Regionally, pig prices in some provinces of Northeast, Southwest and North China basically fell below 7 yuan, while pig prices in East China, Central China and South China barely remained above 7 yuan/kg. The provinces with the highest pig price in China are Shanghai and Zhejiang, but the price is only 7.5 yuan/Jin, which is not much better. The national market has basically maintained a unified pace.
"There are no eggs under the nest" shows that under the background of weak consumption and sufficient supply in the whole country, no province can "be immune to it". Pig prices continue to be low, pigs continue to lose money, and even deep-water areas with losses occur. Farmers are suffering. However, it is still the off-season of consumption, and the good wish to expect consumption to drive pig prices has basically failed, so many people put their expectations on the May Day holiday. So is the May Day pig price worth looking forward to?
Negative factors:
More meat in pigs is the core reason for crushing pig prices. Judging from the output and average weight of major listed pig enterprises in March, we can see that both of them have increased, which proves that the supply of pigs is still very loose. To make matters worse, however, the second fattening pig in February this year has now become a super-large pig weighing about 300 Jin, and it is the critical moment when it has to be slaughtered. According to the news at that time, the number of the second-born pigs was still quite large. It is conceivable that if these pigs are put on the market in the next time, will the pig price be good?
In addition, when the pig price went down in the early stage, on the one hand, slaughter enterprises put into storage on dips, on the other hand, in order to maintain the scale effect, they also increased the storage of frozen products, which increased the inventory of slaughter enterprises. Putting it on the market later will cause supply pressure.
However, what is even more disappointing is that the current pig futures are mainly down. We know that, generally speaking, pig futures indicate the pig price state in the next few months. Now the futures of both are also falling. It can be said that the pessimistic atmosphere is stronger for the future development of pig prices.
Good: The pig-grain ratio is below 5: 1, and storage is started.
But there are also positive factors, that is, the ratio of pig to grain has been lower than 5: 1 week.
According to a large number of data monitoring of pigs, the ratio of pig to grain today is 4.89: 1. According to relevant regulations, frozen meat storage should be started when the pig-grain ratio is lower than 5. At least this stored signal is there. But there is another point, that is, the start of purchasing and storage mechanism generally has a certain lag, and it may take nearly a month to actually implement purchasing and storage, so pig farmers will weigh the weight of this positive factor themselves.
Now the scale and cost of the pig industry are involved. Those who can "roll up" with the rhythm can live longer, but "those who can't roll up become meat rolls and are eaten by their peers", and the price of corn has been rising steadily recently, which means that the feed cost is still rising, the pig price is falling and the cost is rising, and pig farmers are miserable.
Back to the original question, is the May Day pig price worth looking forward to? A slight rebound is of course possible, but I'm afraid it's not so reliable to expect a five-day holiday to warm up pig prices.