Analyze the macroeconomic situation

The main contents of macroeconomic situation analysis include the expectation of some economic indicators, such as economic growth and inflation. Economic operation and development is an abstract process, which is mainly reflected by a series of economic indicators. Various economic indicators are mutually conditional, interrelated and influenced in economic operation, and there is a certain causal relationship, which develops and changes according to certain laws. If the national economy is abnormal, then some indicators will be reflected first. It is this internal relationship between economic variables that makes it possible for us to analyze macroeconomics. Therefore, the first step of macro-analysis is to be familiar with the indicators that reflect the macro-economic operation. Only by choosing reasonable indicators can we draw a correct conclusion. In addition to selecting economic indicators for analysis, it is also necessary to pay attention to the changes of national policies and the situation of major foreign markets in order to comprehensively consider and predict the future macroeconomic trends.

2

Observe monetary policy

Monetary policy refers to various policies and measures adopted by the central bank to control and adjust the money supply or credit quantity, including credit policy, interest rate policy and foreign exchange policy.

According to the impact on total output, monetary policy can be divided into two categories: expansionary monetary policy (active monetary policy) and tight monetary policy (prudent monetary policy). When the economy is depressed, the central bank takes measures to reduce interest rates, which leads to an increase in money supply, stimulates investment and net exports, and increases aggregate demand, which is called expansionary monetary policy. On the other hand, when the economy is overheated and the inflation rate is too high, the central bank takes a series of measures to reduce the money supply, so as to raise interest rates, curb investment and consumption, slow down or slow down the growth rate of total output, and control the price level at a reasonable level. This is the tightening monetary policy.

Active monetary policy is to stimulate aggregate demand by increasing the growth rate of money supply. Under this policy, it is easier to get credit and interest rates will be reduced. Therefore, when the total demand is low relative to the economic production capacity, it is most appropriate to use expansionary monetary policy.

Negative monetary policy is to reduce the level of total demand by reducing the growth rate of money supply. Under this policy, it is more difficult to obtain credit and interest rates have increased. Therefore, when inflation is serious, it is more appropriate to adopt a negative monetary policy.

Through the analysis of monetary policy, we can judge whether it is expansionary or contractive, and then we can judge the impact on short-term interest rates and the response of medium and long-term interest rates to it.

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The regulatory objectives of monetary policy

The object of monetary policy adjustment is the money supply, that is, the total purchasing power of the whole society, which is embodied in the cash in circulation and the deposits of individuals, enterprises and institutions in banks. Cash in circulation is closely related to the change of consumer price level, and it is the most active currency, which has always been an important goal for the central bank to pay attention to and adjust.

The main operational objectives that central banks usually adopt are: short-term interest rate, deposit reserve of commercial banks, base currency, etc.

1. Short-term interest rate

Short-term interest rate usually refers to the market interest rate, which can reflect the supply and demand of market funds and change flexibly. It is an important indicator that affects the supply and demand of social money and the total amount of bank credit. It is also an important policy indicator used by the central bank to control the money supply, regulate the market money supply and demand, and achieve the monetary policy objectives, such as the discount rate of western central banks and the London Interbank Offered Rate. At present, there is a view in China that the open market operation should aim at the positive repo rate.

2. Commercial bank deposit reserve

The central bank regards reserve as the operational goal of monetary policy, the main reason is that no matter what policy tools the central bank uses, it will first change the reserve of commercial banks, and then affect the intermediate and final goals. Therefore, it can be said that changing reserves is the only way to conduct monetary policy, because the more reserves a commercial bank has, the greater its ability to lend and invest, and the more deposits and money supply it derives. Therefore, the increase of bank reserves is considered as monetary easing in the money market, while the decrease of reserves means monetary tightening in the market.

The shortcomings of reserve funds in accuracy are just like interest rates. As an endogenous variable, reserves are related to negative demand. When the demand for loans rises, the banking system will reduce reserves to expand credit; On the contrary, increase reserves and reduce credit. As a policy variable, reserves are positively related to demand. If the central bank wants to curb demand, it will certainly try to reduce the reserves of commercial banks. Therefore, reserve as a financial indicator also has the disadvantages of misleading the central bank.

3. Base currency

The base currency is an operational indicator often used by the central bank, and is also often called "strong currency" or "high-energy currency". From the measurement range of the base currency, it is the sum of the reserves of commercial banks and the currency in circulation, including the deposits of commercial banks in the central bank, cash in the bank, loans from the central bank and cash held by the public. The conversion between currency and reserve does not change the total amount of base currency, and the change of base currency comes from those factors that increase or decrease the base currency.

The central bank sometimes uses the "adjusted base currency" index, or the expanded base currency, which is the adjusted base currency for changes in the statutory reserve. It is impossible to explain and measure monetary policy only by the change of the total amount of base money, and the internal composition of base money must be considered. The base currency is more favorable than the bank reserve because it takes into account the public's currency holdings, while the reserve ignores this important factor.

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Pay attention to short-term factors such as funds.

The influence of market funds is determined by the change of overnight, 7-day and 14-day repo rates. The higher repurchase rate indicates that the market is short of funds, which means that the bond market has less funds to buy bonds, which puts pressure on prices.

four

Analysis of the influence on medium and long-term national debt

Because the basic asset of treasury bond futures is 4-7 year treasury bonds, the above three kinds of analysis need to be applied to the analysis of medium-term treasury bonds. Generally speaking, short-term treasury bonds are greatly influenced by funds and policies, long-term treasury bonds are greatly influenced by macro aspects, and medium-term treasury bonds are in between. The above factors need to be considered comprehensively.

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Day trading can choose better time and price with the help of certain technical analysis.

Treasury futures also need to consider the timing of buying and selling. Even if the fluctuation of treasury bond futures is relatively small, a better entry and exit point can still bring a lot of profit and loss changes. The choice of timing and the comparison of buying and selling power in the market can also help investors operate better (see Figure 4-8).

Figure 4-8 Intraday Trend of Treasury Bond Futures

Source: Wenhua Finance.

six

Confirm the stop loss position and determine the profit target

The leverage of treasury bonds futures is as high as 50 times. If you don't operate carefully, a 2% change in the market price will make investors lose their money, so it is necessary to set a stop loss.

The trend of bonds usually lasts for some time, but macro indicators such as inflation and economic growth may lead to the central bank's intervention in monetary policy, leading to the interruption of market trends. Therefore, long-term investors need to observe the economic situation and confirm the opportunity to leave. For short-term investors, buying low and selling high and selling high and buying low can be judged according to market conditions.

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Transaction fund arrangement

(1) 30% principle. Investors' positions should generally not exceed 30%, so as to have sufficient margin.

(2) Pyramid management. When the position is profitable, you can consider adding positions, but the amount of adding positions should be gradually reduced. Don't add positions without floating losses, don't blindly add positions for loss positions, and try to reduce costs to recover losses, which may lead to further increase in losses when the market deviates from the forecast.

(3) Pay attention to the delivery risk. Short sellers need to submit bonds, and each hand needs bonds with a face value of 6.5438+0 million yuan for delivery; For bulls, it is necessary to prepare funds, and each bull needs to prepare funds. The conversion coefficient is × 1 10,000 yuan. Compared with the position margin of treasury bonds futures, the demand for these funds and bonds is very huge. For ordinary individual investors, it may be difficult to raise a large amount of funds in a short time, and it is unlikely to participate in delivery. However, if the delivery is in default, the default fee will be paid. Therefore, if you don't hedge, you need to prepare for moving the warehouse in advance.