The continuous decline in international oil prices has a positive overall impact on China's economic operation. China imports more than 300 million tons of oil annually. If the annual average import oil price drops by 10 USD, it will save 2 10 USD. If we consider the linkage of world energy prices, the import price of coal and natural gas in China may be lower, which will further depress the energy import cost in China, help reduce the fuel and transportation costs of enterprises and increase their profits. For residents, lower oil prices can reduce travel costs, expand consumption in other fields, and play a positive role in promoting economic growth. For the national strategic oil reserve, the falling oil price provides a favorable opportunity to increase the strategic crude oil reserve, which can improve the oil safety level of China.
In particular, at present, China is vigorously promoting the adjustment of economic structure and the transformation of development mode, and the decline in oil prices is conducive to promoting the adjustment of energy structure. In the past two years, the price of coal has been falling continuously, while the prices of oil and natural gas are still relatively high. The price difference between different energy sources has further widened, and the price comparison has become increasingly unreasonable, which has affected the enthusiasm of enterprises to use high-quality fossil energy such as oil and gas, and also affected the pace of energy structure optimization. At present, the low oil price will drive down the international natural gas price linked to it, which will help China to expand the scale of natural gas imports and improve the economy of replacing coal with natural gas.
Lower oil prices also bring opportunities to promote the price reform of energy resources products. The important goal of deepening the price and tax reform of resource products in China is to establish a system of paid use of resources and an ecological compensation system that reflects market supply and demand and resource scarcity, and reflects ecological value and intergenerational compensation. However, limited by economic affordability, product competitiveness and people's willingness to pay, the process of energy price reform is relatively slow. Falling oil prices can not only drive down the overall energy price, but also help to maintain price stability, which provides an opportunity for the market-oriented reform of domestic energy resources products. In addition, low oil prices are also conducive to China's oil cooperation "going out". Generally speaking, in the period of low oil prices, resource countries tend to put down their stance more easily, which can increase the breadth and depth of China's international energy cooperation.
However, the continuous decline in international oil prices will also have some negative effects on China's economic operation, so we must be vigilant!
The first thing that affects the development of high marginal cost oil and gas resources in China is. The old oil fields in eastern China have entered the middle and late stage of development, and the development cost is increasing gradually. The continuous decline of oil prices will directly affect the production and operation of old oil fields in China. In addition, falling oil prices have reduced the profit margins of oil companies. The decline in crude oil prices has reduced the cost of oil companies' refining departments. However, due to the compressed profits of crude oil exploration and development sector and the weak demand for end products, the three quarterly reports handed over by domestic "two barrels of oil" are not dazzling. Moreover, the continuous decline in oil prices has put the refined oil wholesale market in a dilemma, and the retail profit of private gas stations has shrunk dramatically, and the market is bearish. Operators shorten the operation cycle, fast forward and fast out, and reduce operational risks.
Secondly, vigorously developing renewable energy has become the strategic orientation of China's energy development. However, wind power and solar photovoltaic power generation are facing difficulties such as high cost and large amount of state subsidies, coupled with poor stability and low market acceptance. The occurrence characteristics of shale gas resources in China also determine the high cost of economic development of shale gas. If oil and gas prices continue to fall, it will not be conducive to the domestic shale gas industry, nor to the development and demonstration of coalbed methane, oil sands, deep-sea oil and combustible ice, which will have a negative impact on the development of renewable energy.
Thirdly, the sharp drop in oil prices will also shake the international "petrodollar system". If the "petrodollars" of crude oil exporting countries go upstream, it means that global liquidity and credit rating problems will surface, which will indirectly put pressure on China's foreign trade and monetary policy.
Finally, the article says that the impact of the continuous decline of international oil prices on China's economy and energy is closely related to the extent, speed and duration of the decline. Generally speaking, the advantages outweigh the disadvantages. China should seize the opportunity, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and promote the better development of China's economy and energy industry.