Part? 1? High end competition
Let me first pull out the interesting places in the September data, mainly focusing on two parts: 250,000-350,000 yuan and more than 350,000 yuan. As shown below, I think there are still several basic features. The situation of high-end and C-end in the first half of 2020 is mainly based on the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier and new first-tier cities, and the income of wealthy families has not been greatly affected in this round. In fact, some A00 vehicles were deleted. The effect of opening stores in first-tier and new first-tier cities this year is immediate, which is also the fundamental reason why new cars are concentrated in these cities at present.
Figure 1? In August, the top cities accounted for 30%.
1) 250,000-350,000 yuan car model
September? The main product is the long mileage version. After the subsequent model with a price of 249,900 yuan is put into LFP, it will do great harm to other models with similar pricing. Among them, the output of Tucki P7 rear-drive version is 28,965,438+0, that of Korean EV front-drive version is 3,863, and that of four-wheel drive model is 882. Because it is too close, this kind of price play is really stressful for nearby models.
Figure 2? September 250,000-350,000 yuan range models
2) Vehicles with a price of more than 350,000 yuan.
Tesla produced a large number of long-distance versions in September. Weilai is currently happily dealing with its own service system, energy supply system (electricity exchange)+100kWh replaceable futures, ES6? 3268，ES8？ 1623 sets, the gameplay in this interval is actually not greatly affected by Tesla's price reduction. The real challenge is the follow-up model? Y-model? Y will have a direct impact when it starts to increase its volume around 202 1.
Figure 3? September 350,000 yuan or more interval models
This downward pressure on prices not only acts on vehicles in the same price range, but also acts below the range of15-200,000 and 200-250,000, and the overall output this year is not particularly easy (reaching expectations). In other words, we can foresee the subsequent Tesla models of 202 1? 3 and model? The starting price of y will go further down. If other car companies want to match, they can't just rely on the basic parameters of the three power companies, but need to make a fuss about the corresponding functions and selling points. The squeezing situation all the way down is very uncomfortable.
Remarks: The marks of these two price segments should be the prices before subsidies. After specific subsidies, these two paragraphs will actually go down, which should be12-180,000 yuan and18-220,000 yuan.
Figure 4? Models of these two departments will be available in September.
Part? 2? Comparison of output and license data
An obvious feature of the domestic new energy market this year is that the output of new energy passenger cars is synchronized with the data on the brand. For example, in August, the number of new energy passenger cars in China was 92,000, 3,400 fewer than the overall output in August. It is estimated that the output in September will be around 65,438+065,438+0-65,438+0.2 million, which is also firmly following the authorized data. From June 5438 to August 2020, the cumulative number of new energy vehicles was 45 1 10,000. The main change this year is that the B-end market accounted for a large proportion last year. Last month, for example, the leasing/leasing market accounted for 18.5%, individual users accounted for 67.9%, and companies and other users accounted for 13.
Figure 5? Track the license and output from June 5 to April 38 this year.
Judging from the situation of new car-making forces and Tesla models, both private high-end cars are in good condition, while the B-end models (20 17-20 19), which were previously slippery in China, have declined a lot.
Figure 6? Output of major new car-making enterprises in September 2020
If you compare the private end of1-August with the previous model, it will be clear.
Figure 7? Vehicles licensed in private from June 5, 20438 to August 2020.
Figure 8? In 20201-August, both private and B-end models can be ranked.
Of course, with the improvement of the economy, the demand for B-side taxis and online car rentals will always be gradually released. Policy orientation will enable this branch to be released for a period of time in 2020-following the economic recovery, but in the long run, it may indeed be in a subordinate position.
Figure 9? The market demand of private end and B end is compared with last year (observation report of China power battery industry in August)
Summary: In fact, if we compare the data carefully, we will find that September is a turning point. On the one hand, the A00 level continues to be heavy, on the other hand, the demand at the B-end is picking up, which makes us see a relatively "violent" year-on-year growth. But for the forward-looking situation, the long-term survival of differentiated capital is the most important thing-so many enterprises have to be bigger and stronger in order to do new energy, and it is impossible for everyone to be satisfied.
Figure | Network and related screenshots
Author's brief introduction: Zhu Yulong, senior engineer of three electric systems and automotive electronics for electric vehicles, is the author of Hardware Design of Automotive Electronics.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.