I recently read an article in which the author said that the poorer you are, the more you have to buy a house.

The reason is that the poor have a relatively low ability to resist risks, so they have to rely on a safer method such as buying a house to leave a way out for themselves.

It is also said that those who advise poor people not to buy houses are generally rich people like Jack Ma and Buffett, because rich people have more channels to make money, while poor people can only rely on buying houses to maintain and increase their value.

I must say that when the economy is stable, there is nothing wrong with this idea, because since 2003, real estate in Beijing and Shanghai has increased by an average of 20% per year. 15 years ago, I would even recommend that you borrow money to buy a car.

But now, all logic has changed.

Even if they just need a house, I do not recommend that friends with low and middle incomes buy a house now.

I wrote about a friend two years ago who bought a shabby apartment in Beijing during the epidemic. The total price was 3.58 million, with a down payment of 1.4 million and a monthly mortgage of just over 10,000.

During the epidemic, her work has been greatly affected. After paying off her mortgage every month, she only has 2,000 yuan left for living expenses.

Furthermore, her parents were deprived of their wealth because of this house, so she could only rely on credit cards to survive, feeling anxious and panicked every day.

I bought a house and became a wealthy person, but my life became even more difficult. My hair fell out every day.

This is actually the norm for many people. They always feel that a house is the most stable asset and may appreciate in value. A mortgage is far more cost-effective than rent, so you can buy it with your eyes closed.

But buying a house will wipe out your savings and cut off your cash flow. If your income decreases even a little bit, the pressure will increase sharply.

What’s more, it’s no longer 17 years ago. Not to mention the second- and third-tier cities, even the housing prices in first-tier cities have not increased significantly. Therefore, buying a house will most likely not improve your fault tolerance rate. On the contrary, it may Get down on your back.

It is equivalent to carrying debt for 30 years when the risk is greatest.

As the saying goes, don’t compete for the first flow of money. What is important is to keep the flow. And taking on a mortgage now means cutting off your flow of money.

Today I will share why low- and middle-income friends don’t buy houses now.

1) Everyone’s situation is different. If you buy a suite and it’s just a waste of time, I suggest you close this article.

But if you need to spend all your savings to buy a house, the monthly payment may exceed 60% of your monthly income. I suggest you read this article.

2) When economic risks increase, you must maintain sufficient cash flow instead of thinking about buying a house.

Because once you lose your job, have your salary suspended, or have your salary cut, and you have already emptied six wallets, you still have to repay the loan, and you will feel unprecedented pressure.

Believe me, although this situation is not the majority, it is by no means uncommon.

When the economic situation is not good, it is better to ensure your cash flow first, especially those who are at risk of unemployment. Try not to hand over your savings as much as possible. If you are still working, try to save money. Reduce consumption and reduce consumption.

3) The real estate market has never had a fault-tolerant mechanism for ordinary investors.

It does not mean that you can sit back and relax after buying a house and improve your ability to resist risks. Asset-heavy people never have the ability to resist risks. This is common sense.

Once the price of heavy assets drops, it is possible to lose everything.

For the poor, the real estate market has never been fault-tolerant.

The real estate market used to seem to be the most suitable for the poor, not because it had a fault-tolerant mechanism, but because the market was rising. Once it starts to trade sideways or decline, the people who will be most hurt will definitely be those who have emptied their savings.

For example, Yanjiao in Hebei Province has always been an important town for Beijing workers to buy houses. Because it was widely rumored that the Beijing Municipal Government would move to Yanjiao, and a subway to Beijing was to be built, many people bought the houses at high prices.

But the question is, why does Beijing move the municipal government to Hebei?

As a result, the average house price in Yanjiao dropped from 35,000 to 18,000, and the wealth that most ordinary families had worked hard for their whole life was just gone.

These houses were sold at reduced prices and no one took them, so they could only pay the mortgage at the original price. This process may last more than 20 years.

Even if someone can sell the house at a deep discount, it may not be able to cover the mortgage loan.

Many people have the illusion that house prices will continue to rise and will not fall anyway, at least not sharply. Therefore, they must be high-quality assets that can increase the fault tolerance rate of the poor.

But the starting point of this logic is problematic. House prices will not always rise, nor will they never fall.

Especially because no matter whether the house price is high or low, you still have to repay the loan at the original price, so you have to be cautious.

4) You can buy a house with your eyes closed if it is not a rigid necessity. Buying a house is never a rigid necessity, only having a house to live in is.

Many people say that if you just need it, you can buy a house with your eyes closed.

In fact, this is not the case at all. Buying a house as a heavy asset investment may cost you six wallets. If in the next five to ten years, when you want to replace it, the house has dropped by 30 , can you bear it?

Buying a house has never been a necessity, but having a house to live in is. Under the current circumstances, renting is far more cost-effective and more practical than buying.

5) At this time, we must still insist that cash is king. Do not borrow, invest, or buy a house until you are desperate.

Kan Beast Master posted an article a few days ago, saying that many people in Zhengzhou have cut off their mortgage payments, more than 30,000 apartments have become foreclosures, and the credit card overdue rate and mortgage loan non-performing rate have increased. .

This means that many people are no longer in debt.

Don’t think that individual cases have nothing to do with you. This is actually a very bad sign.

Many people have been clamoring for a sharp drop in housing prices all day long, thinking that the real estate speculators must be the ones hurt, but in fact the real estate speculators either paid in full or had surplus funds, and most of them left a safe space.

The first person affected by falling house prices must be ordinary people who own houses, because it means the depreciation of all your assets.

6) Most houses have lost their investment value.

The reason why many people are keen on buying a house is because it can resist inflation and even maintain and increase its value.

However, the growth rates in most hot cities are not very large, let alone ordinary second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities and small counties.

My friend @京楼Observer said:

There are at least 80 second-hand houses in the Fifth Ring Road in Beijing, and the prices have not returned to the high point of 2017, and most of them are still expensive. There is a price difference of nearly 10%. From the lowest point to now, it has rebounded by 15~20% in 4 years.

Of course, there are still many areas and communities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen that are seeing huge increases, but most of them are not as big as before.

In third-, fourth- and fifth-tier cities, especially those with net population outflow and policies to strengthen provincial capitals, houses have even less investment value.

7) The sense of security is not brought by the house, but by the cash.

Many people think that having their own apartment is a sense of security, but in fact this so-called sense of security is illusory and cannot really bring you security.

As a large asset investment, buying a house must be an investment behavior at its core, not a pursuit of a feeling.

As a million-level asset, a house may be a lifetime savings for many people. It is obviously unreasonable to invest purely for a sense of security without looking at liquidity, value trends, or income expectations. of.

Of course, this concept may be difficult for most people to accept.

Don’t always think that a house is the best asset for the poor. This may be true at other times, but when the economy is under pressure, especially when the epidemic brings a lot of uncertainty, holding money and waiting will be more beneficial. is the best strategy.

The logic of the times that house prices will always rise and you will never lose money when buying a house may be changing now.

Always leave yourself with sufficient cash flow. The sense of security comes from cash, not from a house.

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