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Will house prices come down in the next few years?
Five popular laws for judging the rise and fall of house prices

At present, China's real estate industry has become a major area that thousands of households are most concerned about. Although from the macro-control point of view, the government wants to squeeze out the bubble rather than let the housing market collapse, after all, no one can predict the future. "Real estate law of the masses" is a popular economic law, which is easily understood and accepted by people.

Psychological law of conformity

Now no one knows whether house prices will go up or down. Ordinary people have the psychology of buying up and not buying down. As soon as I saw the newspaper report that there were people queuing to buy a house, I was anxious and excited. I regretted the price increase of the house I wanted to buy. In fact, buying a house is a long-term investment. At the beginning of buying a house, it is necessary to plan the future days repeatedly to avoid troubles afterwards. Property buyers must not be blinded by the "herd mentality" in front of them, and buy home long-term inappropriate troubles and uneconomical regrets.

Golden season law

Generally speaking, May and June 5438+00 is the peak season for real estate transactions, and house prices are also rising at this time; In July, August and the end of the year, the general transaction is relatively light. At this time, the house price is relatively stable, and the owners who are listed for sale are more anxious. It is more appropriate to sell or buy at this time. There are many good houses for you to choose slowly, and you can also get a more suitable discount. If you need a loan, and you are going to collect it in a short time, you might as well make more efforts in the hot summer days of July and August, look at the house more, buy it and rent it out; When the contract expires in one year, it happens to be the golden age of 10, so it can be hung up and sold for a good price.

Financing law

It is recognized that real estate has the function of maintaining and increasing value, and it is based on this that real estate has another special function-financing function; On the other hand, as a guarantee of financing, banks believe that real estate mortgage can be used to provide the borrower's credit. When dealing with some civil and commercial affairs involving "credit guarantee", whether individuals or units can provide real estate licenses and agree to mortgage, they can often be accepted by the other party. In essence, the mortgage at this time is actually an economic guarantee and can be regarded as a certain amount of "money".

law of inertia

Whether it is the foreign exchange market, the stock market or the futures market, the more it rises, the more it peaks. So is the property market. There is a law of inertia here. The greater the value of a commodity, the harder it is to rise, but once it rises, it can last for a long time. Because the real estate market is capital-intensive, once it rises, it will last for a long time, but once it starts to fall, it is not easy to turn back. Hong Kong, for example, dropped by 60% from 1997 to 2002. Japan's economy showed signs of recovery this year, but house prices still fell by 5%.

Long period law

Once the capital has a profit of 20%, it will become active. If there is a 50% profit, it will lead to positive risks. If there is a profit margin of 200%, the output will soon increase, but the profit margin will soon decrease or even be negative. At this time, many investors will have to withdraw from the market, so the profit rate will gradually rise, which will eventually be equivalent to the average social profit rate. But why can the real estate industry prosper for several years without recession? Because the production cycle is long. A local match factory may increase tenfold in a month, but if a local real estate project doubles in a month, it is unlikely to be a "Great Leap Forward" and it needs a lot of money. Coupled with unfair competition, unfair competition and various factors, high housing prices cannot fall. In recent years, the development speed of real estate is much faster than the growth speed of GDP. At this rate, by 20 10, the GDP of China's real estate industry will surpass that of the whole country, and the state will never allow this to happen.