Among them, the direct aspect is mainly reflected in the fact that most commodities are bulk raw material commodities that need to be imported in large quantities, such as soybeans, copper, natural rubber, etc., and they are highly dependent on imports. According to relevant statistics, in 2006/2007, soybean imports accounted for about13 of consumption, copper imports accounted for about13 of consumption, and natural rubber imports accounted for more than 2/3 of consumption. If the RMB continues to depreciate at this time, the decline of these commodities may stagnate or slow down. When the local currency is denominated in RMB, the depreciation of the local currency will raise the focus of domestic and international price comparison, thus supporting the domestic commodity market.
However, for varieties that are basically self-sufficient such as sugar and wheat, the internal and external linkage is not strong and will not be affected by this. Other raw materials that need to be imported in large quantities, such as crude oil and iron ore. Although there is no direct reference to the futures prices in domestic and foreign markets, under the expectation of RMB depreciation, the trend will tend to be similar to those commodities that rely heavily on exports, because under the expectation of RMB depreciation, the high price of domestic raw materials will directly affect the downstream finished products and eventually raise the inflation level. If the CPI index rises again, the macro-control achievements of the previous government will be in vain.
On the other hand, the indirect impact is that the depreciation of RMB will be beneficial to domestic export industries such as processing and manufacturing, activate the consumption demand of domestic goods, and also have a beneficial effect on commodity prices. Of course, at present, global commodities are still in a downward trend, and the CPI index of various countries has also begun to fall from the mid-year high, and some countries even have deflation concerns. Therefore, under the background that the "bear market" of commodities has not yet ended, the short-term moderate depreciation of RMB will not have much impact on inflation.
Although the devaluation of RMB will have a great impact on import and export trade, and then affect the futures prices of commodities, especially those that are highly dependent on imports, if the devaluation of RMB cannot offset the negative impact of weakening external demand in the short term, and with the crisis of confidence in the US dollar and the rise of trade protection in various countries, the global demand for commodities may further decline. In the long run, commodity prices are not optimistic, and the final trend should be determined according to the relationship between supply and demand. After all, this is the decisive factor of price.