. . The model proposed by Satoshi Nakamoto is based on relatively ideal assumptions. Of course, many academic models are like this. When tested in reality, they often encounter challenges from various practical problems. I have not read Satoshi Nakamoto's paper in detail, but it should not consider the factor of speculation. But speculation is important to the problem we are discussing. At present, in China, do you have any better investment/speculation methods? Real estate speculation? being regulated. Shop? It’s a big investment, but Wanda’s shop is pretty good. Stock trading? If I remember correctly, according to statistical experience, 80% of people lose money, and only 20% of people actually make money. Starting your own business? It's very tiring, not as fast as speculation. Still, civil servants look good. If you work hard for 20 years, you'll have a one in 100,000 chance of being promoted to the bureau level. That's when the rewards will come. . . Is it my turn? At present, I think most of the investment in Bitcoin in China is speculation. The usb mining machine is not expensive and has low returns, just like Xiaolu Yiqing’s. Butterfly miner has been delayed for a long time. What about futures mining machines? It looks really good. "Avalon chips will arrive in three months, and the first batch of goods will be delivered... According to the current returns, the 320 model can mine 52 BTC a month (mining revenue calculator)" Assuming that the seller promised each All conditions can be met. I got the mining machine in early September. How many BTC can I mine in a month? (You can calculate it, taking into account the emergence of a large number of computing power~). What is the quality of the mining machine (from a big manufacturer? Things often break (even though the after-sales service was promised), it is necessary to evaluate the risks. ------ At this time, I prefer to be a conspiracy theorist. With the funds already obtained from pre-sales, I will first assemble the 640 model tandem machine myself, rent a workshop, and dig for several months to build a scale. The advantage is that when the delivery was agreed upon, it was said that Pumpkin Zhang's chip had not yet arrived. Anyway, it was stated on the page that delivery depends on the arrival time of the chip. Who knows the specific details? In other words, it is to raise funds first, dig deep and work hard to make money. This strategy can make money much faster than working hard to develop and sell mining machines. Why not do it, no matter how complicated the business model is? To make money? ! Besides, are the current mining machines sustainable? If so, selling mining machines is certainly a long-term business. But this is not about selling computers. Because there are fewer and fewer Bitcoins, more and more people are mining, and fewer and fewer BTC are allocated to individuals. Unless the computing power of your mining machine continues to grow, you will be eliminated. So from the initial CPU mining, to graphics card mining, to the production of specialized algorithm chips, and then someone took over to manufacture specialized mining machines, and later there will be newer technologies that will eliminate the former. Therefore, only the miners at the front can make money, while those behind can only eat the residue, and those behind will lose money. Many people say that Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme, but I don’t think it is. The Ponzi scheme is very old. It is to brag that you have a project with quick and considerable returns, and use the "membership dues" or "investment" of late comers to distribute "returns" to first comers. After the scale increases, the later "investments" are not enough. The previous "returns" were released, and the capital chain was broken and ran away. But Bitcoin is a good thing and a creation. Its value comes from people recognizing its value and using it. Over time, it has become a universal virtual currency on the Internet, which is the progress of mankind, isn't it? However, as mentioned at the beginning, everything in China is speculation and hype. Whoever invents a new version of mining technology first develops it into products, such as chips and mining machines, and sells them to miners. It is the miners who have no vision and bought chickens that cannot lay eggs. This is not a Ponzi scheme. The problem is that mining machines are futures-based, and the constraints are all in favor of the seller, and mining Bitcoin is a race against time. When you get the mining machine, can you still get your money back? It feels like the front is deceiving the back, like a Ponzi scheme. Whether it’s mining or trading, only a few people are making money. This is just my personal opinion, please think independently and bear your own risks.