In the second quarter of this year, mainstream views at home and abroad generally predicted that the global oil market is expected to achieve a rebalancing of supply and demand in the second half of this year. Now it seems that the previous expectations seem to be too optimistic.
On September 13, the International Energy Agency released a report saying that the global oil market is expected to remain in an oversupply state until the first half of 20 17 due to the slowdown in crude oil demand and the increase in supply.
In August this year, the oil output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries hit a record high. At the same time, due to the slowdown in demand growth and the increase in supply, OECD crude oil inventories have also risen to historical highs. Under heavy pressure, in early August, the price of new york crude oil once fell below the $40 mark per barrel. Oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia have to revisit the slogan of limiting production to boost the market. However, so far, the slogan-style rescue strategy of oil-producing countries has not really boosted the effect for a long time. After a brief excitement in the middle and late August, international oil prices quickly returned to calm in September.
Gao Chengsha, a crude oil analyst at Zhongyu Information, said that investors' optimism about the results of the oil-producing countries' meeting began to waver recently, and the news of the Fed's meeting on interest rates changed, which led to a seesaw trend of the US dollar. It is expected that the international oil price will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term.
In the capital market, speculative funds are constantly changing the wind. Statistics released by the Commodity Futures Management Committee of the United States show that the net long position of speculative funds in the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures increased by 37% in the two weeks from August 9 to 23, and decreased by 19.2% in the next two weeks.
Zhu Wenhao, deputy chief trading officer of China District of CreditEase Financial Headquarters, said that the report of the International Energy Agency shows that the pressure of oversupply will continue until the first half of next year, which has curbed the enthusiasm of investors in the oil market and the international oil price lacks upward momentum.
Affected by the downward adjustment of international oil prices, China's refined oil prices are expected to decrease slightly after experiencing "two consecutive rises". This will be the fourth time that China has lowered the price of refined oil this year.
According to the Measures for the Administration of Petroleum Prices, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are adjusted every 10 working day according to the changes of crude oil prices in the international market, and the effective time of price adjustment is 24: 00 on the price adjustment date.
The last round of domestic refined oil price adjustment occurred at 24: 00 on September 1 day, and the price of gasoline and diesel oil was raised by 205 yuan and 200 yuan respectively per ton. Affected by the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, at 24: 00 on September 18, the time window of China's refined oil price adjustment will open.
"At present, this round of refined oil price adjustment will not run aground, but it may be the smallest downward adjustment this year." Li Yan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, a domestic energy research institution, said that when the price adjustment window opened at 24: 00 on September 8, domestic gasoline and diesel oil decreased by 120 yuan and 15438 yuan per ton respectively, equivalent to 0.09 yuan per liter of No.92 gasoline and 0.0 yuan per liter of No.0 diesel oil.
According to the data model of An Xun, an international energy research institute, according to the current international oil price level, it is estimated that the domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel will drop by 105 yuan per ton at 24: 00 on September 8, and the retail price of No.90 gasoline and No.0 diesel (national average) will be lowered by 0.08 yuan and 0.09 yuan per liter respectively.
Although the downward adjustment expectation has always existed, due to the boost of the holiday and the approaching of the "Eleventh" holiday in the later period, gas stations are still stepping up stocking, and the prices of gasoline and diesel in the domestic refined oil wholesale market are still on the rise.
This round of domestic refined oil price adjustment cycle is the18th round since this year. Because the international oil price is lower than the "floor price" of 40 dollars per barrel, the prices of gasoline and diesel have been stranded twice, lowered three times, raised six times and not adjusted six times. So far, this year, the price of gasoline and diesel in China has risen by 470 yuan and 455 yuan per ton respectively.