(A) Introduction to the copper industry chain
At all times and in all countries, copper developed with the birth and development of civilization. Therefore, after long-term development, copper production has formed a complete industrial chain: upstream mining-midstream processing and smelting-downstream calendering.
The upstream of copper mainly involves mining and mineral processing, so as to obtain the raw material copper concentrate smelted in the middle reaches. In the middle reaches, copper concentrate is processed into anode copper and electrolytic copper after rough refining and refining. Downstream is divided into primary end and terminal. Primary consumers buy electrolytic copper and further process it into products, such as copper tubes, copper bars, foil copper plates, copper bars and so on. Finally, it will enter the terminal consumption, and all kinds of copper materials will be used in electric power, home appliances, infrastructure construction, transportation and hot new energy fields.
Chart 1: Exhibition chart of copper industrial chain
Source: Guangzhou Futures Research Center's public data collation.
(2) Primary consumption of copper-copper materials
Copper is the general name of copper materials in various shapes made of pure copper or copper alloy, including bars, wires, plates, tapes, strips, tubes, foils and so on. Proficient or copper alloy is made into copper material, and finally further processed into copper products, which are widely used in electric power, household appliances, transportation, architectural decoration, new energy and other fields.
Source: Guangzhou Futures Research Center's public data collation.
SMM data show that in 20021year, the output of copper wire (copper rod), copper strip, copper tube, copper rod and copper foil accounted for 5 1%,1%,1%respectively. The overall growth rate of copper processing industry remained stable, and some varieties such as copper foil and copper strip grew rapidly.
Judging from the domestic copper output in recent years, the compound growth rate in recent years is 3.7%. Specific to all kinds of copper products, the domestic copper strip output in 202/KLOC-0 was 2.28 million tons, up by 15.7% year-on-year, with a compound growth rate of 6.9% in recent five years. The output of copper bars was 265,438+10,000 tons, up 5.0% year-on-year, and the compound growth rate in recent five years was -3.2%. The output of copper wire rod is 6.5438+0.005 million tons, up by 2.6% year-on-year, with a compound growth rate of 6.6% in recent five years. The output of copper foil was 620,000 tons, up 3 1.9% year-on-year, and the compound growth rate in recent five years was 1 1.2%. The growth rate of copper foil ranks first among copper materials, mainly due to the rapid development of new energy lithium batteries.
In 20021year, the output of copper foil for lithium batteries was 255,000 tons, up by 82. 1% year-on-year. In addition, the output of copper foil for electronic circuits was 354,000 tons, up 7.3% year-on-year, and the output of rolled copper foil was 1. 1.000 tons, up 37.5% year-on-year.
Among them, copper bars and copper tubes are mainly used to make wires and cables, transformers, water pipes and heat exchangers, which give full play to the excellent conductivity and thermal conductivity of electrolytic copper. Copper strip is a general term for copper plate and copper strip. Copper plate refers to the rolled plate of copper, including hot rolling and cold rolling. Copper strip refers to a rolled copper product with a thickness of 0.06 ~ 1.5 mm. Generally, copper foil has 90 foils and 88 foils, that is, the copper content is 90% and 88%, and the size is 16* 16cm. Copper foil is the most widely used decorative material.
Figure 3: Copper production in China.
Chart 4:2 1 primary copper production ratio
Source: SMMiFind Guangzhou Futures Research Center
Figure 5: Breakdown of 2017-2021copper output (10,000 tons,%)
Source: Guangzhou Futures Research Center of China Nonferrous Metals Processing Industry Association.
Present situation of domestic copper industry
(1) copper rod
Copper rod, as its name implies, is a rod-shaped copper product, which actually refers to a bar made of molten electrolytic copper after hot rolling or cold rolling. Copper bars can be divided into oxygen-deficient copper bars and oxygen-free copper bars. The oxygen content of the so-called hypoxic copper rod is 200 (175)-400 (450) ppm. The drawing diameter of hypoxic copper rod >: 1mm has obvious advantages.
The resistivity of oxygen-free copper rod is lower than that of low-oxygen copper rod, and it is more economical than low-oxygen copper rod. The oxygen-free copper rod has excellent drawing diameter.
China's copper rod producing areas are mostly distributed in the Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim, Pearl River Delta and other regions, among which the Yangtze River Delta accounts for the most, accounting for 6 1%, Bohai Rim and Pearl River Delta account for 16% and 12% respectively, and other regions account for 1 1%. Proficient in copper rod production capacity is mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and Jiangxi provinces, and all of them are concentrated in the eastern coast except Jiangxi. Domestic recycled copper bars are mainly distributed in Jiangxi, Hebei, Hubei and Henan provinces, and concentrated in Central China.
Figure 6: Regional Distribution of Copper Rod Capacity in China
Source: China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Mysteel Guangzhou Futures Co., Ltd.
Figure 7: Main copper rod production representative enterprises (annual production capacity is greater than or equal to 200,000 tons)
Source: SMM Guangzhou Futures Research Center
From the analysis of consumption share of product types, power cables account for the largest proportion of copper rod consumption, about 32%, followed by cables for electrical equipment, accounting for about 26% of copper rod consumption, that is, wires and cables account for 58% of copper rod consumption industry. The rest, such as winding wire, bare copper wire, electronic industry, etc., account for the remaining 42%.
Figure 8: Downstream Consumption Ratio of Copper Rod Products
Source: Guangzhou Futures Research Center of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association.
(2) Copper tube
Copper tube, also called red copper tube, is a kind of tube made of copper, which is a seamless tube after pressing and drawing. Copper tube has the characteristics of good electrical conductivity and thermal conductivity, and is the main material for conductive accessories and heat dissipation accessories of electronic products. It has become the first choice for modern contractors to install water pipes, heating and cooling pipes in all residential commercial houses. Copper tube has strong corrosion resistance, is not easy to oxidize and react with some liquid substances, so it is easy to bend and form.
China copper tube production capacity is mostly distributed in the Yangtze River Delta region, accounting for 46% of domestic production capacity. Followed by Guangdong, Shandong, Chongqing, Henan and other regions, accounting for 16%, 17%, 7% and 7% respectively, and other regions accounted for 13% in total.
Figure 9: Distribution of Copper Tube Capacity in China
Source: MysteelSMM Guangzhou Futures Research Center
Figure 10: Main copper tube production representative enterprises (annual production capacity is more than or equal to 50,000 tons)
Source: SMM Guangzhou Futures Research Center
About 75% of copper tubes in China are used in refrigeration industry. Because of its excellent flexibility, thermal conductivity and corrosion resistance, copper pipes are widely used in air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, evaporators, condensers, connecting pipes, pipes and fittings.
In the specific demand structure of copper pipes, air conditioning occupies an absolute advantage: air conditioning copper pipes are mainly used for evaporators, condensers and connecting pipes. The copper tube of refrigerator is used for the exhaust pipe, return pipe and capillary of compressor, aluminum tube for evaporator and steel tube for condenser.
Figure 1 1: List of downstream products of copper tube terminals
Source: Guangzhou Futures Research Center, sorting out public information.
(3) Copper strip
Copper strip is an important high-end variety in copper sub-industry. Copper strip refers to copper rolled products with a thickness of 0.06 ~ 1.5 mm. At present, brass strip and copper strip are the main products. Domestic copper strips are mainly divided into brass, red copper, tin phosphorus bronze, high copper alloy and white copper strip.
According to the statistical data of China Nonferrous Metals Processing Industry Association, in the comprehensive output of domestic copper processed timber in 20021year, copper strip was the second largest output subdivision, with the output reaching 2.28 million tons, accounting for 15438+0.5%, and the growth rate was obviously faster than that of the whole copper processed timber, among which brass strip accounted for the highest proportion. Domestic copper strip keeps net import. In recent years, with the continuous improvement of production technology, the net import volume has decreased year by year. 202 1, copper strip imports 127800 tons, exports 80400 tons, imports 49400 tons.
Figure 12:2 1 year domestic copper strip product output distribution.
Source: Mysteel Guangzhou Futures Research Center of China Nonferrous Metal Processing Industry Association.
Figure 13: Main copper strip production representative enterprises (annual production capacity ≥ 50,000 tons)
Source: SMM Guangzhou Futures Research Center
Copper strip is mainly used in automobiles, communication equipment, electronic information, aerospace, ships, oil tankers and household appliances. Connector is the main product of copper strip. Electronic connector is an electronic component for current or signal transmission and exchange between electronic system devices, which can enhance the flexibility of system design and assembly and is an indispensable component in electronic system. Copper strip is mainly composed of heat dissipation elements in household appliances; Propeller components are mainly used in ships.
Figure 14: List of Finished Products of Copper Plate and Strip
Source: Guangzhou Futures Research Center, sorting out public information.
(4) Copper rod
Copper rod is a rod-shaped copper product, and the raw materials are mainly waste copper and electrolytic copper. Because most copper bars are made of alloys, other metal elements are also involved, mainly brass bars made of common copper-zinc alloys, bronze bars containing tin and lead alloys, and white copper bars containing nickel.
Domestic copper platoon production capacity distribution is mostly distributed in Zhejiang province, accounting for as high as 50%; Guangdong accounts for 16%, Jiangxi accounts for 15%, Anhui, Hebei and Shandong account for a relatively small proportion, accounting for 5%, 3% and 2% respectively, and the rest regions account for 7% in total. The production capacity of copper bars is relatively concentrated, and there are 13 enterprises with a production capacity of more than 50,000 tons.
Figure 15: domestic copper platoon capacity distribution
Source: MysteelSMM Guangzhou Futures Research Center
Figure 16: Main copper bar production representative enterprises (annual production capacity is more than or equal to 50,000 tons)
Source: SMM Guangzhou Futures Research Center
Because of its electrical and thermal conductivity, copper bars are also used to manufacture precision instruments, ship parts, automobile parts, medical parts, electrical parts and various mechanical supporting materials.
Figure 17: Overview of copper rod terminal consumer products
Source: Guangzhou Futures Research Center, sorting out public information.
(5) Copper foil
Copper foil is a kind of negative electrode electrolytic material, which is a thin and continuous metal foil deposited on the substrate of circuit board. It is the conductor of PCB circuit board. It is easy to adhere to the insulating layer, accept the printed protective layer, and form circuit patterns after etching. Copper foil is made of copper and a certain proportion of other metals. There are generally 90 foils and 88 foils, that is, the copper content is 90% and 88%, and the size is 16* 16cm. Copper foil is the most widely used decorative material.
Copper foil can be divided into electrolytic copper foil and calendered copper foil according to different processes. Electrolytic copper foil is an important material for manufacturing copper clad laminate, printed circuit board and lithium ion battery. Calendered copper foil is a kind of compressed and elongated copper foil, and the copper block will extend back and forth under the pressure of the calender, which is more difficult to process than electrolytic copper foil.
Recently, there has been a corresponding breakthrough in the industrial technology of copper foil, namely PET copper foil. PET copper foil is a micron-sized composite copper foil with sandwich structure. It has a "copper-polymer-copper" composite "sandwich" structure, the middle layer is 4.5μm thick PET and PP basement membrane, and the outer layer is plated with copper with a thickness of 1μm respectively.
Therefore, from the structural point of view, compared with the traditional 6μm lithium copper foil, the PET base film with lower cost has replaced the metal copper, thus achieving the purpose of reducing the copper consumption by 2/3 and reducing the cost and weight of raw materials.
According to the data of China Electronic Materials Association, in 20021year, the production capacity of electrolytic copper foil in China was 7210.2 million tons, up by 19.2% year-on-year. It is estimated that the industrial production capacity will reach 1 103200 tons by 2022. In terms of import and export, in 202 1 year, copper foil (excluding copper clad laminate) was imported 152000 tons, exported 40000 tons, and imported1/2000 tons. Due to high technical barriers, the distribution of copper foil production capacity in China is also quite concentrated, and most of them are distributed in Guangdong and Jiangxi. Enterprises with a production capacity of more than 20,000 tons 1 1, 7 in Guangdong and 7 in Jiangxi.
Figure 18: domestic electronic copper foil production capacity
Figure 19: Copper foil production capacity of lithium batteries in China.
Source: Guangzhou Futures Research Center of China Electronic Materials Industry Association.
Figure 20: Main copper foil production representative enterprises (annual production capacity is greater than or equal to 20,000 tons)
Source: SMM Guangzhou Futures Research Center
As a special copper product, copper foil has the following two characteristics: industrial development hotspot and product development characteristics. The development characteristics of electrolytic copper foil industry are: circuit board copper foil is still the mainstream, but the proportion of lithium copper foil is increasing; New copper foil technologies are constantly emerging; The requirement of investment scale and working capital scale is one of the barriers faced by new entrants.
The characteristics of product development are: the market demand for high-grade and high-performance copper foil is increasing gradually; Due to the development of lithium batteries, the application of ultra-thin lithium copper foil is increasing gradually.
Copper foil has the characteristics of low surface oxygen content, and can be attached to various substrates, such as metals and insulating materials, with a wide temperature range. Mainly used for electromagnetic shielding and antistatic. The conductive copper foil is placed on the surface of the substrate and combined with the metal substrate, which has excellent conductivity and provides electromagnetic shielding effect. Specifically, it can be divided into: self-adhesive copper foil, double conductive copper foil, single conductive copper foil and so on.
Figure 2 1: Overview of copper foil end consumer products
Source: Guangzhou Futures Research Center's public data collation.
03 Summary and main points for attention
As a primary downstream product, copper will eventually be used for terminal consumption, such as electrical appliances, electronic equipment, automobiles and ships, aerospace, household appliances and new energy industries such as new energy vehicles and lithium batteries.
The continuous development of electronic information technology is an opportunity for all kinds of copper materials, and the natural properties of copper itself also determine the lofty position of copper materials in various industries. At present, the commonly used copper materials are still copper strips and copper bar wires. China's copper strip foil has been a net import for a long time, and copper rod wire has always occupied half of the copper production capacity, which can be seen.
As a constantly developing new energy industry, although due to epidemic pressure, geopolitical pressure of various countries, geographical and climatic problems, etc. The development in recent years may be limited. But in the long run, the rapid development of new energy is inevitable, and the sustainable development of energy has always been the theme of research in various countries. Therefore, although the current production ratio of copper foil is only 2%, and the technical barriers are high, as one of the essential components of lithium batteries, in the subsequent development, with the trend of new energy, the capacity and output of copper foil will surely usher in rapid growth.