Since 1980s, despite the ups and downs of the world mining industry, many countries have attached great importance to mineral exploration and discovered a large number of mineral resources. The proven reserves of major mineral resources in the world have increased in different degrees, except for lead, potassium salt and fluorite, while iron, manganese, tin and trona have not changed. Among them, the proven reserves of petroleum, natural gas, gold, silver, platinum group metals, cobalt, nickel, chromium, rare earth metals, diamonds, barite, graphite and other mineral resources have increased substantially.
In recent years, newly discovered and expanded non-fuel minerals are mostly concentrated in precious metals, base metals and diamonds. In terms of gold deposits, Canada, the United States, Peru, Chile, Argentina, Australia, South Africa, Tanzania, Mali, Turkey, Romania, Ireland, Egypt, Russia, Spain, Mexico, Guatemala, Colombia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Japan, Mongolia, Iran and other countries have made many important discoveries. For example, Pascal Dalama gold and silver mine found on the border between Chile and Argentina contains 532t of gold and silver17371t; The gold resources of Chacha gold mine in Ianaco, Peru have expanded to 1.340t, making it the third largest gold mine in the world (next only to Glazburg in Indonesia and Mulongtao in Uzbekistan). The estimated resources of Australia's "super-large gold mine" are 870t t, and some of these discoveries are the expansion of the original mine reserves and resources, and most of them are found in the periphery of known mines. By the end of 2002, the world gold reserve was 42500t, down 15% compared with 200 1 year, and the reserve base was 89000t, up 14. 1% compared with 200 1 year. In 2002, the static guaranteed life of the world gold reserve and reserve base were 19 years and 39 years respectively. The total amount of gold resources in the world is estimated to be 654.38+ten thousand tons, of which 15% ~ 20% is the * * * associated resource in other metal deposits. South Africa accounts for about half of the world's resources, and the United States accounts for 9%.
In recent years, Bolivia, Canada, Argentina, Peru and Mexico have made great progress in silver exploration. The most important one is the discovery of a super-large silver deposit in Sancristobal, Bolivia. After the late drilling of 1998, the ore reserves have reached 259 million tons, with silver content of 62.2× 10-6, zinc content of10.57% and lead content of 0.55%, that is, silver content of 16 166. There is also the Beladero gold and silver mine discovered in Argentina in recent years, with a total resource of 220 million t, including 5050t of silver and 265t of gold. According to the statistics of US Geological Survey, the world silver reserves and reserves base in 2002 were 270,000 t and 520,000 t, respectively, which decreased by 3.6% and increased by 20.9% compared with 200 1 year. According to the silver mine output in 2002 17796.6t, the static guarantee period of the existing silver reserves and reserve base in the world is 15 years and 29 years respectively.
Platinum group metal deposit is a new key mineral in foreign mineral exploration in recent years, and many new discoveries have been made. A large number of platinum group metal deposits have been discovered in Canada, the United States, South Africa, Finland and Russia. By the end of 2002, the world's platinum group metal reserves and reserves base were 7 1000t and 80000t respectively, and South Africa's platinum group metal reserves ranked first in the world. The world's platinum group metal resources are estimated to exceed 654.38 million tons, mainly produced in Bushveld complex in South Africa.
In terms of copper deposits, porphyry copper deposits are explored more. In Chile, Peru, Zambia, Pakistan, Iran, Ecuador, Indonesia, Mongolia and other countries, due to further work, the copper reserves in some proven mining areas have greatly increased. For example, the Spencer deposit discovered by grassroots exploration in northern Chile in 1996, the reserve of open-pit mining area has increased to 400 million t, and the copper grade is 1%. In March 2003, Ivanhoe Company of Canada announced the discovery of a huge Oyatolegai porphyry copper deposit in Mongolia, with an estimated resource of 2.4 billion tons, including copper14.64 million tons and gold 336t tons. In 2002, the world's copper reserves were 480 million tons, with a reserve base of 950 million tons, increasing by 4 1.2% and 46.2% respectively compared with 2006. The US Geological Survey estimated that the world's land copper resources in 2002 were 65.438+0.6 billion tons, and the copper resources in manganese nodules and manganese crusts in deep seabed and mountainous areas were 700 million tons. In 2002, the world copper reserves and reserve base accounted for 30% and 59% of the land copper resources, respectively, indicating that the global copper exploration potential is still great.
As for lead-zinc deposits, sedimentary rocks are mainly jet sedimentary deposits and Mississippi valley deposits, and the expansion of known deposits is the highlight of exploration results, such as the Mehdiye Zhengde deposit in Iran, which has obtained12.2 million tons of lead and zinc metal. The known lead and zinc resources on the global continent are distributed in about 50 countries on five continents except Antarctica. According to the statistics of the US Geological Survey, in 2002, the world's proven lead resources were 65.438+0.5 billion tons, the lead reserves were 68 million tons, and the reserve base was 65.438+0.4 billion tons. The zinc resources are 654.38+0.9 billion tons, the zinc reserves are 200 million tons and the zinc reserve base is 450 million tons. Compared with the early 1990s, the lead reserves are reduced by 2 million tons and the reserve base is increased by 20 million tons. Zinc reserves and reserves base increased by 56 million t and155 million t respectively in the early 1990s.
Diamond exploration continues to be valued. In 2002 and 2003, its exploration expenses accounted for 13.5% and 14.6% of the total solid mineral exploration budget, respectively. Canada, Southern Africa, West Africa, Tanzania, Zambia, Russia, Australia, Northern Europe, Brazil, French Guiana, India, Indonesia, Greenland and the United States are all engaged in diamond exploration. Among them, diamond exploration in Canada still occupies an important position. The most important exploration discovery in 2002 was that Zambia Geological Survey found a huge diamond mine with extremely rich reserves at the junction of northern and eastern provinces, which exceeded the world's largest mine-Mbuji Mayi industrial diamond mine in the southeast of Congo (DRC). The US Geological Survey estimates that the world industrial diamond reserves in 2002 were 580 million carats, with a reserve base of 65.438+0.2 billion carats, and the gem-grade (including near-gem-grade) diamonds with a reserve base of 300 million carats.
Generally speaking, the demand for most mineral resources in the world is increasing. Except for a few minerals such as coal, manganese, copper, lead, vanadium, antimony, fluorite and diamond, the basic life of static reserves of most major minerals in the world has been improved to varying degrees, including chromite, nickel, cobalt, tungsten, bismuth, platinum group elements, bauxite, mercury, sulfur, barite, graphite and magnesite. However, there are still great differences in the degree of guarantee of mineral resources demand in different countries. The static reserve life of main minerals in developed countries is mostly lower than the world average, and the reserve guarantee degree of many minerals is low. In terms of fuel minerals, the life of static oil reserves in OECD countries is only 10 years, while the world average is 45 years; The life of static natural gas reserves in developed countries is only 15 years, while the world average is 65 years. In terms of non-fuel minerals, the static reserve life of most major minerals in OECD countries, such as manganese, chromite, nickel, cobalt, copper, gold, sulfur and phosphate rock, is obviously lower than the world average. Only a few major minerals such as iron ore, lead, zinc, silver, kaolin and trona are higher than the world average. With the globalization of mining industry, scientific and technological progress in mineral exploration and development and continuous advanced geological exploration, the reserves or reserve bases of important global mineral resources have increased to varying degrees in recent 10 years (table 1-2). According to the current level of mineral exploitation in the world, the proven reserves of most existing minerals can be guaranteed to be mined for 20 ~ 40 years, and the guaranteed life of some minerals is much longer (for example, 40 years for oil, nearly 60 years for natural gas and more than 200 years for coal). If the predicted resources are added, the guaranteed life will be greatly increased.
Table 1- 1 basic life change of static reserves of world mineral resources (① year)
Note: ① Reserve base/mineral quantity; ② Oil and natural gas are estimated proven reserves; ③ Coal recoverable reserves and proven reserves. The data of 198 1 in this table are quoted from Foreign Mineral Annual1995 ~1996; The data of 1992 and 2002 are calculated according to Annual Review of Foreign Minerals 1992 and Annual Review of World Mineral Resources 2002-2003 (edited by Information Center of Ministry of Land and Resources) respectively.
Second, the ups and downs of the global mineral supply and demand situation
The global supply and demand of mineral products and market trade are more directly affected by the world economy. In the early 1990s, developed countries experienced economic recession, the demand for mineral products decreased, the price of mineral products was low, and the cost increased. Some countries began to privatize the mining industry. After entering the mid-1990s, the supply and demand of world mineral products and market trade maintained a normal development trend, and the supply and demand of mineral products and trade increased in an all-round way. Most mineral products have reached the highest level in history, the market is active and the prices are relatively firm. The world mineral products market rebounded further, reversing the market weakness in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Some major mineral producing countries, including the United States, Canada and Australia, have increased their mining output value, especially developing mineral producing countries with good investment environment. At the same time, although some traditional large-scale mineral consumption centers, including Western Europe, Japan and North America, are transforming into a post-industrial information society, their mineral consumption has steadily increased due to the realization of a soft landing and the momentum of economic recovery in previous years, while those emerging developing countries have increased their mineral demand even more in the process of industrialization.
Table 1-2 10 Changes of World Major Mineral Reserves
Note: ① The reserves or reserves base is rich, and there is no statistical data. The data are quoted from World Mineral Resources Annual 200 1-2002 edited by Information Center of Ministry of Land and Resources, Geological Publishing House, 2003.
During the period of 1995, the output and consumption of non-ferrous metal mineral products in the world increased rapidly, and the inventory decreased. Some mineral products such as lead and zinc are in short supply. After two years of sharp increase, the price of non-ferrous metal mineral products began to drop sharply from 1996. Entering 1996, the world nonferrous metal market tends to be weak and the price falls. The prices of major non-ferrous metal mineral products such as aluminum, copper, lead, zinc, nickel and tin decreased by 1 1% on average throughout the year, which was close to the level of 1994 at the beginning of the year. The annual decline rate is the largest since the 1990s, and the decline rate is as follows: aluminum is also the first country to invest in exploration, with an investment of 47 1 10,000 USD. However, the international gold market 1995 is stable, and the supply of 1996 exceeds the demand. During the period of 1997, the gold price in the international market plummeted to the lowest point of $282 per ounce since 1979, which had a negative impact on the entire metal mining industry. Due to the oversupply of the market and the impact of the financial crisis in the Asia-Pacific region, the price of basic metals continued to fall across the board. On the basis of the average decline of 196 1 1%, the average decline of 10% to 1994 is the lowest point since the price increase of metal mineral products. However, the supply and demand of precious metal silver and platinum group metals in this period. The output of silver has been rising since 1995, and has increased by 30% from 1997.
Since 1999, the world economy has gradually embarked on the track of recovery, and the global demand for mineral products has increased substantially, which has driven the growth of many important mineral products. The international mineral products market has gradually changed from oversupply in the previous two years to a basic balance between supply and demand. Due to the increase in demand, the price of non-ferrous metals generally rebounded, and the price of nickel rose by 30.6%. Among precious metals, the price of gold fluctuated greatly, from $278 per ounce at the beginning of the year to around $250, the lowest in 20 years. Therefore, in September of the same year, 15 European central banks issued a joint statement, reaffirming the important position of gold in the international monetary system, and promising that the annual sales volume of yellow gold will not exceed 400t tons within five years, and the use scope of gold leasing, gold futures and gold options will not be expanded. As a result, in less than three weeks, the highest increase of gold reached 32%, which was unprecedented in 15. Since then, gold has started to fall under the pressure of profit taking. During the period of 1999, due to Russia's restrictions on the export of platinum group metals, the demand of various countries continued to increase, the global supply of platinum group metals was tight, and the prices of platinum, palladium and rhodium all rose sharply. In 2000, the price of platinum group metals continued to rise sharply, the market demand of non-ferrous metals in the world continued to grow, the surplus situation of copper and aluminum improved obviously, and the demand for nickel and zinc continued to exceed the supply. In this case, except for the oversupply of lead and silver, the prices of other non-ferrous metals generally rose sharply, and the price of nickel continued to rise by 43.0%.
In 200 1 year, the world economy suffered the worst blow since 10, the world trade flow dropped sharply, and the demand growth of mineral products market also slowed down obviously, which led to the decline or slowdown of many important mineral products (table 1-3), and the supply and demand of the international mineral products market were basically balanced. The growth rate of world mineral trade is still higher than the growth rate of mineral production and consumption (Table 1-4). The demand of the world's major consumer countries of non-ferrous metals has generally declined. Among them, copper consumption decreased by 2.6%, aluminum consumption decreased by 2.4% and tin consumption decreased by 3.4%. The consumption of lead, zinc and nickel increased by 4.6%, 2.5% and 1.8% respectively (table 1-5). See table 1-6 for the supply and demand of major non-ferrous metals in the world in 200 1 year. Lead is the only promising nonferrous metal in the 200 1 market. Except for the shortage of lead, other metals are in surplus, of which copper exceeds 600,000 tons ... The inventory consumption ratio of copper, aluminum, zinc, tin and nickel is higher than the normal level. The price of non-ferrous metals in the world has fallen sharply except lead. According to the London Metal Exchange (LME), the copper price of LME three-month futures fell to 1336 USD/ton, the lowest since 200 1+0 1. In September, 20001year, the price of tin in the international market fell to the lowest price in 28 years-3,600 USD/ton, and the global demand for lead was in short supply, and the price kept rising. Although the output of 200 1 mineral gold has increased, the total global gold supply has dropped by 2.6% again, which is the lowest level in five years. The reason is that the number of investors selling real gold has decreased, while short selling is relatively small, and the total demand for gold has dropped slightly by 2.6%. The supply and demand of gold were basically balanced in the whole year, and the average annual price was only 27 1.04 USD/oz, which was the lowest since 1978. Affected by weak industrial demand, the price of silver in the international market fell for the third consecutive year, and the price of platinum group metals generally fell.
Table 1-3 Output of Major Mineral Products in the World
sequential
Source: (1) mineral products in summer, 2002, 2003 and 2004; (2) World Metal Statistical Yearbook 2003; (3) Mineral Yearbook, 200 1, 2002; (4) Mining Yearbook in 2002 and 2003; (5) Journal of Engineering and Mining 200 1, 2002, 2003; (6) Industrial minerals, 200 1, 2002, 2003; (7) Journal of Petroleum and Natural Gas, 2000,2001,2002.
Table 1-4 import and export volume of some mineral products in the world
Source: (1) World Statistical Yearbook of Metals in 2003; (2) Annual Review of Mining Industry, 200 1, 2002, 2003; (3) Coal Information, 200 1, 2002, 2003; (4) mineral commodities in 2002, 2003 and 2004; BP Amoco world energy statistics review, June 2002; June 2003; (6) World Mineral Resources Yearbook 2002-2003, edited by Information Center of Ministry of Land and Resources, Geological Publishing House, 2004.
Table 1-5 consumption of some mineral products in the world
Source: (1) mineral products in summer, 2002, 2003 and 2004; (2) World Statistical Yearbook of Metals in 2003; (3) Journal of Engineering and Mining, 2002, 2003; (4) Annual Review of Mining Industry, 200 1, 2002; (5) Industrial minerals, 2002 and 2003; (6) Mineral Yearbook 2002; (7) BP World Energy Statistics Review, June 2003; (8) World Mineral Resources Yearbook 2002-2003, edited by Information Center of Ministry of Land and Resources, Geological Publishing House, 2004.
Table1-6 Supply and demand of major non-ferrous metals in the world in 2003 Unit: 10,000 tons.
Note: Calculated according to China Nonferrous Metals Industry Yearbook (2002) and World Metals Statistics.
In 2002, the world economy showed a slow recovery trend, the American economy showed a low growth rate, the economies of the euro zone and Japan recovered slowly, the economies of East Asian countries rebounded rapidly, and Russia and countries with transitional economies in Central and Eastern Europe also showed a good development momentum. In the whole year of 2002, world trade began to go out of recession in the second quarter and showed a trend of gradually accelerating growth. In 2003, driven by the economic growth in Asia and the United States, the world mineral trade increased by 4.5%, and the world mineral export increased by 16%, reaching 7.3 trillion US dollars, the highest growth rate since 1995. China's merchandise imports increased by 40%, reaching $4 128 billion, ranking third in the world after the United States and Germany. During the same period, the export volume of mineral products increased by 35% to US$ 438.4 billion, ranking fourth in the world after Germany, the United States and Japan. In this excellent situation, the demand situation of international mineral products market is better than that in 2002.
Under this influence, the world nonferrous metal market has undergone a major turning point. Most non-ferrous metals have ended the situation of falling prices and low market for several years, and the status of non-ferrous metal mining and smelting industry in the global industry has been greatly improved. The output and consumption of major non-ferrous metals in the world have greatly increased, the relationship between supply and demand has greatly improved, and the inventory of some mineral products has begun to decrease. Taking aluminum as an example, the improvement of the world economy has promoted the increase of aluminum consumption. According to the statistics of World Metals Statistics, the world consumption of primary aluminum was 2533 1 1 10,000 t in 2002 and 274 1.44 million t in 2003, an increase of 8.22% year-on-year, with a net increase of 2,083,300 t. In 2003, the consumption of primary aluminum in China increased by 6,543. It can be seen that the consumption of world primary aluminum in 2003 was mainly driven by the growth of China. Take copper as an example. In 2002, the mine output was greatly reduced and the copper price was depressed, which led to the shortage of copper raw materials and the decline of copper concentrate output, and only slightly increased in 2003. In 2003, the world copper consumption was 15608600 t, an increase of 4. 14% over 2002. Among the major copper consuming countries (regions) in the world, except China, where the consumption increased by 3.96% (China and Taiwan Province), Japan, Germany, Italy and Mexico all increased, while the United States decreased by 4.3%. From the three major copper consumption regions of Asia, Europe and North America, Asia increased by 6.5%, Europe increased slightly by 0.8% and North America decreased by 4.8%. As in 2002, China remained the biggest driving force for the growth of world copper consumption in 2003. The recovery of the world economy has led to the growth of copper consumption, and the relationship between supply and demand is in short supply throughout the year, and the trend of copper prices has risen steadily and sharply throughout the year. The prices of major nonferrous metals, such as aluminum, nickel, tin, lead and zinc, have all gone through a process similar to that of copper in 2003. At the end of 2003, the nickel futures price reached an unprecedented height in 15 years. The prices of tin and lead also hit an eight-year high; The price of aluminum and zinc with the worst performance has at least returned to the level of 200 1 at the beginning of the year (Figure 1- 1).
Slightly different from the supply and demand situation of mineral products in the world, since the 1990s, China has obviously entered the stage of rapid industrialization, and the output and consumption of some important bulk minerals have risen rapidly. For example, the iron ore finished product was 86 million tons in 1990, and increased to1350,000 tons in 2003, while the consumption increased from about 1990 to 281000,000 tons. The mine output of copper increased from 300,000 t in 1990 to 580,000 t in 2003, and the consumption increased from 730,000 t in 1990 to 32 t in 2003. 1990, the output of alumina to aluminum was more than 700,000 t, reaching 3 million t in 2003. The consumption increased from over 700,000 t in 1990 to 5.48 million t in 2003. The huge increase in the consumption of bulk pillar minerals in China has promoted the international mineral products market. In 2003 alone, the net import of iron ore was 654.38+48 million tons, copper (copper concentrate, refined copper and scrap copper) was 2.25 million tons, and aluminum (alumina is equivalent to metallic aluminum) was 2.7 million tons. Such a huge import volume once caused a sharp rise in international mineral prices.
Figure1-11989 ~ 2003 world gold production and annual average spot price of gold.
(Quoted from Metal Economic Group: Strategic Report, May/June 2003)