Abstract: Recently, the author was invited to participate in the "Internet Payment" sub-forum of the China E-Commerce Conference and gave a keynote speech on "Supply-side Reform and Financial Technology". Beijing Business Daily recorded and published the full text, and the excerpt is as follows:
Xue Hongyan: Distinguished guests and friends, good afternoon everyone. I am very glad that the organizer invited Suning Financial Research Institute to participate in this forum. The topic I want to share today is supply-side reform and financial technology. I will mainly talk about some of the opportunities facing the development of financial technology under the current supply-side reform situation and the development trends and background of Internet payment.
First, look at a picture. This picture takes the banking industry as a representative and describes the problems faced by the banking industry in the past five years. As the real economy continues to slump, the non-performing rate continues to rise, and the growth rate of net profit continues to decline. This is what we are talking about about supply. Focus on the macroeconomic background of the financial industry before reform.
Based on this background, the Central Economic Work Conference in December last year formally proposed supply-side reform. What impact will supply-side reform have on financial institutions? The supply-side reform has proposed five major tasks. Let’s take a look at the first three tasks: cutting overcapacity, destocking, and deleveraging. The impact of these three tasks on the financial industry is concentrated in asset compression. Cutting overcapacity and inventory means removing collateral and zombie companies; deleveraging means removing debt and credit, which means compression of assets for financial institutions. What impact will compression have? There are two major impacts. First, it will lead to As the non-performing ratio rises, including cutting overcapacity and eliminating zombie companies, banks' non-performing loans will have a rapid upward trend; second, they will continue to face a lack of credit demand. In the context of supply-side structural reforms faced by traditional industries, financial institutions are also undergoing changes and innovations. Their main direction is to target new economic formats.
Next, let’s take a look at how the new economic formats will change the demand for financial services.
The general characteristics of the new economic format include the sharing economy, light assets and big data. The new economic format will generate a new demand for financial services. In fact, its demand has already been They have emerged, and I have listed a few, including social financial management, equity financing, online P2P lending, investment-loan linkage, etc.
What challenges does traditional finance face under the new economy and new financial needs? The credit risk prevention and control of traditional financial institutions mainly relies on the mortgage and pledge guarantee model. In the new business format, the new economy is an asset-light economy and a big data economy. This economy lacks qualified collateral. Therefore, traditional financial institutions will face some shortcomings in providing these services. This situation creates an opportunity for the rise of financial technology.
Financial technology emerged to meet niche financial needs. At the beginning, some new financial demands derived from the emergence of new business formats were very small and niche. New finance The amount of business is also very small. As new economic formats become larger and more dominant, new financial formats will play an increasingly important role in the differentiation process of the financial system. In the context of supply-side reform, the economic system will differentiate and accelerate the differentiation process of the financial system. In this way, financial technology will face a new development opportunity.
Financial technology is a new model, new process and service that will have a significant impact, change and even subvert traditional financial service methods and models. Judging from the current development status of international and domestic financial technology, it is mainly reflected in four major areas.
Payment settlement is the topic of discussion in today's forum. Payment settlement is a typical technology-driven industry. As some infrastructure matures, including electronic currency, cloud computing, blockchain and biometric technology, etc., Internet payment models and technologies are also continuing to move forward. Currently, payment settlement is still in the development stage of mobile payment under the background of mobile Internet.
Online financing. Internationally famous unicorns and everyone's impression of domestic Internet finance are mainly reflected in online financing. The popularization of big data risk control and machine learning provides a good prerequisite for the development of online financing and financial technology.
Robotic investment advisory, including social financial management, quantitative investment models, professional investment portfolios, etc. The logic of robo-advisors is that originally the services of investment advisors may be one-to-one, and the threshold requirements for investors are very high, such as millions of assets, etc. However, after the emergence of robo-advisors, it is equivalent to replacing high-end investments with Combinations, some investment and financial management technical know-how, etc. can be modeled, thereby greatly lowering the threshold and allowing more ordinary people to enjoy this kind of service. At present, robo-advisory has developed greatly in the United States, and several famous unicorns have been born. It is still in its infancy in China.
Finally, Internet insurance is also a relatively significant application field of financial technology.
I drew two arrows, including financial Internet, Internet finance, and shared finance, which represent the industry and academia’s most intellectual views on financial development. Looking forward, Internet finance is a process of financial Internet, but looking back, it is more of a process of enjoying finance. Internet finance is just a transitional concept. With the development of the sharing economy and new economic formats, it will develop in the direction of sharing finance in the future. Whether it is financial Internet, Internet finance, or digital finance, it is a manifestation of the application of financial technology in the financial field.
Internet payment. Internet payment is based on the process of Internet value exchange and relies on the development of Internet technology. At the beginning, it was a kind of desktop Internet era. Maybe it was a PC terminal for accessing the Internet. At that time, the payment was more Internet payment, that is, PC terminal payment. In recent years, its mainstream form has become the mobile Internet on the mobile side, including real-time online. It used to be online, but now it is online. Smart devices, including mobile ones, are becoming more and more popular and data can be recorded, entering an era of mobile Internet. Correspondingly, Internet payment has entered the era of mobile payment.
Where will payment develop in the future? As blockchain matures internationally, many blockchain laboratories have been established internationally and domestically to simulate payment and settlement using blockchain technology under experimental conditions.
With the advent of the blockchain and distributed era, our Internet payment will continue to develop into distributed payment or other methods. Blockchain solves several major problems in value exchange. In the process of value exchange, the first problem is the uniqueness of value. Blockchain can guarantee this problem. There is also trustworthiness. Third-party payment, including mobile payment, may solve the trust problem through third-party institutions. When driven by blockchain technology in the future, the blockchain itself can ensure the trustworthiness of its virtual space, including the trustworthiness of exchanges.
Finally, let’s talk about the current development status of mobile payment under the background of mobile Internet. In the era of mobile payment, the solution to the trust problem relies on third-party intermediaries, that is, non-bank payment institutions. Third-party payment mainly relies on digital certificates, static passwords, electronic signatures, etc., as well as some biometrics, fingerprint payments, etc. to solve security issues. There are currently three major scenarios, including online payment, issuance and acceptance of prepaid cards, and bank card acquisition. Current innovations are reflected in NFC payment, sonic payment, scan code payment, cloud payment, etc.
The current status of the industry can be roughly summarized with three "three pillars". The business structure is a tripartite trend of offline acquiring, Internet payment, and mobile payment. There are also three parts to the mobile payment structure. Personal transfer and repayment applications, mobile finance, and mobile consumption are three pillars. The offline acquiring structure is a tripartite state of banks, UnionPay, and third-party payment companies. The above is the latest frontier and current status of the development of third-party payment and financial technology.
Thank you everyone!