1. Exchange rate risks faced by foreign exchange capital of commercial banks. At present, the sources of foreign exchange funds of domestic commercial banks can be mainly divided into three categories: first, foreign exchange funds raised through public offering and listing in overseas stock markets; Second, foreign exchange capital formed by overseas strategic investors subscribing for a part of equity; The third is the foreign exchange capital formed by the state through the injection of foreign exchange reserves. Affected by the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate, the amount of foreign exchange capital converted into RMB capital of banks will also change. If the RMB appreciates sharply, the total capital of commercial banks may shrink sharply, which will undoubtedly have an adverse impact on the capital adequacy ratio and operating performance of commercial banks.
2. Exchange rate risk exposure of assets and liabilities. When the international exchange rate changes, whether the position matching and currency matching of banks' foreign exchange assets are reasonable will directly affect the ability of commercial banks to resist risks. With the continuous development of China's open economy, enterprises' demand for foreign exchange funds is rising. Compared with the rapidly growing demand for foreign exchange funds, the sources of foreign exchange funds of commercial banks have not increased significantly. In recent two years, the loan-to-deposit ratio of foreign currency business in the domestic banking system has reached more than 90%, reflecting that the supply of foreign exchange funds in banks is quite tight. In this case, in order to ensure the needs of foreign exchange credit business, a number of banks apply to the competent authorities to purchase foreign exchange with RMB funds and issue foreign exchange loans to customers. Although this solves the problem of the source of foreign exchange funds, it also causes the currency mismatch between the bank's foreign exchange assets and RMB liabilities. The appreciation of RMB will inevitably bring exchange rate losses to commercial banks.
3. Exchange rate risk of intermediary business such as settlement and sale of foreign exchange. Due to the increasing frequency and range of RMB exchange rate fluctuations, the exchange rate problems of intermediary businesses such as settlement and sale of foreign exchange by commercial banks have gradually emerged. According to the new exchange rate formation mechanism, the daily fluctuation range of RMB against the US dollar is within three thousandths. At present, domestic banks' quotations of RMB against US dollars are generally determined according to the median price announced by the People's Bank of China the day before, and the net positions of foreign exchange settlement and sale of branches the day before are leveled in the market. If the market parity is lower than the customer's settlement price, the bank will bear the exchange rate loss. Influence of RMB exchange rate system reform on the business operation of China's commercial banks (I) Influence of RMB exchange rate system reform on the international settlement business of commercial banks. International settlement business is an important source of income for commercial banks in China. After the reform of RMB exchange rate system, the relative appreciation of RMB has a certain influence on the international settlement business of commercial banks in China, but it has little influence and even promoted the international settlement business of commercial banks. For industries involved in import and export, RMB appreciation is equivalent to raising export prices, reducing the competitiveness of exports, and reducing the cost pressure of rising prices of imported raw materials. The appreciation of RMB will encourage imports and restrain exports. However, due to the relatively small appreciation of RMB, the external competitiveness of China's export products is still high, and a small and moderate appreciation of RMB has little effect on restraining exports. Specifically, after the RMB exchange rate reform, the exchange rate gradually began to play a role in regulating the trade balance, mainly in August 2005, when the import growth jumped from the previous speed of 10% to more than 20%, and the gap with the export growth rate narrowed rapidly. Even in the last two months of 2005, the growth rate of imports exceeded that of exports. In February this year, the growth rate of imports was higher than that of exports, and then in March and April, the growth rate of exports still exceeded. Imports reached US$ 240.48 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%; The import and export surplus was $33.75 billion, up 6 1.4% year-on-year. (B) The impact of RMB exchange rate system reform on foreign exchange fund business of commercial banks is 65,438+0. Due to the slight appreciation of RMB, the expectation of appreciation is enhanced, and more foreign exchange funds may choose to settle foreign exchange, which will adversely affect the development of foreign exchange wealth management products and other foreign exchange derivative businesses of commercial banks. 2. We see that the awareness of exchange rate risk of import and export enterprises will be obviously improved, and we will take the initiative to take measures to avoid exchange rate risk. For example, foreign trade enterprises will more actively adopt forward settlement and sale of foreign exchange to meet their own needs, which creates a huge market space for commercial banks to expand their intermediary business income. The reform of China's exchange rate system will further promote the innovation of foreign exchange market. From the perspective of "innovation demand", with the frequent fluctuation of exchange rate, there will be more investment and hedging demand. From the perspective of "innovative supply", as a supporting measure for RMB appreciation, in May 2005, the inter-bank foreign exchange market launched the trading business between eight foreign currency pairs. In August, the scope of banks and funds that can engage in forward settlement and sale of foreign exchange was further expanded, and bank-enterprise swap business and inter-bank foreign exchange market forward and swap business were launched, enabling commercial banks to provide more and better risk management tools for customers with various needs. The increase of innovation demand and innovation supply will make the foreign exchange market more active and bring more opportunities for commercial banks to develop new foreign exchange fund business. (III) Impact of RMB exchange rate system reform on credit business of commercial banks After the exchange rate system reform, the RMB appreciated slightly, which changed the prosperity of some domestic industries and enterprises to a certain extent, thus correspondingly affecting the quality of credit assets of commercial banks in these industries. If the RMB appreciates further in the medium and long term, the scope of industries adversely affected will be further expanded and the impact will be more significant. For industries adversely affected by RMB appreciation, they may face a decline in profitability and solvency, which will increase the risk of banks lending to related industries and will inevitably prompt commercial banks to re-examine their related credit business. Generally speaking, there are relatively few industries that obviously benefit from RMB appreciation. For commercial banks, the proportion of credit provided to the above industries is relatively high, about 30%-45%. Therefore, the reform of exchange rate system will affect the credit business of commercial banks. (4) The impact of RMB exchange rate system reform on other aspects of commercial banks 1. The appreciation of RMB will slightly reduce the capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks. Generally speaking, because the weight of foreign exchange owners' equity in China's commercial banks is higher than that of foreign exchange risk assets in the total risk assets, the appreciation of RMB will make the reduction of commercial banks' capital converted into RMB greater than that of their risk assets converted into RMB, and the capital adequacy ratio of commercial banks will decrease slightly. 2. The appreciation of RMB has also affected the accounting statements of commercial banks. According to the Accounting System for Financial Enterprises, commercial banks should convert assets and liabilities in accounting statements according to the exchange rate at the end of the period. A small appreciation of RMB will reduce the absolute amount of assets converted into RMB by commercial banks, and at the same time, equity items will be converted at historical exchange rate, which will have a certain impact on the accounting statements of commercial banks. 3. The impact of RMB appreciation on the assets and liabilities of commercial banks. The appreciation of RMB directly affects the value changes of assets and liabilities denominated in US dollars. The bigger the dollar position a bank earns, the greater the negative impact it suffers. The appreciation of RMB will further aggravate the shortage of foreign exchange funds and the strong demand of commercial banks, and there will be some hidden dangers of foreign exchange liquidity in the medium and long term. The continued small appreciation of the renminbi has strengthened the public's expectation of further appreciation of the renminbi, and foreign exchange savings deposits may further decline.