In the past twenty years, if you want to ask what the return on investment is large and stable, then the answer must be real estate. You know, the real estate in China has increased more than five times in the past twenty years. From the average price of more than 2,000 yuan in 2000 to now, it has exceeded the 10,000 yuan mark. Basically, it is rising every year, so investing in real estate is also a sure-fire business. Some economists say that China's livelihood real estate market has now become a battlefield for real estate speculation, which has been vividly reflected in the past 10 years. 500,000 deposit, 202 1 Should I "buy a house" or "put it in the bank"? Economists tell the truth!

According to the data given by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2000, the national average house price was 1948 yuan. In the past 20 years, the national average house price has risen to 10448 yuan, an increase of 5.36 times. Among them, the highest increase in the four first-tier cities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen exceeded 30 times. Moreover, in the past 20 years, the proportion of investment housing demand in China has also increased significantly, from less than 10% to more than 85% now.

To sum up, in the past twenty years, many people have gained amazing wealth by relying on real estate, and countless China people have been involved in this feast of making profits by investing in real estate. To put it bluntly, real estate is the best investment project, and the investment attribute is above the residential attribute. It can be said that the interests represented by the real estate industry have gone beyond the people's livelihood.

What's more, in this prosperous real estate feast, all the participants are fearless. The main reason is that China's real estate and industrial chain account for more than 30% of China's GDP, which shows its importance. Experts also expressed the view that real estate is the only way to save China's economy, and economic development cannot be separated from the support of real estate. I have to say that under the blessing of this view, these people who invest in real estate speculation are more emboldened.

The country's "real estate speculation"

With more and more people investing in real estate speculation, house prices have soared, which will inevitably affect real property buyers. Therefore, in the case of intensified real estate speculation, the weather in the property market has finally arrived. /kloc-at the end of 0/6, the state put forward the policy of "no speculation in housing" for the first time, which made the real estate market in the next four years seem to be wearing electronic monitoring instruments.

At the same time, under the triple control of finance, land and demand, the real estate market is gradually depressed, and housing prices in many cities have begun to return to a stable state, and some cities have been returned to their original forms. This is also the first time in the past 20 years that investment in real estate speculation has fallen into an unprofitable era, especially in cities where the increase in house prices cannot cover expenditures, and investment in real estate speculation has been in a state of constant loss.

If you had 500 thousand in your hand ten years ago, you must have joined the real estate field without thinking. First, the housing problem is solved, and then social resources such as education, household registration, marriage and medical care are tied up. The premise of enjoying these urban dividends is to have a house. The most important thing is that it was the golden age of rising house prices, and investing in buying a house was also the most ideal asset appreciation model with the greatest income and no loss. After all, too many people have explained this truth with personal experience, and it is not normal not to be moved.

2 1 year 500,000 cash to buy a house or deposit it in the bank?

Unconsciously, it has reached 2 1, which is also the fifth year of strict control of the property market. If you have 500 thousand now, do you want to buy a house or deposit it in the bank? Economist Li Xunlei also gave the answer. He said that in most cities, saving 500,000 yuan in the bank is more cost-effective than buying a house. Because the era of buying real estate with closed eyes has passed, investing in real estate is not the best investment direction under such circumstances.

Earlier, Li Xunlei delivered a speech, in which he mentioned that in the past 10 years, house prices have increased by 10 times, and buying a house is undoubtedly the best way to make a profit from investment. But in the next 10 year, the property market will undergo unprecedented changes, and it is very likely that in the next 10 year, the house price will only increase by 1 times.

So in this case, buying a house is no longer a steady business, which can actually be calculated. For example, after buying a house, capital cost, construction depreciation cost and tax cost should be excluded. Therefore, if you want to make money, the annual price increase and decrease must be at least 8% to ensure no loss. In that case, it is better not to waste so much energy on buying a house, and you can get a stable income by depositing cash in the bank. After all, investing in real estate may also encounter inferior real estate. Saving money in the bank not only saves time and effort, but also reduces losses.

Of course, what Li Xunlei said may not be all right, but at least he refers to most real estate, not all real estate. So in this case, real estate investment in some cities is still valuable. For example, in some areas of Shenzhen, the increase last year was as high as 15%, and even some properties earned 5 million when they were bought. So this situation is obviously incomparable to deposit banks.

However, the most important thing to note is that in the context of the gradual tightening of property market regulation in the future, whether it is first-tier cities or a few first-tier cities, the possibility of a sharp rise in housing prices is slim. So from the economist's point of view, of course, it is more reliable to deposit 500 thousand in the bank than to buy a house.

Feng Lun, a real estate tycoon who holds the same view as Li Xunlei, has said more than once that the era of the current property market has passed. If all the money is your own hard-earned money, then you must not invest in buying a house. If it is found or the money in the lottery, you can take a chance. It can also be seen from Feng Lun's words that investing in real estate is not cost-effective, especially in cities with average performance in population, economy and finance. If you buy a house in these cities, you are likely to lose money in the end.

Both Ma Yun and Dong Mingzhu agreed.

For real estate, Internet tycoon Jack Ma also has his own views. Although Ma Yun did not involve the real estate business, he has said more than once that real estate is a project that lies down to make money. With the development of time, he has expressed different views on real estate many times. When 17 real estate was still booming, he said that in the future, the house is the cheapest thing, and buying a house is like buying an onion. Like cars, houses will be built more and more, so the more the quantity, the cheaper the price will definitely be. So he also advised young people not to rush to buy a house, but to consider how to do business first.

Now Ma Yun's remarks have been said for more than three years, but some of them have been verified. For example, among the 80 contracted cities announced by the state, Yumen, Rushan, Hegang, Jixi and other places have seen little increase in house prices in the past three years. Because of the population loss, weak industry and lack of resources, the house price is very cheap, and the average two-bedroom and one-bedroom apartment can be obtained as long as 20,000 to 30,000 yuan. Therefore, judging from the trend of housing prices in these cities, 2 1 deposit 500,000 in the bank is better.

This view of Ma Yun is also amazing. Nothing has changed in the past three years. At the 20-year economic forum, Ma Yun once again made a statement that the property market may be highly disintegrated in the future. It can be seen from these remarks that Ma Yun is still pessimistic about the future property market. Obviously, now he no longer suggests continuing to invest in buying a house, so compared with buying a house, Ma Yun will advocate using this 500,000 to deposit in the bank, or start a business, or join other projects with more investment value, instead of blindly following the trend to invest in real estate.

Gree boss Dong Mingzhu basically agrees with Ma Yun. She once said that young people were not advised to invest in real estate, and even pointed out that real estate facilities were seriously inadequate. If you have money now, you might as well put it in the bank for more profitable investment instead of buying a house. From Dong Mingzhu's point of view, it is obvious that the ceiling of real estate is within reach now, and then it will go downhill. Dong Mingzhu also said that many young people buy houses as soon as they graduate. After all, young people who have just graduated have nothing and their jobs are unstable. It is very undesirable for them to start learning opportunism without knowing what they want to do.

Personal analysis

First of all, let's take a look at this conclusion about the lack of real estate support. It can be said that this conclusion is by no means correct, and it is not just a joke. Since last year, the supply of new houses in China has obviously exceeded the demand, and house prices have actually reached the bottleneck of falling. In addition, from the perspective of top-level regulation, the state also hopes that domestic real estate can maintain steady development, in short, it cannot be ups and downs. In this case, it means that it is difficult to make a profit in a short time by 2 1.

Another point, 2 1, the state is also vigorously promoting the old reform, from which we can see the purpose of the state to stabilize housing prices. The 220,000 old-fashioned residential areas in China are no longer demolished and rebuilt, but rebuilt on the original basis. In this case, the property market is equivalent to losing the booster of rising. With the completion of the five-year old reform, the demand for full housing will definitely ease a lot, and eventually lose the most important driving force for housing price increases. Buying a house now is not as good as making other investments. From this point of view, Dong Mingzhu's meaning is very clear, that is, he hopes that young people can keep their feet on the ground, don't engage in so many opportunism, and think about making big money in this way at a young age, rather than relying on hard work. This is very unfavorable to the healthy development of teenagers, and over time there will be bad styles. So in fact, from Dong Mingzhu's words, I will make the physical manufacturing industry to the extreme, and I can see Dong Mingzhu's position. Generally speaking, Dong Mingzhu and Ma Yun share the same view. For example, using real estate investment to gain income is really not conducive to the development of young people. Therefore, they also advocate that young people should focus on their careers, especially young people with high academic qualifications should use what they have learned to change their wealth.

abstract

So on the whole, no matter economists, real estate tycoons, Ma Yun and Dong Mingzhu, tycoons in all fields have expressed the same views. That is, buying a house in the future is not suitable for investment, so if you have 500 thousand in your hand, it is definitely more cost-effective to deposit it in the bank than to buy a house. Of course, from a practical point of view, it is not to let everyone really put their money in the bank, but to let everyone shift their investment from real estate.

Therefore, after reading this article, those friends who still want to devote themselves to real estate should reconsider. After all, what the bosses say is not groundless. At the same time, we should learn more about the national real estate policy, so as to know the real situation of China real estate at this stage and not be brainwashed by the so-called real estate developers. Finally, I want to quote Feng Lun. If you have money, you might as well try investing in real estate. If you earned it hard, don't.