1, in the short term, short-term stocks and bonds are all negative. The depreciation of RMB will impact asset prices, leading to the weakening of financial, real estate and other related sectors, dragging down the overall market. In addition, in the context of the Fed's interest rate hike, once the expectation of RMB depreciation is formed, it will lead to the outflow of hot money, which is also not conducive to the strength of A shares.
2. In the long run, the depreciation will increase steadily and the economy will have a bottom. In the past two years, the RMB exchange rate is not flexible enough, which leads to the real effective exchange rate of RMB rising with the US dollar. At the same time, the currencies of euro, Japanese yen and BRICS countries all depreciated by more than 10%, and the export pressure was huge, which aggravated the pressure of steady growth. The depreciation of RMB exchange rate will help to reduce export pressure and also help economic recovery. Therefore, the real economy will gradually improve in the third quarter.
3. Textile toys benefit the most, which is a very important point that RMB depreciation affects the stock market. China is a big exporter, and the simplest reason is that RMB depreciation has a negative impact on foreign trade exports. Textiles and clothing, toys, shoes and hats are the biggest beneficiaries. It has been calculated that for every RMB depreciation 1%, the sales profit rate of textile and garment industry will increase by 2% ~ 6%. With the depreciation of RMB, the purchasing power of foreign currency has increased correspondingly, which is also beneficial to the export of toys and clothing in China. In addition, because most home appliance enterprises use US dollars to settle foreign exchange when selling their products, the depreciation of RMB has also increased the exchange income of related enterprises relatively obviously.
4. Bad aviation papermaking. The depreciation of RMB will have a certain negative impact on industries with relatively large dollar liabilities such as aviation and paper making, and the rebound of oil prices will also put pressure on aviation stocks; Maybe we can consider getting involved in aviation stocks on dips, because the performance of this industry has grown well this year.
5. Real estate stocks are under pressure. The depreciation of RMB will lead to the shrinkage of RMB assets. At the same time, the depreciation of RMB has greatly slowed down the speed of capital inflow and put pressure on real estate prices. However, because China's capital account has not been fully opened, the impact of exchange rate depreciation on the capital market and real estate market is still controllable. However, the impact of expected changes in the market cannot be ignored. The expectation of RMB exchange rate depreciation is strong, and the capital market and real estate market will face greater pressure.