Because there is a long time interval between futures trading and physical delivery, and futures trading can be carried out through short selling, the influence of changes in commodity supply and demand on futures market prices will be greatly affected by changes in traders' psychological expectations, which will lead to the general trend of repeated and frequent fluctuations in futures market prices. Analysis of commodity supply. The analysis of futures commodity supply mainly examines the composition and changes of commodity supply in this period. The commodity supply in this period mainly consists of three parts: initial inventory, current output and import.
A. Opening inventory
Initial inventory refers to the physical quantity of goods accumulated in the previous year or quarter for the society to continue to consume. According to the identity of the inventory owner, it can be divided into producer-supplier inventory, dealer inventory and government reserve. The first two kinds of stocks can be listed and supplied at any time according to price changes, which can be regarded as the actual components of market commodity supply. The purpose of government reserves is to reserve for the overall interests of the whole society, and it will not be easily put on the market because of general price changes. However, when the market supply is seriously insufficient and prices soar, the government may use it to stabilize prices, which will have an important impact on market supply.
B. Output current
Current output refers to the commodity output this year or this quarter. It is the main body of commodity supply in the market, and its influencing factors are also very complicated. In the short term, it is mainly restricted by production capacity, resources and natural conditions, production costs and government policies. The influencing factors of different commodity production may vary greatly, so it is necessary to analyze the influencing factors of specific commodity production in order to grasp its possible changes more accurately.
C. Imports during this period
The import volume in this period is a supplement to domestic production, and usually changes with the change of supply and demand balance in the domestic market. At the same time, the import volume will also be affected by international and domestic market spreads, exchange rates, national import and export policies and international political factors. Since 1995, China has changed from a soybean exporter to a net importer, and the import volume directly affects the change of Dalian soybean futures price. Import data can be obtained from monthly customs statistics, and the main sources of import forecast data are: weekly export sales report released by the US Department of Agriculture on Thursday, and reports of relevant institutions on the export and shipment of soybeans in South America. Import forecast data has a great influence on Dalian soybean futures price, but it is difficult to reflect the real import quantity because traders sell back or transfer to other countries in the international market. Commodity market demand refers to the quantity of a commodity that the buyer is willing and able to buy at a certain time, place and price. It usually consists of domestic consumption, export volume and ending balance.
A. Domestic consumption
Domestic consumption is mainly influenced by the income level or purchasing power of consumers, the number of consumers, the change of consumption structure, the discovery of new uses of goods, the price of substitutes and the convenience of obtaining them. These factors often have a greater impact on the demand and price of futures commodities than the spot market.
The concrete analysis of soybean shows that the consumption of soybean is relatively stable and has little influence on the price. The urgent demand of soybean changes greatly, which has a great influence on the price. After soybean is squeezed, the market demand of soybean oil and soybean meal products is uncertain and there are many influencing factors. As a kind of vegetable oil, soybean oil is affected by the supply and demand factors of rapeseed oil, cottonseed oil, palm oil, coconut oil, peanut oil and sunflower oil. The main by-product (more than 80%) after soybean pressing is soybean meal. Soybean meal is one of the main ingredients in feed, which is closely related to the prosperity of aquaculture. Soybean meal demand has a great influence on soybean futures prices.
B, the international market demand analysis
Major soybean importing countries: EU, Japan, China, Southeast Asian countries and regions. The soybean imports of the European Union and Japan are relatively stable, while those of China and Southeast Asian countries change greatly. Although the stable import volume is large, it has little influence on the international market price, and the unstable import volume is small, but it has great influence on the international market price.
For example, 1995 and 1996, the rapid growth of soybean demand in China and Southeast Asian countries led to the rise of Chicago soybean futures prices. The United States Department of Agriculture publishes the Forecast of World Agricultural Products Supply and Demand at the beginning and middle of each month to analyze and forecast the demand of major importing countries. The USDA also publishes Oilseeds: World Market and Trade in the middle of each month, which is more professional and detailed as a sub-report of the previous report, including rapeseed, cottonseed, peanuts and sunflower seeds.
C. export volume
The export volume is the quantity of goods produced and processed in China that are sold to foreign markets, and it is one of the important factors that affect the domestic total demand. To analyze its changes, we should comprehensively consider the changes of various factors affecting exports, such as the supply and demand situation in the international and domestic markets, the price comparison between domestic sales and export, the changes of domestic export policies and import policies of importing countries, and the changes of tariffs and exchange rates. For example, China is one of the corn exporting countries, and the corn export volume is an important factor affecting the corn futures price.
D. Ending balance
On the one hand, it is an integral part of commodity demand and a necessary condition for normal social reproduction; On the other hand, it plays a role in balancing short-term supply and demand to a certain extent. When the supply of goods in this period is in short supply, the ending balance will decrease; Otherwise it will increase. Therefore, by analyzing the actual changes of inventory at the end of the current period, we can see the supply and demand of commodities in this period and its influence on the supply and demand and price of commodities in the next period from the perspective of physical movement of commodities. Taking soybeans as an example, the US Department of Agriculture publishes the stocks of soybeans in various countries in the monthly Forecast of World Agricultural Products Supply and Demand. The stocks of major producing countries such as the United States, Brazil and Argentina have an impact on the long-term trend of Chicago soybean futures prices, and there is a great correlation. There is no authoritative report on domestic soybean stocks. Due to the small scale of domestic farmers, it is difficult to accurately count the grain storage situation.
The basic factor analysis method holds that in order to better grasp the favorable opportunity of futures trading, traders should use the above factors to qualitatively analyze the trend of commodity futures prices, at the same time, they should also use statistical techniques to make quantitative analysis, improve the accuracy of forecasting, and even systematically describe the mutual constraints and interactions between various supply and demand factors that affect price changes by establishing economic models. The application of computer makes the quantitative analysis in basic factor analysis more comprehensive and accurate. Using econometric model to analyze the restrictive relationship between economic factors has become one of the important forecasting methods of basic factor analysis.