Reason one: oil exhaustion theory
Since 2002, oil prices have started to rise. "Scarcity is the most valuable thing", which seems to be generally regarded as the root cause of high oil prices.
When will the oil run out? This problem has been under discussion. First of all, the buried amount and exploitable life of oil vary with the source of research data. At the end of June, 2007 1 1, the Petroleum Exploitation Alliance issued a forecast that "the world's oil that can be produced will be exhausted after 68 years"; Masao He of Japan Enterprise Petroleum Research Institute believes that "the coming crude oil (traditional fuel) can still be mined for 60 years, and the oil sands (sandstone containing crude oil) and oil shells (accumulation rocks containing crude oil) can still be used for more than 200 years." Secondly, the amount of buried oil will increase after many years. According to statistics, in 2007, the world's proven oil volume was about1.1.50 billion barrels, which was 10% higher than the estimated figure in the previous two years.
No matter how far away from reality, the international oil price soared to $0/33 per barrel in a short time this year, which triggered a new round of energy panic, and many countries hoarded oil in succession, which fundamentally pushed up the oil price further.
Reason 2: imbalance between supply and demand.
It is reported that the world consumes 80 million barrels of oil every day (every 7 barrels 1 ton). Among them, the United States is the largest oil consumer, followed by Japan, China, Russia, Germany and South Korea. At present, about half of the world's oil supply depends on the large oil fields above 1 10, and these large oil fields have gone through the exploitation process of 50 or 60 years, basically passing the "golden period" of their "life cycle" and entering the period of stable production decline. According to Xu Xiaojie, an international oil and gas investment consultant, the relationship between supply and demand of oil is a fundamental problem, and he thinks it is also a "fundamental, long-term and fundamental determinant".
There are many reasons for the imbalance between supply and demand. For a long time, the growth of world oil production is very slow, the oil supply facilities are very fragile, and very large new oil fields are rarely found. In addition, insufficient investment in upstream oil and gas fields, declining or lagging production capacity and declining supply sources are also the reasons for the imbalance between supply and demand.
Reason three: the theory of dollar depreciation
In addition to the scarcity of resources, artificial speculation has also led to the recent surge in oil prices. Among them, the theory of dollar depreciation is the most popular factor.
The United States reached an agreement with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to use the US dollar as the oil settlement currency. In order to ensure that the interests of oil-producing countries are not harmed, it is in line with the strategic intention and interests of the United States to continue to push up oil prices today with the sharp depreciation of the US dollar.
When the international oil price exceeded 1 10, Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup, said that the soaring oil price had nothing to do with the supply-demand structure, but was due to the depreciation of the dollar and the increasing inflationary pressure. Crude oil futures trading in the international market is calculated in US dollars, and investors holding other strong currencies buy crude oil futures, which leads to an increase in oil prices.
Chakib Khalil, the rotating chairman of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, also agreed. He also believes that the surge in international oil prices has nothing to do with oil supply and demand, but is caused by the depreciation of the US dollar and market speculation. The continuous depreciation of the US dollar provides an opportunity for international speculative hot money to enter the crude oil and gold futures markets for speculation, resulting in rising oil prices and gold prices.
Reason 4: speculative theory
Connie Turner, a senior analyst of Wall Street strategy, pointed out that speculation in the market is the root cause of soaring oil prices, and all kinds of short-term news are only one source of oil price speculation. Due to the intervention of funds, the market will amplify any news that may lead to an increase in oil prices. For example, today's rise in oil prices may be due to the unexpected decline in commercial inventories of crude oil in the United States, and tomorrow may be a geopolitical issue. What he said is not unreasonable. It is reported that the benchmark crude oil futures price in new york market has increased by nearly 40% since this year, and the oil price in new york market increased by 17% in May alone. May 16 new york oil price 127 USD. Although it is the price of the day, the oil futures trading in July. This is the same as the February oil with an oil price of 65,438 on June 2. The investment form of "futures" obviously has a great influence on oil prices.
A democratic senator in the United States said that speculative forces are extremely indulgent in the futures market, and the daily trading volume of the futures market has exceeded the actual demand by more than 20 times. This is also one of the strong evidences for speculators to speculate on futures.
Reason five: the theory of seasonal law
Some environmentalists believe that summer is the peak of oil consumption, and the northern hemisphere will gradually enter summer, and both output and domestic oil will enter a period of growth. May to 165438+ 10 is the annual hurricane season in the United States. Once there is news of a hurricane, it will affect the rise of oil prices, which has become a fixed trend. Experts believe that this has also affected the recent surge in oil prices to some extent.
Reason six: geopolitics.
Former Kuwaiti Deputy Minister of Petroleum Aon said recently that geopolitical tension in the world's major oil-producing areas is the main reason for the recent sharp rise in oil prices in the international market. Aon said in an interview with Kuwait News Agency that the geopolitical tensions in Iraq, Iran and Nigeria have stimulated the rise of oil prices.
The distribution of petroleum resources and reserves is extremely unbalanced. At present, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait and other countries in the Middle East account for more than 60% of the world's total oil reserves, while the oil reserves in the Asia-Pacific region are less than 2%. Judging from the three oil crises in history, high oil prices will further aggravate the geopolitical risks in this region, such as the Iran-Iraq war of 1978 and the Gulf war of 1990, and its fundamental goal is still to compete for oil resources. This is in a vicious circle. The more unstable geopolitics is, the more it forces all parties to drive up oil prices.
Reason 7: long and short conspiracy theories
In addition, there is a conspiracy theory in western academic circles, which has also become an explanation for the high oil price. According to analysis, there are two kinds of conspiracy theories, one is long-term conspiracy theory and the other is short-term conspiracy theory. The long-term conspiracy theory is that American oil giants actually have very mature energy alternative technologies, which are also very cheap after mass production. In fact, when the oil price is $50 a barrel, technology can be industrialized, but American oil giants are in no hurry to introduce new technologies in order to safeguard their vested interests.
Short-term conspiracy theory means that US President George W. Bush himself is the darling of American oil groups. In order to "pay off debts", the US government intends to push up oil prices. Analysts of this argument believe that there is no absolute oil shortage so far, but the oil price has doubled, which is related to the strange "American phenomenon" in recent years: when the oil price is high, the US government must expand its oil reserves and sell it when the oil price is low. Moreover, when oil prices soared, American oil companies blocked some oil wells, and these reverse operations all pointed to the Bush administration.