Last year, "The profit of listed companies in one year is not as good as the price increase of real estate in one year", "The owner of a private enterprise sold his house ten years ago and started a business ten years later, and used the earned money to buy back his house" and so on. The news about the news is constantly breaking the news of major media accounts. Many people have a question in their minds: Is starting a business in China really inferior to real estate speculation?

Yesterday’s “6-square-meter pigeon house for 880,000 yuan was sold out in half a day” once again caught our attention. Even a 6-square-meter house can be sold for 880,000 yuan. How many brain cells does it take to start a business to make a profit of 880,000 yuan? How many stingy bosses do you have to deal with and how long do you have to deal with to earn this amount? Moreover, many investors who speculate in real estate are actually not rich, but brave enough to resell the house during the credit card repayment period and earn a profit on the price difference!

Seeing the real estate speculators sitting around waiting to receive money, more and more people want to join the army of real estate speculators, and many of this group of real estate speculators are targeting second-tier cities next to first-tier cities. The urban market has low barriers to entry and high growth rates. If you start now, you will definitely make money!

Although the growth rate in second-tier cities in the past two years is really exaggerated, such as Hangzhou and Xiamen, which went from unbundling and no purchase restrictions to restarting purchase restrictions, and Foshan, where prices increased by 10,000 in just one year, many people living in Those from Guangzhou and Foshan are so happy! But real estate speculation is actually a type of investment, and there will definitely be certain risks. Real estate speculation in second-tier cities is especially risky. Are you doing it?

The increase in housing prices in second-tier cities is mostly driven by external factors

Take Huizhou as an example. In the first two months, the increase ranked second and first respectively. However, in May and June, they fell directly out of the top 10, indicating that these cities were greatly affected by short-term speculation, and the increase in housing prices was mostly driven by external factors.

Among them, the four cities of Huizhou, Suzhou, Wuxi and Jiaxing are the most obvious. These cities are all located outside Shanghai and Shenzhen. The impact of purchase restrictions and the spillover of investment demand have led to a short-term rise in housing prices in these cities. Therefore, most of the reasons for the skyrocketing growth in these second-tier cities are driven by investors, rather than the rise due to the maturity of the city's transportation or supporting facilities. Housing prices inexplicably keep up with the first-tier cities, and nothing else can keep up with the first-tier cities. This increase will last for a long time ?

The skyrocketing housing prices driven by investment are unsustainable

Take Wuxi around Shanghai as an example. The month-on-month increases in Wuxi in April, May and June were 1.47, 4.06 and 1.34 respectively. While local demand is basically stable, the sharp fluctuations in growth rates can only mean that external factors have driven the city's rapid rise in housing prices. The rapid decline in growth in June shows that the room for housing price growth in these cities is far less than that in core cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen.

Once housing prices rise above a certain level, real estate speculators will not hesitate to choose a new city, as evidenced by the fact that Jiaxing replaced Wuxi on the list in June. The housing price increases in the three cities surrounding Shenzhen, Huizhou, Zhuhai, and Zhongshan, are also in line with this characteristic.

Although second-tier cities are leading the housing market overall, in a specific city, the room for rising housing prices is limited. If you continue to buy a house in a city where housing prices have skyrocketed, the investment space has been greatly reduced. Those who just need to buy a house should recognize this and not become a "takeover" for real estate speculators.

The trend of first-tier cities affects second-tier cities

First-tier cities have a huge attraction to the population. The net inflow of population is the fundamental factor that promotes the value of residential investment. Once the housing prices in first-tier cities turn around, the population will attract Small surrounding first-tier cities and most second-tier cities with relatively weak power will definitely be abandoned, because capital has a keen sense of smell, and the demand for safe havens will cause capital to flow back to first-tier cities where housing prices are relatively strong, and some capital will even withdraw from the property market. Housing demand alone cannot support the current high housing prices, as the housing price-to-income ratio can already illustrate.

(The above answer was published on 2016-09-27, please refer to the actual current relevant house purchase policies)

Sohu Focus Network provides you with real estate information, real estate details, house purchase Comprehensive information on processes, owner forums, home decoration, etc.