1. Past life of "immortal bird" Huangtai wine industry
Huangtai Liquor Industry, founded in 1985, became famous in 1990s. He was awarded the Silver Award at 1992 American International Famous Wine Expo and the Gold and Silver Award at the 4th International Famous Wine Expo held in Tokyo. There is an inscription by the central leadership: "There is Maotai in the south and Huangtai in the north", and the scenery is infinite for a while. Huangtai Liquor, which was listed in 2000, was one year earlier than Kweichow Moutai. Today, Maotai is already a 2.3 trillion bid for A shares, but the company is on the verge of delisting.
The glory of Huangtai wine industry stayed two thousand years ago, and then the business was bleak. In the past 20 years since its listing, Huangtai Liquor Industry has been called "the immortal bird" for wearing stars and hats four times. Basically, every three or four years, a tragedy of wearing a star and a hat will be staged.
These four times were: in 2002-2003, the losses were 1 1896000 yuan and 1 1576760 yuan, respectively, and wearing a hat for the first time; In 2008-2009, the losses were 50,828110,000 yuan and 58,807110,000 yuan respectively, and they wore stars and hats for the second time; The net profit of 20 13-20 14 is-29,305,300 yuan and-39,288,500 yuan respectively. The net profit of 20 16-20 18 was negative continuously, and it was once again put on the star and hat. Surprisingly, in June of 20 18 and 1 year, Huangtai Liquor Industry found that the inventory of finished wine lost nearly 40%, amounting to about 67 million yuan.
The last suspension was on May, 2065438 19. For more than a year, the liquor sector has always stood in the most popular camp in the capital market, with a cumulative increase of more than 160%. At that time, Maotai was less than 1,000 yuan, and its market value had just passed the trillion threshold.
When the liquor industry enjoyed the capital feast this year, Huangtai liquor industry was still struggling with negative news. In March this year, Huangtai Liquor was given a warning and fined 600,000 yuan for inflating its inventory by 65.438+02 billion yuan in the 2065.438+06 annual report. At that time, while the management was punished, it was sued by investors for the dispute over the responsibility of securities misrepresentation. In July, it was enforced due to disputes over sales contracts; In September, he was punished by the CSRC for dishonesty in the securities and futures market.
However, this is not the first time that he has been punished for false statements. As early as August of 20 17, the court awarded 10 investor 22.93 million yuan for inflating the annual profit of 20 15. According to enterprise data, enterprises were sued for 48 cases of securities misrepresentation liability disputes and 40 cases of securities dispute enforcement, and four executives were restricted from high consumption because of corporate dishonesty.
To sum up, since the listing of Huangtai Liquor, it can be said that the madness on the first day of resumption of trading is likely to turn into a farce.
2. Lack of foundation for sustainable performance.
First of all, Huangtai Liquor Industry can come back to life because of the comprehensive blood transfusion of Sheng Da Group. In 20 19, Sheng Da Group donated 0/00% equity of Sheng Da Huangtai Company, and the fixed assets increased by 63,040,300 yuan, and the original value of intangible assets increased by 76,490110,000 yuan. It also provided the company with an interest-free loan of 20 million yuan, and its affiliated companies also purchased a large amount of liquor from Huangtai Liquor Industry. These have brought beautiful reports to Huangtai wine industry.
The financial report of Huangtai Liquor Industry shows that the total operating income in 20 19 was 99.0463 million yuan, up by 288.67% year-on-year; The net profit was 682,654.38+0.37 million yuan, up by 65,438+0,765,438+0.44% year-on-year; In the third quarter of this year, the revenue was 54.3575 million yuan, up 37.34% year-on-year, and the net profit was 4.0026 million yuan, up 65.438+028.70% year-on-year.
But there is no capital that does not pursue interests. On April 13 this year, Huangtai Liquor Industry announced that the controlling shareholder and actual controller of the company had changed, and the controlling shareholder was changed to Sheng Da Group, and Sheng Da Group and its concerted actions held a total of 19.90% of Western Assets.
Secondly, this year's revenue and net profit have increased substantially, and the net cash flow generated by operating activities in the three quarters has always been negative, indicating that the company's currency quality is not optimistic. In addition, since the listing, the undistributed profit per share of the company has been negative since June 2003, and has gradually increased, indicating that the losses on the company's books have increased year by year. Even such a good performance this year has remained below -3.5 yuan, and the basic earnings per share in the three quarters were -0.03 yuan, 0.02 yuan and 0.02 yuan respectively. Obviously, it is almost impossible for shareholders to want cash dividends. In fact, the company issued only a few shares in 2003 and 2006.
After the comprehensive blood transfusion of Sheng Da Group, the company's equity ratio has dropped to 3.49, but the life extension after blood transfusion is likely to be one-off, and the company's liabilities will still be repaid through operation in the future. According to the semi-annual report of 2020, the top five accounts receivable accounted for 96.22% at the end of the period, and these five enterprises are all holding subsidiaries of Huangtai Liquor Industry 100%. In this way, the company is more like a left-handed seller in sales, which not only has the benefit transfer, but also has the suspicion of whitewashing statements. How many products will actually reach consumers in the end still needs to be questioned, not to mention the stability of future revenue.
Third, the company's management is constantly fighting. According to the announcement issued by Huangtai Liquor Industry in June 20 17, since June 20 15, Huangtai Trading and its controlling shareholder Huangtai Brewery have brought Huangtai Liquor Industry to court 10 times, involving a total amount of 220 million yuan. The infighting of major shareholders has caused serious consumption to the company. Product development and upgrading, channel development, brand maintenance and other aspects can not be carried out in an orderly manner, and the dividend period of liquor development has long been surpassed by many competitors. The once brilliant brand has declined.
3. The rising trend of liquor sector can't save Huangtai liquor industry.
At present, the liquor sector is still on the rise, and the promotion of price increase and capitalization rate will boost the sector. In the medium and long term, the liquor sector is still the favored area of mainstream funds. However, factors such as the great differentiation of liquor enterprises' performance, the prominent head effect of high-end liquor and the widespread valuation bubble are accelerating the arrival of stock price trend differentiation.
Apart from the infighting that may recur, there are still many problems facing Huangtai wine industry at present. In the future, the company will face the confrontation with local strong wine enterprises and the market penetration of other large wine enterprises. In addition, the attractiveness of imported products such as wine and imported craft beer to young people will also increase the survival pressure of the company.
The P/E ratio of Huangtai wine industry reached 70 times, which blew up the bubble compared with the performance, while the P/E ratios of Wuliangye and Maotai in the same industry were all above 50 times, and Yanghe shares were less than 34 times. After a year and a half, the increase on the first day of resumption of trading exceeded 300%, and the daily limit was pulled again on the second trading day. The benefits brought by the skyrocketing performance have been released almost, and the chicken feathers will soon be ushered in after the madness.
Huangtai Liquor, whose annual revenue is less than 654.38 billion yuan, has not got rid of the risk of being delisted. According to the latest delisting standards, two consecutive years of net profit loss (before and after deduction) and revenue below 654.38 billion yuan will trigger delisting, and there will be no chance to suspend/resume listing. Huangtai Liquor is far from coming back to life, but its share price has more than doubled in two trading days. Investors may have to pay close attention to whether there will be major shareholders to reduce their holdings in the near future.