We are sure that our portfolio can make money steadily, but we are not sure whether the specific varieties can make money, because of the differences in account size, market outlook and discipline.
The simplest formula is the intersection of moving averages or indicators, or the breakthrough of traditional technical forms. These formulas, if the parameters are chosen properly, are all good tools to make money. They are simple and easy to implement. Most importantly, the entry and exit points of these formulas are clear. On this basis, we can carry out a lot of statistical verification. On the basis that statistical verification can be profitable, we can use them to make money, otherwise we will use our own money as cannon fodder.
In fact, the technical analysis theory in many books is only people's subjective wishful thinking, and there is no basis for statistical verification. There are two main problems. First, there is no way to do historical statistics, because some things themselves are uncertain. It's a waste to test whether they can make money. We need to verify whether they can simulate or make a firm offer, and finally come to a conclusion after a few years.
Since it is a vague method, it is difficult to copy. If you make money this time, you may lose money next time because of different moods or even different directions, that is, the long-term trading methods are inconsistent, which leads to the contingency of trading results, which is bound to be a loss in the long run. Chinese food pays attention to experience, all ingredients are a little bit, and the temperature is also vague things like slow fire and fierce fire. Two apprentices taught by a master have different cooking skills.
The west pays attention to standardization and reproducibility, and commercial chains do well. They pay attention to cooking a dish and frying it for a few minutes, which is done all over the world. This is the power of replication. Copied things will not be perfect, not as profound as China's classical culture, but the vitality of copied things is that they can be copied continuously.
Therefore, if you want to be a forecasting expert or trading expert with a sense of disk, it is impossible to trade with fixed investment. It is easy for many fixed traders to earn dozens of dollars a year. There are some traders who earn ten times or dozens of times a year, and I know several. Combined with their methods, I improved them according to my own trading situation, so I embarked on a fixed transaction that suited me. Although I didn't make huge profits like them, my income was good. After all, I am peaceful and happy when trading, which is enough.
Short-term and mid-line trading, because it has been more than two months since the beginning of this year, and the profit is not much, so I don't plan to do long-term trading for the time being, because long-term trading may quit, so I will use short-term and mid-line methods to accumulate some profits first and then consider whether to add long-term strategy.
Short-term trading basically draws two lines every day, that is, an interval, trend tracking. Of course, it is in the direction of breakthrough. It's simple. Every day, the interval breaks. If it is good for you to break through the direction, hold positions and let the profits run. If the breakthrough direction is not conducive to holding positions, close the position backhand and realize profit or stop loss in time. The interval is determined with the opening price as the main reference. Add a number to the opening price to get the upper track of the interval, and subtract a number from the opening price to get the lower track of the interval. Simple rules that most people think are stupid.
For mid-line trading, take the hourly line as the standard, and follow the tips when using the band trading point index above, which is as simple as most people think is stupid.
Simple is simple, but in the end it is better than the transaction result made by most people based on subjective prediction. More importantly, in this process, the heart is quiet, happy and peaceful, not the lust before placing the order, the fear after placing the order, and the regret after the transaction.
The core of a trading system or system or strategy is three parts, namely, entry, exit and position, which together constitute a system with positive expectations. As for expected value, yield, maximum retreat, Sharp ratio, risk-return ratio, standard deviation and variance, these things are only items or indicators used to judge the mathematical characteristics of returns. As for the combination of multi-variety, multi-strategy and multi-period, we just use markowitz's conclusion to make the capital curve go better.