The Southeast Asian financial crisis did not directly impact China's economy, but it had a great indirect impact.

There are two main reasons why China will not have a Southeast Asian-style financial crisis. First, China and Southeast Asian countries have different external economic factors and systems; China and Southeast Asian countries have different internal economic and financial systems.

From the first aspect, first of all, China has not opened its own financial market, so there is no problem of borrowing domestic currency for speculation, and there is no free exchange of foreign currency, so the channels of indirect capital flow are not smooth. China's huge foreign exchange reserves and strict management make speculators willing to choose other countries. If the speculation is successful, we need to wait for the opening of China's financial market. One of the benefits we have gained from the financial crisis in Southeast Asia is that we have sufficient reasons to delay the opening of financial markets and gain the understanding of other countries.

From the second point of view, we have bad debts like Southeast Asian countries, but our financial system determines that we will not have a financial crisis similar to that in Southeast Asia. 1995 After the promulgation of the Central Bank Law, the People's Bank of China played the role of the central bank. The four state-owned commercial banks are China Industrial and Commercial Bank, China Bank, China Agricultural Bank and China Construction Bank. The tool of China's monetary policy is the total loan scale, which is similar to the western control of money supply. The role of interest rates on major lenders is still limited. The official non-performing loans in China are 5-6%, which are mainly divided into three categories: overdue loans (loans overdue for less than two years), sluggish loans (loans overdue for more than two years) and non-performing loans (loans that cannot be repaid-bad debts). It is generally believed that the bad debt rate is around 25%. But the bad debts of these loans are mainly brought by state-owned enterprises. Some of them are policy-oriented, but there are also problems of poor management. Theoretically, enterprises and banks themselves have no personal responsibility because of institutional problems, so the reform of bad debts may be a problem. At present, China's public debt is relatively small, accounting for only 6% of GDP. So we still have room for manoeuvre. Therefore, there will be no Southeast Asian-style financial crisis in China.

The indirect influence of East Asian financial turmoil on China's economy.

First of all, from the perspective of trade, the financial crisis in Southeast Asian countries has led to a decline in their import demand. The main mechanism is: 1) Currency depreciation in East Asian countries increases import costs. According to statistics, since July 1997, the Thai baht has depreciated by 1 4.78%, the Malaysian ringgit by 76.53%, the Korean won by 96.95% and the Japanese yen by1.

Secondly, China is highly dependent on the markets of Southeast Asian countries. If Japan is not included, the dependence of 1995 is 10.3%, and Japan will reach 35-40%. The influence of the markets of these countries and regions on us can be equated to the fact that a country's exports of K goods account for a larger proportion of its total exports than the importing countries. In fact, it shows that the import and export of the two countries are interrelated. According to the data of 1994, the statistical results are as follows: China and Hongkong 0.89, Indonesia 0.57, Japan 0.76, Korea 0.64, Malaysia 0.54, Philippines 0.54, Singapore 0.58 and Thailand 0.60.

Third, because Southeast Asian countries have spent a lot of foreign exchange in intervening in the foreign exchange market, it is difficult for these countries to promote trade liberalization, so it may be reasonable to protect trade or increase import restrictions; Accordingly, China's exports are naturally affected. This influence is not only manifested in the East Asian market, but also affects other markets. The similarity of export products between China and Southeast Asian countries will also have an impact on the growth of China's exports. Related to this, due to the influence of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, countries and even the whole world have successively lowered their economic growth rates, which means that the export markets of products in Southeast Asia and China have shrunk to varying degrees. The impact of the East Asian financial turmoil on China's foreign investment (joint venture, sole proprietorship and cooperation) is obvious. First of all, in China's foreign trade, the import and export of foreign-funded enterprises accounted for 46.9% in 1997. About 80% of foreign-funded enterprises come from East Asian countries. These enterprises, like those in China, are facing export difficulties. At the same time, they still lack the difficulty of increasing investment and expanding scale, or even maintaining the existing scale. If the capital turnover of the whole enterprise is not good, it will also lead to divestment.

Fourthly, the East Asian financial turmoil has increased the difficulty of China's export financing, especially for foreign-funded enterprises. Affected countries are reluctant to provide loans to commercial institutions to meet the requirements of the International Monetary Fund. Tight loans and higher interest rates increase the export cost or make it difficult to export;

Fifth, the Southeast Asian financial crisis threatened China's export profits. As the export prices of Southeast Asian countries have fallen, importers have also asked us to lower commodity prices. In order to maintain our market share (our profit margin is already very low under the fierce competition market conditions), we have to reduce the price; Some goods with low profits will lose the existing market. Overall, the growth rate of China's foreign trade will be lower than last year. The total growth rate of imports and exports is about 8-9% (1997 is 12. 1%), the growth rate of imports is about 5-7%, and the growth rate of exports is about 1 1%.

The second aspect of the impact of the Southeast Asian financial crisis is the introduction of foreign capital. In the past 20 years, because most of us came from East Asian countries, their financial crisis or turmoil inevitably led to a decrease in investment. As we have explained, direct investment from East Asia accounts for about 80% of all our foreign investment. Therefore, investment in this area may be reduced. But we should also see that Southeast Asia is our main competitor to attract foreign investment from Europe and America. The financial crisis in Southeast Asia and the deterioration of its economic and political situation will help us to attract more foreign investment from Europe and the United States, which China has been hoping for since the implementation of the foreign investment policy. It is difficult to determine how the two cancel each other out.

Third, the impact of the East Asian financial crisis on China's macro-economy. First of all, the contribution of China's foreign trade to China's economic growth is zero. 2( 1995, Tong Jiadong) or for every 10% of China's economic growth, the contribution of foreign trade accounts for 2 percentage points. Therefore, to a large extent, the contribution of China's import and export is higher; Secondly, introduce foreign capital. If there is a problem in introducing foreign capital, the employment problem will be more acute.

Facing the adverse impact of the Southeast Asian financial crisis on China's economy, China considered and gradually adopted a series of countermeasures. Mainly:

1) Promote trade development through export tax rebate for bulk products. Since 1985, China has implemented the export tax rebate policy. As a neutral foreign trade policy, it has reached the similarity with other countries in the world. However, due to regulatory problems, there have been problems such as less levy and more refund, and the scale of tax refund is beyond the financial capacity. Therefore, the State Council decided to declare 3% (including coal and agricultural products), 6% (processed products mainly based on agricultural products) and 9% (other goods) for export goods after 1996 1. Faced with the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, China decided to increase the textile export tax rebate rate by two percentage points on June 5438+099865438+ 10/0. This means that the export tax rebate rate is increased from 9% to 1 1%. As we know, textile exports account for 25% of China's total exports, and 1997 is $46 billion. At the same time, textiles are the main trade surplus industrial sector and the main employment sector in China. From 65438 to 0997, 75% of China's trade surplus came from textiles. It reached 33 billion, with a total surplus of 4 billion. At the same time, the textile industry is equivalent to an increase of 3 billion yuan. Recently, China's exports to Japan dropped by 2.5% in the first quarter due to the great impact of the financial crisis in China. 5%, exports to ASEAN decreased by 7.8%, and exports to South Korea decreased by 24.5%). Therefore, both the practical departments and the theoretical circles suggest the full refund of VAT.

2) Adjust the product export structure and market structure, and turn your eyes to Europe, America, Latin America and Africa;

3) Adjust the policy of introducing foreign capital, and restore the tax reduction and exemption treatment for the means of production or capital goods of foreign-funded enterprises; In terms of domestic taxation, in order to encourage foreign-funded enterprises to invest in high-tech industries, experts suggest that the development of high-tech industries should be stimulated by expanding tax incentives for high-tech industries and promoting the rapid upgrading of China's industrial structure;

4) Low interest rate policy. Since last year, China has adjusted interest rates many times. On the one hand, it can reduce the operating costs of foreign trade enterprises, on the other hand, it can stimulate internal product demand and expand domestic demand.

5) Take advantage of our good performance in the Southeast Asian financial crisis and strive to join the World Trade Organization as soon as possible, so as to obtain stable international trade conditions. Effect of current policy adjustment: According to statistics of Shanghai Customs, in the first four months of 1998, its import and export increased by 12.4% year-on-year, of which imports increased by 9.7% and exports increased by 14.5%. Among them, textile exports only increased by 3. 1%, but mechanical and electrical products increased by 2.51%(US$ 3.4 billion). Imports from Asian countries increased by 8.9%, imports from Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand in Southeast Asia increased rapidly, and imports from Japan and South Korea increased slowly. It can be seen that the impact of the Southeast Asian financial crisis on China is gradually emerging. In terms of investment, it increased by 0.07% in the first four months, reaching1172 million USD, and 5,704 joint ventures were approved, down 6.84% from the same period last year. Among them, the funds from Indonesia, South Korea, Japan and Thailand decreased by 89. 16%, 55.83% and 42.23% respectively. Investment from Europe and the United States has also declined. In terms of China's economic growth, it is estimated that the growth rate in the first three months will be 7.2%. Domestic demand (retail sales) increased by 6.6%, only half that of last year. The retail price index was 2. 1%, and the consumer price index only rose by 0.03%.

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