Grain prices have been falling continuously, pork prices have plunged, and cattle and sheep prices are in a dilemma. Even the price of gasoline has been falling continuously, just by more than 3 hairs, and by 4 hairs in the last three days.
It seems that ordinary consumers can save some money again. What happened? Take you to understand:
First, the rhythm of the "crash" of the corn market?
In recent days, farmers who have not sold grain must be in a bad mood, because food prices have fallen, and there is no shortage.
In the corn market, more than 30 corn enterprises lowered their purchase prices, and the market was green:
Shandong Hengren Industry & Trade fell 0.5 point, and the price was 1.475 yuan/kg; Jessie (Liaocheng) biological decline 1 point, 1.475 yuan/kg; Rizhao Jinhe Yuan Bo fell 2 points, 1.505 yuan/kg; Yishui land fell 1 point, 1.465 yuan/kg; Zhucheng trade fell 1 point, 1.48 yuan/kg; Xiangrui Pharmaceutical fell 1 point, 1.44 yuan/kg; Linqing Denengjin corn fell 0.5 points, 1.44 yuan/kg; Linyi Luzhou Formation fell 0.5 point, 1.485 yuan/kg; Abundant organisms fell 1 point, 1.44 yuan/kg; Zhucheng Yuanfa fell 1 point, 1.48 yuan/kg;
Inner Mongolia Yufeng Group fell 0.5 points, 1.45 yuan/kg; Kailu Wang Yu fell 0.5 points, 1.40 yuan; Plum blossom biology fell 1 point, 1.385 yuan/kg; Chifeng Yipin fell 0.5 point, 1.4 1 yuan/kg;
Liaoning Kaiyuan Yihai Kerry fell 0.5 points, 1.4 15 yuan/kg; Heilongjiang Liangjing Longjiang fell 0.5 point, 14 water 1.35 yuan/kg, 30 water 1.0908 yuan/kg; Cyclobalanopsis dragon and phoenix fell 0.5 point, 14 water 1.355 yuan/kg, 30 water 1.0948 yuan/kg; Suihua Wutian fell 1 point, 14 water 1.355 yuan.
See the attached table for the reduction range of other enterprises:
There is a cliff-like decline in the corn market, mainly due to:
1, the recent publication of 20 articles and the new article 10 has improved traffic conditions, accelerated corn sales, and led to increased corn price pressure.
2.65438+February, all parties in the corn market are under great financial pressure, and farmers need funds for year-end consumption and repayment of loans. Enterprises need to repay loans and banks need to withdraw funds, which is not good for the grain market.
3. Affected by international factors, the recent negative decline in US corn futures and the decline in domestic imported corn prices have put some pressure on domestic corn prices.
At present, in a short period of about 1 week, the average price of corn in various places has dropped by about 80- 100 yuan/ton. Judging from the future development of the market, I personally think that there is still room for corn prices to fall, mainly because the negative effects of the above-mentioned reasons have not been digested. It is estimated that the corn market will hardly improve before New Year's Day, and there may be a recovery rebound after New Year's Day.
Second, pork prices plummeted.
Friends who often go to the market to buy food recently may feel that the price of pork has dropped, and it has dropped a lot. 1 October 1 1 When the price of pork was high at the beginning of the year, 1 kg of pork in 3 yuan has recently dropped to 18, a kg in 9 yuan, and1kg has dropped by 3, 3 yuan.
At present, in the local farmers' market in Suiling, Heilongjiang, the front leg meat 19 yuan/kg, pork belly 19.5 yuan/kg, ribs 22 yuan/kg and big bones 15 yuan/kg are much lower than those in 3 yuan before.
According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the latest pork price in the national agricultural product market is 3 1.58 yuan/kg, which is 35.37 yuan lower than the monitoring price in the second half of the year, and close to 4 yuan.
The recent decline in pork prices is mainly due to:
First, the price of live pigs has dropped sharply. It is understood that the current price of live pigs began to fall at the end of 10. After a correction of 1 month, the price of live pigs dropped from 14.2 yuan/kg to 10. 16 yuan/kg, which led to a decrease in pork cost.
On February 9, 65438, the hog market fell again across the board, with the number of provinces with a decline exceeding that of 0.5 yuan reaching 17, among which: the pig price in Shanghai fell in 0.7 yuan,10.8-1.2 yuan/kg; 0.6 yuan fell in Shandong, 10.5- 1 1.0 yuan/kg; Anhui fell by 0.8 yuan, 10.4- 1 1.0 yuan/kg; 0.5 yuan fell in Zhejiang, 10.8- 1 1.2 yuan/kg; Jiangsu fell to 0.8 yuan, 10.7- 1 1.2 yuan/kg; Heilongjiang fell to 0.7 yuan, Jilin to 0.6 yuan and Liaoning to 0.5 yuan.
See the attached table for quotations from other regions:
Second, the peak consumption was blocked. According to the normal practice, it's the season to make bacon in the south and slaughter Nian pigs in the north. Although the price of pork has decreased, it is still between 18-22 yuan/kg, and the production cost is high. So some people reduce the production quantity, and some don't even do it. Relevant institutions predict that pork consumption will be reduced by about 30% to 40% compared with previous years.
Third, there are other factors, such as the holidays in some colleges and universities across the country, and the catering industry in some places has not fully recovered. Poor pork consumption is bad for pork prices.
Overall, the current pork price is still high. For ordinary consumers, especially low-income consumers, the appropriate pork price should be between 13- 18 yuan, which is reasonable. Although it is only 4 or 5 yuan higher now, there will be pressure when spending.
Regarding the next market, I personally think that there is not much room for pig prices and pork prices to continue to decline. Entering 65438+ 10 month, the market will improve, mainly considering the big consumption factors of New Year's Day and Spring Festival.
Third, oil prices have fallen sharply.
In addition to the good news that pork prices have fallen, there is also a heavy news that oil prices have fallen again, and the decline is still relatively large. Let's look at the specific situation.
Three days ago, in the last round of oil price reduction, the national average price dropped to 7.98 yuan/liter for every 0.34 yuan increase or decrease in No.92 gasoline, which officially entered the "7 yuan era".
Today's oil price market shows that on the third working day of the current pricing statistical cycle, the current crude oil change rate reaches about -6.27%, and it is expected to drop by 470 yuan/ton, which is in a state of sharp decline. After the discount, the price reduction is expected to be 0.36-0.44 yuan/liter. That is to say, if the price remains unchanged in the next seven working days, 92 # gasoline will drop to about 7.6 yuan/liter, and if a box of 50 liters of gasoline is added, 650 yuan will be saved again.
According to industry analysis, in the next refined oil market, under the background of the global economic recession and the expected rise of the Fed's interest rate hike, there is a greater probability that oil prices will continue to decline, which is undoubtedly good news for ordinary residents.
Fourth, the price of cattle and sheep is in a dilemma.
Now it has entered the last month of 2022. In aquaculture, the prices of pigs and eggs are not bad as a whole. Those who keep up with the rhythm earn a lot of money, but for friends who raise cattle and sheep, it is a long story.
The market has been bad since the beginning of the year. I thought I would make some money this year, but it was just a joke.
I thought that the price of cattle and sheep would be better in winter and the peak season of beef and mutton consumption, but I didn't expect it to be lonely.
It is understood that the current mainstream price of fattening cattle in various provinces in China is between 16.8- 18.8 yuan/kg, of which: the price of cattle in East China is 17.3- 18.8 yuan/kg, and that in Central China is17.0-/kloc-.
The prices of cattle in each province are shown in the following table:
The price of sheep in various places is as follows: Hohhot is about 30 kg, 550 male lambs and 500 female lambs; Jining eliminated sheep 12- 13 yuan/kg; Naiman Banner male lamb about 30 kg, 700 yuan/only; 600 yuan, 30 kg male lamb, 500 yuan, female lamb; The price of cold lambs in Qinhuangdao, Hebei Province is low, 30 kg female lambs are 450 yuan/each, and male cakes are 550 yuan/each; Henan Zhoukou fattening sheep 14 yuan/kg; Female sheep 1 1.5 yuan/kg and male sheep 12.5 yuan/kg were eliminated in Sanying Market, Guyuan, Ningxia;
Judging from the above quotation, the price of cattle and sheep is lower than 202 1, and the market of cattle and sheep is not good, mainly because:
First, in the past three years, due to the economic downturn, high profits from breeding cattle and sheep, mask problems and other factors, some farmers switched to breeding cattle and sheep market, resulting in an increasing stock and a lower and lower market.
The following figure shows the change of sheep stocks:
Second, although the price of cattle and sheep is low, only 10 yuan a catty, the price of beef and mutton has always been high. It is understood that the mainstream price of beef and mutton across the country is between 40-45 yuan/kg.
The latest wholesale market price monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that beef is 77.3 1 yuan/kg, down 0.8% from yesterday; Mutton was 66.90 yuan/kg, down 1.3% from yesterday.
Due to the high price of beef and mutton, many ordinary consumers simply can't afford it, and the reasons for the shrinking income of some residents are compound. The consumption of beef and mutton is insufficient, and the ability to drive the price of beef and mutton is insufficient.
From the market outlook, I personally think:
Judging from the price cycle of cattle and sheep, after nearly three years of de-capacity, the stock of cattle and sheep has reached an inflection point. It is expected that the market will improve in the second half of next year.
From the perspective of economic improvement, with the improvement of employment situation and the increase of residents' income, consumption will also improve.
Judging from the newly issued 20 policies and 10 policies, the mask problem has been gradually solved, and the catering industry and tourism industry will improve, which will also stimulate the consumption of beef and mutton, thus promoting the inflection point of the beef and mutton market.
Dear friends, is the pork, beef and mutton there expensive? How much is a catty? Welcome to bask in the sun for the comparison and reference of netizens all over the country.