"All countries can't stay out of it"
As soon as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, the United States and the European Union immediately announced the implementation of "devastating sanctions" against Russia: financial institutions were excluded by SWIFT, the foreign exchange reserves of the central bank were frozen, the most-favored-nation trade status was cancelled, the import and export of certain commodities were restricted, and the overseas property of relevant individuals was controlled ... Western countries adopted more than 5,000 sanctions, which were unprecedented in breadth, depth and intensity, directly leading to a sharp drop in the exchange rate of the Russian ruble, a sharp drop in asset prices and a sharp drop in credit rating. Russia has taken tough anti-sanctions measures without weakness.
"In a sense, the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and the resulting sanctions and anti-sanctions may have opened Pandora's Box." Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out that Russia and Ukraine will definitely be the biggest victims of the economic and financial shocks and stagflation effects of this conflict, followed by the European Union, which relies heavily on Russian natural gas, and then affect other countries. "In today's economic globalization, all countries can't stay out of it."
The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the sanctions and counter-sanctions triggered by it on the global economy and international trade is first reflected in energy and other commodities. At present, the United States, Britain and the European Union have all begun to ban or reduce the import of Russian oil, natural gas and coal, but Russia is the world's largest natural gas exporter and the second largest oil exporter, with exports of pipeline natural gas, liquefied natural gas and crude oil accounting for 26%, 8% and 12% respectively. Since the outbreak of the conflict, the international energy market has been in great turmoil, and the prices of crude oil and natural gas have soared, which has a great impact on the economies of countries that rely on energy imports. In particular, the EU's dependence on Russian oil and gas is 30% and 39% respectively, while that of Germany is as high as 35% and 55%.
Bai Ming believes that the structural problems of the crude oil crisis cannot be changed by increasing the energy output of other energy suppliers in the short term. The existing world oil and gas supply chain has been greatly disrupted and interrupted, which will have a sustained negative impact on the world energy pattern and economic growth.
In the international grain market, the price of grain continues to soar. Liang, a senior economist at UNCTAD, believes that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will increase the possibility of a world food crisis, and many low-income countries will bear the brunt. It is reported that Russia and Ukraine are the world's first and fifth largest wheat exporters, respectively, accounting for nearly 30% of global wheat exports and about 20% of global corn exports. The escalation of the conflict has blocked supply and transportation, and countries in the Middle East and North Africa that import a large amount of food from Russia and Ukraine have been greatly affected. In addition, Russia and Belarus are both big exporters of chemical fertilizers, and the indirect impact of export restrictions in this area on global food supply should not be underestimated.
Liang said that the current impact on Russian-Ukrainian food exports may only be a prelude to the tight global food supply. As rising energy prices will increase the cost of food production, thus affecting the storage of agricultural harvest this year, the threat of food crisis will continue until the end of this year and early next year.
In addition, the global output and export of industrial metals such as palladium, titanium, aluminum and nickel, as well as the inert gas neon necessary for semiconductor production process, all occupy an extremely important position. Since the outbreak of the conflict, the price of industrial metals has soared in the international market, and the related index has soared. According to Moody's report, if the Russian-Ukrainian crisis continues, it will seriously threaten the world semiconductor industry. At the same time, Russia is an important source of some key metals that the world aerospace industry depends on, and the aerospace industry of developed countries in Europe and America will be greatly affected.
Wang reminded that although Russia only accounts for 3% of the global economy and Ukraine seems to be more "insignificant", it is unrealistic to think that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will only have a slight and temporary economic and financial impact on the world economy. Historically, the Arab countries that imposed an oil embargo in 1973 and Iran that broke out in 1979 accounted for a smaller proportion of global GDP than Russia today, but they had a far-reaching impact on the trend of the world economy. From the historical experience, the chain reaction caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine should not be underestimated.
"Developed countries will have to bear the impact of big inflation in a short time because of decoupling from Russia, and the pace of developing countries to get rid of the epidemic and achieve economic recovery will slow down. Affected by the conflict situation and its chain effect, the world economic structure will change due to the occurrence stage, and its impact will be long-term. " Wang said to him.
American fishermen benefit?
He Weiwen said that in addition to geopolitical gains, the United States can also reap huge economic benefits from the contradiction between Russia and Europe. Previously, more than 40% of Europe's natural gas supply came from Russia. After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States will greatly increase its natural gas exports to Europe. The contradiction between Russia and Ukraine will also depress Russian-European trade and hit the EU's economic recovery. "This can only be what the United States needs, because the huge bilateral trade relationship is an obstacle for the EU to be tough on Russia." He Weiwen pointed out.
In the capital market, the contradiction between Russia and Europe strengthens the dollar status and attracts world capital to flow into the United States. "The geopolitical crisis that the United States participated in or dominated in the past 20 years has strengthened the status of the US dollar without exception. After the Ukrainian crisis, it is expected that the status of the US dollar will be doubled. First, it is more worth holding, and second, the United States has become a safe haven. " He Weiwen analyzed.
The Ukrainian crisis will also bring considerable profits to the military complex in the United States. As the war continues, NATO countries such as the United States and Germany have provided weapons to Ukraine. "More importantly, it makes European countries feel great anxiety about European security and greatly increases their dependence on NATO and even the United States. I am afraid it is imperative for NATO countries to increase their military spending one after another. This is a rare opportunity for the US military-industrial complex to sell weapons and related services to Europe. " He Weiwen said.
However, He Weiwen also stressed that under the background of world economic integration, although the United States will make a profit in the short term, it will also slide to stagflation growth and recession in the long term. Take energy as an example. Although only 8% of US oil and refined oil imports come from Russia, the US economy has been facing serious inflation since last year, and the soaring global energy prices will inevitably aggravate this trend. "If the conflict, sanctions and anti-sanctions between Russia and Ukraine continue for a long time, it will inevitably hurt Russia and the United States, the West and emerging markets." He Weiwen said.
How did China respond?
Lin Yifu, president of Xinjiegou Research Institute in Peking University, said that after the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the prices of international mineral resources such as oil and food soared. At the same time, US sanctions against Russia have brought a lot of uncertainty to international finance. China, as the largest oil importer and a major importer of various raw materials and grain, is bound to be affected. However, China is optimistic about China's GDP growth target of 5.5% because of its large economic scale, complete industrial chain, strong internal dynamic resilience and high-speed growth. "In the current situation, it is realistic to set the target at around 5.5%." Lin Yifu believes that China will also be the country that contributes the most to the world economic growth, and will also be the main power source of the world economic growth.
He Weiwen said that for China, the short-term impact of the Sino-Ukrainian war is mainly manifested in the fluctuation of upstream industries such as energy, transportation and chemical industry caused by rising energy prices. With the general increase of commodity prices, this trend will be transmitted to the downstream of manufacturing and industrial chain, pushing up production costs and consumer goods prices. In addition, the sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe on Russia may bring secondary sanctions to Russian enterprises, and Sino-Russian trade will also be under certain pressure in the short term. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to be protracted, China may pay more economic costs.
Bai Ming pointed out that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has fundamentally changed the geopolitical pattern in Europe. After the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, Europe will objectively need to expand cooperation with China, especially to export to China, invest in each other and cooperate in the fourth industrial revolution. It is an inevitable choice for the EU to turn to Asia and China to maintain economic development, and economic cooperation with the EU will bring new opportunities to China.