Simply put, the reason is that the underlying causes and impact of the subprime mortgage crisis are analyzed as follows:
Analysis of the causes and impact of the financial crisis
In 2007, the Federal Reserve continued to After several interest rate hikes, the real estate market cooled down, rating agencies lowered the ratings of subprime mortgage derivatives, investment banks sold off subprime mortgages, and the subprime mortgage crisis began to erupt. Especially in September this year, the collapse of three major US investment banks and the rapid deterioration of the capital structure of insurance and other financial institutions triggered a comprehensive financial crisis.
1. The main reasons for the outbreak of the financial crisis: First, long-term low interest rates have created hidden dangers. In response
to the economic downturn caused by the bursting of the technology stock bubble, the Federal Reserve continuously cut interest rates from 2001 to 2003, as low as
to 1. Long-term low interest rates have triggered a surge in real estate prices, and subprime mortgage derivatives have developed rapidly. Second, the lack of supervision leads to the spread of risks. Financial institutions represented by investment banks cover up the risks in various derivative financial products through complicated spin-offs and packages, which not only expands the demand for non-performing loans, but also passes on non-performing loans to more people. investors. The third is high-leverage transactions
amplifying subprime mortgages. In fact, U.S. subprime mortgages only account for 14.1% of the entire U.S. real estate loans, about 1.1 trillion to 1.2 trillion yuan. Such a scale of subprime mortgages is not enough to cause a financial crisis that affects the overall situation.
This is mainly due to leverage transactions in the process of asset securitization, which has caused the scale of subprime mortgages to multiply step by step.
2. The fundamental factor in the outbreak of the financial crisis: the unsustainability of the world economic supply and demand model
Today’s world economic structure is the excessive consumption of the United States and the oversupply of developing countries.
Fees are a powerful engine of global economic development. Since U.S. residents’ savings are negative, consumption is mainly supported by the appreciation of financial assets and real estate. This means that U.S. financial and real estate bubbles will continue to blow up. Support overconsumption. But bubbles always have limits, which also determines the inherent inevitability of the outbreak of a financial crisis.
3. The financial crisis will have a huge impact on the world economy and will last for a long time.
It is expected to last until at least 2010
With Compared with history, especially the financial crisis of 1929, the response to this financial crisis faces the following favorable aspects: First, central banks of various countries have joined forces to cut interest rates and injected a large amount of liquidity into the market. Second, commercial banks are sound. The most serious damage caused by the financial crisis to the real economy was accomplished by destroying the payment system. However, so far, there have been no major problems with commercial banks in the United States. Third, government intervention in the economy has become common knowledge, and control methods have been further enriched. Fourth, the world adopts a cooperative attitude and does not trigger trade protectionism. But we must also note that this crisis occurred at the heart of the global financial system, and today
the United States’ economic size, credit market, futures market, scale of various derivatives, high money multiplier and financial
Financial leverage and the degree of integration of the global economy far exceed any crisis in history. If not handled properly
the world economy will enter a mid- to long-term recession. . From a deeper perspective, the impact of the financial crisis on the economy is mainly reflected in the adjustment of the supply and demand model of the world economy. At present, there are no signs of the emergence of the new economy. The conditions for blowing up another huge bubble are not yet met. U.S. consumption lacks support, and there is no doubt that it will slow down. Since it is difficult for developing countries to significantly increase domestic demand in the short term to make up for the reduced consumption in the United States, this adjustment will definitely last for a long time. The impact of the financial crisis on the world economy is expected to last until at least 2010.
At present, this crisis has had a greater impact on our country's economy, but considering that our country's
savings rate is very high, it can stimulate demand during an economic downturn. There is a lot of room for maneuver, and the decline in external demand will not cause a fundamental blow. However, it must be noted that if the financial crisis further intensifies the damage to the world's real economy, our country's economy will also be severely impacted. In the context of the economic slowdown at home and abroad caused by the financial crisis, although our province's economy has low dependence on foreign trade, the impact on the economy is inevitable. In particular, the current sharp decline in international commodity prices is bound to have a greater impact on our province, which mainly relies on resource industries. At present, our province must accelerate the adjustment and upgrading of traditional industries and consolidate its development advantages;
Vigorously develop new high-tech industries such as biology, energy conservation and environmental protection, public security, creativity and electronic information,
Cultivate new growth points and enhance the support for economic development.
Reference: Analysis of the causes and impact of the world financial crisis
Answer: shijiezeyu - Level 1 2010-3-1 13:17
Financial crisis, It refers to the sharp, short-term and excessive changes in all or most of the financial indicators (such as short-term interest rates, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land (prices), number of commercial bankruptcies and number of financial institution failures) in a country or several countries and regions. Deterioration of the cycle
1. This financial crisis originated in the United States. The causes of the financial crisis: credit expansion and the bursting of economic bubbles caused by the virtual economy are the main causes of the financial crisis. The subprime mortgage crisis is the fuse. The actual subprime mortgage There are only 600 billion US dollars in bonds, which triggered such a big financial crisis. It was all caused by following the trend, that is, people's psychological expectations. The herd effect refers to the existence of investors in the market who have not formed their own expectations or have not obtained first-hand information. , they will change their behavior based on the behavior of other investors. Theoretically, the herding effect will increase market volatility and become the key to the success of the leader's behavior. In the following cases, sesame cakes are the leader. In the real economy, subprime mortgages are the leader
2. From the subprime mortgage crisis to the financial crisis, here is an original case: Two people sell sesame cakes, each for a day Sell ??20 pieces (because the entire demand for sesame cakes is only 40 pieces), the price is one yuan each, and the daily output value is 40 yuan. Later, the two people discussed and bought and sold 100 pieces to each other (A bought 100 pieces from B, and B bought 100 pieces from A). Account form, the price remains unchanged, and the transaction volume becomes 240 yuan per day - the virtual economy is produced
If the price of mutual buying and selling of sesame cakes is 5 yuan, then the transaction volume is 1,040 yuan per day. At this time, A and B raised the price of sesame biscuits in the market to 2 yuan. Some people heard that sesame biscuits were sold for 5 yuan each. When they saw that the sesame biscuits in the market were only 2 yuan, they bought them quickly.--Bubble economy emerged
Making sesame biscuits all at once If they don't come out, they buy forward biscuits. On the one hand, A and B increase the production of sesame biscuits (up to 100 or more every day), on the other hand, they sell forward sesame biscuits, and also engage in the transaction of issuing sesame biscuits bonds. The buyers first use Cash purchase, and mortgage loan purchase. --- Financing, financial intervention
Some people want to buy, but have neither cash nor collateral, so A and B issue subprime sesame seed bonds and provide them to insurance Institutions purchased insurance.---Subprime bonds sowed the seeds for the subprime mortgage crisis
One day, I found that I couldn’t eat the sesame cakes I purchased. They needed space to store them and were moldy, so I hurried Sell ??it, even if the price is lower.--The bubble burst
The financial crisis broke out. The shaobing shop laid off employees (just 40 shaobings a day is enough)--unemployed; the shaobing bonds became useless paper --Subprime mortgage crisis
Mortgage loans (the collateral is worthless) cannot be recovered, lending banks have liquidity crises, and insurance companies face bankruptcy.
--Financial crisis
3. In the process from the subprime mortgage crisis to the financial crisis, the financial leverage of financial institutions and the issuance and circulation of financial derivatives played a magnifying role
4. Go deeper Level
(1) The negative consequences caused by the long-term accumulation of advanced consumption. In the United States, excessive consumption has long been prevalent, encouraging people to buy houses, cars, and high-end consumer goods. In pursuit of high profits, banks have issued credit cards of one kind or another to residents to encourage excessive consumption. “Use tomorrow’s money for today’s enjoyment.” "Let your dreams come early and make them come true. "Being able to earn money and spend money is the pride of the times." To put it into words, this kind of advanced consumption has also brought temporary prosperity in several years. But this kind of advance of future purchasing power After all, the behavior is "eat what you eat", and there are bubbles. The temporary prosperity is illusory. Once the economy is in recession, a large number of unemployed people will not be able to pay their debts, and consumers' ability to pay will drop sharply, and US subprime debt will become prominent. In front of the world, banks have piles of bad debts, and some investment banks are facing bankruptcy.
(2) American banks are burdened by high salaries. The American banking industry has been pampered for a long time and seems to be the "proud one of heaven." Senior leaders are all highly paid, with annual salaries in the millions of dollars. The annual salary of middle-level white-collar workers can also reach hundreds of thousands of dollars. The banking industry has long been very profitable due to the huge amount of loans, even though it is paid year after year. The salary is high, but it is still affordable. Once the debtors are unable to pay their debts, there will be a large number of bad debts, resulting in a triangle of debt. The bank will suffer from a large number of layoffs. If you think carefully, the high salary is too much to enjoy the economy. The results contain elements of exploitation. In other words, it is a foolish move to "take advantage of the situation" and "kill the chicken to get the eggs."
(3) The United States currently lacks emerging industries. Industries leading the world. Such as highways, automobile industry, aviation industry, electronic communications industry. For example, computer hardware and software, and mobile phones were once far ahead. While many countries were still in their infancy, the United States has formed industries in a large area. In recent years, these leading industries in the United States have been in a state of limbo, while many countries in the world are rapidly catching up. Electronic industries such as computers and mobile phones have developed rapidly, and the United States' advantages have been relatively weakened, or are gradually losing their advantages.
"Three feet of ice does not last in a day." The financial crisis in the United States has been going on for a long time, and it has inspired people to learn from it. A good strategy to influence our country.
5. The financial crisis has affected the world. For China, part of the country’s foreign exchange reserves have been lost, exports have become difficult, economic growth has slowed, unemployment has increased, people’s income has dropped, consumption has decreased, and the market has been depressed. .When serious, it will cause political instability. Compared with European countries (such as the Detroit Motor City in the United States, which is already very depressed), the impact of this financial crisis on China is not great, because China's economy is somewhat separated from the international economy. , my country's RMB has implemented strict management under the capital account, and the impact of international hot money has not been great. Now that more than 70 banks in the United States are closing, China's financial system is operating well and the economy has maintained a certain growth rate. At the same time, the country has also maintained a certain pace. After fiscal expansion and lowering the deposit reserve ratio, measures such as 4000 billion to stimulate domestic demand, and now the RMB exchange rate has been lowered, if various macroeconomic measures are effectively implemented, China will be able to improve in about a year.
Affected by the international financial crisis, the growth rate of my country's home appliance industry has slowed down significantly. In the first three quarters of this year, the cumulative output value growth rate of my country's home appliance industry dropped by more than 10% year-on-year, and the sales revenue growth rate dropped by 15% year-on-year.
Faced with the severe situation, domestic home appliance companies are actively expanding the market and turning "crisis" into "opportunities". Many advantaged brand companies have bucked the trend and achieved good growth, such as Haier, Galanz, Midea, Joyoung, etc., all of which have achieved expected sales targets.
Strive to expand market share
Affected by various factors such as rising raw material prices and the rise in the RMB exchange rate, the home appliance industry began to show signs of a cold winter in the second half of 2007.
"Raw material prices have fallen sharply, the RMB exchange rate has remained stable for four consecutive months, and labor shortages are also easing." Lu Renbo, deputy secretary-general of the China Electronics Chamber of Commerce, believes that the reduction in home appliance production costs has paved the way for price cuts for domestic home appliances.
Color TVs have always been a pioneer in price reductions for home appliances. In this round of price adjustments, domestic color TV brands have without exception lowered the prices of their entire range of products. The average decline in domestically produced LCD TVs above 32 inches has been All are over a thousand yuan. The price reduction of washing machines has reached the highest level in history, with an average reduction of 20% to 30%. In the air-conditioning market, Changhong, Hisense, etc. have successfully entered the compressor field, which has improved the competitiveness of domestic brands. The prices of some Changhong level 2 energy-efficiency air conditioners are already comparable to those of other brands of level 4 and 5 energy-efficiency air conditioners. Galanz has also lowered the price of its level 2 energy-efficiency air conditioners by nearly 30%.
The price reduction of home appliances driven by the relief of cost pressure has enabled local brands to rapidly increase their market share. In the flat-panel TV market, local brands have occupied the mainstream of the market, not only maintaining their advantages in the secondary and tertiary markets, but also accounting for about 50% of the primary market. In the first half of this year, among the top 10 washing machine sales brands, the comparison between domestic brands and foreign brands maintained an expanding trend, with market share rising from 59.12% last year to 62.29% this year. In the air-conditioning market, the shipments of the three major brands Haier, Gree and Midea accounted for 66.89% of the industry's total shipments in 2008, a year-on-year increase of 17.65%.
Going to the countryside to leverage the rural market
The implementation of the “home appliances to the countryside” policy has provided new development opportunities for the home appliance industry. Statistics show that the pilot program of "Home Appliances to the Rural Areas" in Shandong, Henan, and Sichuan provinces has driven a sales growth of more than 4 billion yuan in rural home appliances. The sales growth rate of pilot products is more than 30% higher than the national average.
In November 2008, a new round of "Home Appliances to the Rural Areas" was launched. The beneficiary areas were further expanded, covering 392 million rural residents. Products going to the countryside have also expanded to include color TVs, refrigerators, washing machines, mobile phones and other categories.
Huo Dufang, chairman of the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, predicts that the expanded "Home Appliances to the Rural Areas" project will drive an annual rural household equipment and service market demand of 46.524 billion yuan, "which will undoubtedly bring about a turnaround for home appliance companies." New opportunities.”
Domestic home appliance companies actively responded to the bid and achieved fruitful results. Judging from the winning bids, almost all leading companies in the industry were successfully selected. Haier won all bids in the fields of refrigerators, color TVs, washing machines and mobile phones, with 10, 15, 15 and 10 winning models respectively; Konka won the bid for 14 color TVs, 11 refrigerators, 11 mobile phones and 10 freezers. ;Hisense Group won the bid for 75 products including TVs, refrigerators, and mobile phones; 77 refrigerators, freezers, and washing machines from the 4 brands of Midea, Little Swan, Royalstar, and Cher under the "Midea Department" also won the bid series.
Adjustment and development of emerging markets
"The decline of the European and American markets is a foregone conclusion, while demand in emerging markets is still growing rapidly." said Yu Yaochang, executive vice president of Galanz Group. It is understood that Galanz's microwave oven sales reached 25 million units in 2007, with exports accounting for 70%. As of now, Galanz's exports to the United States have only increased by 18%, while in other markets they have increased by 50%.
On November 17, 2008, in order to encourage home appliance companies to export, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly announced that the tax rebate rate for home appliances would be increased from 13% to 14%. The increase in tax rebate rates has boosted corporate confidence to a certain extent. As export orders for home appliances continue to decrease next year, companies have adjusted their export strategies, strengthened internal management, and used emerging markets as growth points.
According to Kuang Yubin, Overseas Vice President of Skyworth Group, even against the backdrop of declining color TV exports, Skyworth expects export volume to still grow by 80% to 90% this year. Skyworth's success is due to the adjustment of its export strategy.
A year ago, Skyworth believed that it would not have a clear competitive advantage in the European and American markets in the short term, and instead focused on developing countries with relatively stable market capacity and large room for growth. This enabled Skyworth to avoid a decline in exports during the global financial crisis and maintain significant growth through major customers.
Every major change in the economic situation will bring about upgrading of the industry, adjustment or reshuffling of the industrial structure. The ability of Chinese enterprises to resist risks is stronger than that of foreign-funded enterprises. Driven by the continuous introduction of national macro-control measures, enterprises can turn challenges into opportunities if they can seize opportunities. Lu Renbo believes that as a highly competitive home appliance industry, it is fully capable of getting out of the current market predicament and ushering in better development opportunities.
Answer: chinasowell - Assistant Level 3 2008-12-14 18:56
Report Affected by the international financial crisis, the growth rate of my country's home appliance industry has slowed down significantly. In the first three quarters of this year, the cumulative output value growth rate of my country's home appliance industry dropped by more than 10% year-on-year, and the sales revenue growth rate dropped by 15% year-on-year.
Faced with the severe situation, domestic home appliance companies are actively expanding the market and turning "crisis" into "opportunities". Many advantaged brand companies have bucked the trend and achieved good growth, such as Haier, Galanz, Midea, Joyoung, etc., all of which have achieved expected sales targets.
Strive to expand market share
Affected by various factors such as rising raw material prices and the rise in the RMB exchange rate, the home appliance industry began to show signs of a cold winter in the second half of 2007. "Raw material prices have fallen sharply, the RMB exchange rate has remained stable for four consecutive months, and labor shortages are also easing." Lu Renbo, deputy secretary-general of the China Electronics Chamber of Commerce, believes that the reduction in home appliance production costs has paved the way for price cuts for domestic home appliances.
Color TVs have always been a pioneer in price reductions for home appliances. In this round of price adjustments, domestic color TV brands have without exception reduced the prices of their entire range of products. The average decline in domestically produced LCD TVs above 32 inches has been All are over a thousand yuan. The price reduction of washing machines has reached the highest level in history, with an average reduction of 20% to 30%. In the air-conditioning market, Changhong, Hisense, etc. have successfully entered the compressor field, which has improved the competitiveness of domestic brands. The prices of some Changhong level 2 energy-efficiency air conditioners are already comparable to those of other brands of level 4 and 5 energy-efficiency air conditioners. Galanz has also lowered the price of its level 2 energy-efficiency air conditioners by nearly 30%.
The price reduction of home appliances driven by the relief of cost pressure has enabled local brands to rapidly increase their market share. In the flat-panel TV market, local brands have occupied the mainstream of the market, not only maintaining their advantages in the secondary and tertiary markets, but also accounting for about 50% of the primary market. In the first half of this year, among the top 10 washing machine sales brands, the comparison between domestic brands and foreign brands maintained an expanding trend, with market share rising from 59.12% last year to 62.29% this year. In the air-conditioning market, the shipments of the three major brands Haier, Gree and Midea accounted for 66.89% of the industry's total shipments in 2008, a year-on-year increase of 17.65%.
Going to the countryside to leverage the rural market
The implementation of the "home appliances to the countryside" policy has provided new development opportunities for the home appliance industry. Statistics show that the pilot program of "Home Appliances to the Rural Areas" in Shandong, Henan, and Sichuan provinces has driven a sales growth of more than 4 billion yuan in rural home appliances. The sales growth rate of pilot products is more than 30% higher than the national average.
In November 2008, a new round of "Home Appliances to the Rural Areas" was launched. The beneficiary areas were further expanded, covering 392 million rural residents. Products going to the countryside have also expanded to include color TVs, refrigerators, washing machines, mobile phones and other categories.
Huo Dufang, chairman of the China Household Electrical Appliances Association, predicts that the expanded "Home Appliances to the Rural Areas" project will drive an annual rural market demand of 46.524 billion yuan for home equipment and services, "which will undoubtedly bring about a turnaround for home appliance companies." New opportunities. ”
Domestic home appliance companies actively responded to the bid and achieved fruitful results. Judging from the winning bids, almost all leading companies in the industry were successfully selected.
Haier won all bids in the fields of refrigerators, color TVs, washing machines and mobile phones, with 10, 15, 15 and 10 winning models respectively; Konka won the bid for 14 color TVs, 11 refrigerators, 11 mobile phones and 10 freezers. ;Hisense Group won the bid for 75 products including TVs, refrigerators, and mobile phones; 77 refrigerators, freezers, and washing machines from the 4 brands of Midea, Little Swan, Royalstar, and Cher under the "Midea Department" also won the bid series.
Adjustment and development of emerging markets
“The decline of the European and American markets is a foregone conclusion, while demand in emerging markets is still growing rapidly.” said Yu Yaochang, executive vice president of Galanz Group. It is understood that Galanz's microwave oven sales reached 25 million units in 2007, with exports accounting for 70%. As of now, Galanz's exports to the United States have only increased by 18%, while in other markets they have increased by 50%.
On November 17, 2008, in order to encourage home appliance companies to export, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation jointly announced that the tax rebate rate for home appliances would be increased from 13% to 14%. The increase in tax rebate rates has boosted corporate confidence to a certain extent. As export orders for home appliances continue to decrease next year, companies have adjusted their export strategies, strengthened internal management, and used emerging markets as growth points.
According to Kuang Yubin, Overseas Vice President of Skyworth Group, even against the background of declining color TV exports, Skyworth expects export volume to still grow by 80% to 90% this year. Skyworth's success is due to the adjustment of its export strategy. A year ago, Skyworth believed that it would not have a clear competitive advantage in the European and American markets in the short term, and instead focused on developing countries with relatively stable market capacity and large room for growth. This enabled Skyworth to avoid a decline in exports during the global financial crisis and maintain significant growth through major customers.
Every major change in the economic situation will bring about industry upgrading, adjustment or reshuffling of the industrial structure. The ability of Chinese enterprises to resist risks is stronger than that of foreign-funded enterprises. Driven by the continuous introduction of national macro-control measures, enterprises can turn challenges into opportunities if they can seize opportunities. Lu Renbo believes that as a highly competitive home appliance industry, it is fully capable of getting out of the current market predicament and ushering in better development opportunities