Technology and Chongqing Expressway completed the signing of an agreement to lay out battery swapping; on January 26, 2021, Geely and Lifan's new company was unveiled, and Lifan Technology produced battery swapping models for Geely Technology; At the end of May 2021, Yibin Yinglun Automobile Co., Ltd. was established, with Geely Holding indirectly wholly-owned it and continuing to increase its power swap business. I couldn't understand Geely's takeover of Lifan before, but now it seems that it is the basis for a large layout in the southwest region.
In other words, from the beginning of the research and development of battery swapping technology in 2017, to the registration of trademarks and the release of smart battery swapping stations in 2020, and the establishment of a new company in 2021, Geely has actually been "quietly" commercializing battery swapping. It took 1 year.
In line with favorable policies, great market prospects, and its own execution capabilities/fund reserves/brand reputation, one thing that is clear is that Geely has benefits for the company's own development in the field of battery replacement, and can even Influence industry development.
To analyze the challenges Geely and other car companies that want to enter the battery swap industry will face in the battery swap field, we need to raise and answer several questions.
First of all, in China’s automobile industry, why has battery swapping only now received policy-related recognition?
The essential reason is that the basic hardware capabilities are insufficient and there is a major disadvantage in the charging mode. Insufficient hardware capabilities include the ability to solve the high cost of large-scale promotion of battery swap stations, the ability to solve safety hazards related to frequent battery plugging and unplugging, the entire energy storage industry is in its infancy and cannot achieve breakeven, and the batteries of various car brands/battery companies There are differences in structure/material selection/technical standards, etc.
Expensive, not only in terms of battery cost and basic cost of the battery replacement station, but also in operating costs. Take NIO's latest second-generation power swap station as an example. The cost of a single power swap station is 1.5 million yuan, and the maximum power swap capacity is 312 times per day. It also has overall high operating costs/personnel costs/other supporting costs. Calculated based on the initial battery replacement fee standard of 180 yuan/time charged by NIO, the second-generation battery swap station that has evolved to 2021 will have a higher battery swap capacity and a daily revenue of 56,000 yuan based on the theoretical maximum number. . Like the automobile industry, it is a long-term industry with heavy capital investment and slow returns.
The current pattern of the entire new energy vehicle battery swapping industry is that almost the vast majority of them are to B-type businesses, such as logistics vehicles, taxis, operating models, special vehicles, etc., and for to C-type businesses , essentially only NIO is advancing.
Secondly, is battery swapping for new energy vehicles good or bad for users?
When it comes to users, the current common response is that they need to adapt and complain more. Because at present, the vehicles that use battery swapping are mainly operational vehicles. Passenger vehicles such as buses/minibuses have a relatively low acceptance rate because the frequency of battery swapping is relatively low. The frequency of battery swapping for logistics vehicles is relatively high, but because most of the costs are paid by the company, The acceptance level is acceptable; taxis and other operating vehicles expressed stronger opinions. The new energy taxis currently used in Beijing are the BAIC New Energy brand. After calculating the cost, the driver found that although the speed of recharging energy caught up with traditional fuel taxis, the final cost was even higher than that of fuel vehicles (because there is no fuel subsidy) , and at the same time, it cannot solve the problem of mileage anxiety in medium and long-distance services.
Private users (taking Weilai users as an example) are more receptive to battery swapping. The reason is that the vehicles have a rich set of energy replenishment options, including household slow charging/fast charging, and three-party charging piles. Weilai cooperates with three-party charging piles, battery swapping, cow car energy replenishment, etc. According to the deployment of battery swap stations around residence or work, relatively reasonable deployment can be carried out.
Up to now, the new energy vehicle battery swapping industry is growing at a good rate. From the initial attempts/cultivation/burning money, it has gradually begun to be accepted by more private consumers. However, the entire industry is still far away from maturity. The core problem faced by operating vehicles is that the price of battery swapping is too high and dilutes real income. The biggest problem faced by commercial vehicles and private vehicles is the number of battery swapping stations, The scope of the battery swap station and the rationality of the layout of the battery swap station.
Solve the inconvenience of use, reduce the cost of battery swapping, increase the layout of battery swapping stations, give battery swapping stations a good operating model basis and rules, and provide reasonable management methods, etc. This is the global new energy that can be seen currently The pain points encountered by the car battery swapping mode.
Analyzing Geely's current chess game from these perspectives, it has basically achieved a head start advantage.
First, the basic power swapping capability. According to the latest power swapping technology released by Geely in September 2020, it uses dual warehouse stations, has 39 batteries, adopts an unattended design, and is compatible with Axis 2700- For the 3100mm model, the time from the beginning to the end of battery replacement for the lifted vehicle is within 2 minutes.
From a technical perspective, Geely’s battery swap station has many advantages and few disadvantages. In terms of power swap speed, BAIC New Energy’s version 4.0 currently has a power swap speed of about 150 seconds. NIO’s speed is similar to that of NIO. However, NIO’s second-generation power swap station has a better technical model and does not require lifting. The number of double warehouse stations, 39 batteries, etc. is also normal. The disadvantage is that in the compatibility part, it can be clearly seen that what Geely is currently preparing is specifically to match operating vehicles, rather than social private cars. There are also certain shortcomings in terms of unattended operation. During the long-term test of the NIO ES6 battery swap during the Spring Festival this year, I encountered a bug at the battery swap station. Workers with mature skills manually performed the battery swap, and the battery swap speed was not inherently slow. If there is no one on duty, it is likely that the efficiency of the battery swap station will become worse and it will be unable to cope with emergencies.
In terms of order of magnitude and scope, Geely’s current power swap planning goals are very high. Once completed, it will have advantages in coverage capacity/convenience. In 2020, the number of battery swap stations signed with Geely exceeded 1,000. In 2025, Geely's planning target is 5,000. What is different from the industry is that it has launched relevant cooperation with the government's highway department. At present, in the southwest region, the original Lifan Automobile production capacity can produce Geely's models with Geely's battery swap technology. At the same time, Geely is cooperating with Chongqing Expressway to deploy battery swap stations.
In other words, as Geely completes its initial deployment in the southwest region, it will have relevant operational experience, solve logic, discover relevant problems, and complete its own deployment of operating vehicles. At that time, there was actually only one company with the same scale as NIO in the market, and the planned number was also to complete the deployment of about 5,000 seats.
But the difference is that NIO’s business model is more targeted at the C-side and consumer side, while Geely’s business model, currently, is based on the B-side. After the B-side has matured, , gradually attract and satisfy C-end users.
The current Geely battery swap business has taken initial shape. With heavy investment, I believe that the time for its real results will be closer and closer. Whether Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda, Nissan, General Motors, Changan, Great Wall or other car companies will choose to keep up, the answer is currently no.
Battery swapping technology needs to be considered from the fundamental design dimension of the vehicle. Volkswagen has not revealed its willingness to swap batteries in the advancement of the ID. series. At the same time, it has to keep up with the world in China. According to the rhythm, standardize the battery cells. On the one hand, several Japanese companies have a relatively steady pace of winning, and on the other hand, they also have different technical strategies. Toyota's gasoline-electric hybrid + PHEV, Honda's i-MMD + PHEV, and Nissan's e-POWER.
Among Chinese brands, everyone’s choices are expected to be quite different.
Changan's current new energy business is relatively lagging behind, and mainstream products have not yet been launched. Great Wall Motors, while maintaining mainstream products, has chosen hydrogen energy as one of its corporate strategies to promote.
Ultimately, what can be expected is that in 2025, when Geely and Weilai have completed their own set goals, the battery swap market will truly begin to mature. Only then will there be "battery swap, A new conclusion: charging or hybrid, which one is better?