The yield of 1 varieties with overcapacity is relatively stable.
As a variety with overcapacity, soda ash has been distributed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology since May 1, 2065438. The following three conditions are also applicable to existing soda ash production plants. This leads to the slow growth of soda production capacity. However, in the announcement of Document No.27 of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on June 16, 2020,
1. As of the date of this announcement, the Access Conditions for Soda Industry issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (Announcement No.99 of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [20 10]) shall be abolished. Two, encourage relevant industry organizations to give full play to their role, strengthen industry self-discipline, maintain a fair market order, guide and supervise the standardized development of enterprises. However, new capacity projects still need strict examination and approval by the National Development and Reform Commission, and the current situation of domestic supply exceeding demand is difficult to change. In addition, the investment in soda plants is large, and the actual impact of this policy on soda ash market may be limited.
Judging from the long-term new production capacity, it is estimated that the annual production capacity will decrease by 460,000 tons in 2002/kloc-0, and the new production capacity of Guyuanxing Energy in Inner Mongolia will be 3 million tons in 2023 alone.
When the production capacity is relatively stable, the output is also relatively stable. From 202 1 to1-July, the cumulative output of soda ash was170.75 million tons, with a cumulative increase of 2.8%.
2 soda ash demand growth bright
1, the output of traditional flat glass increased significantly.
202 1-2022 is the year of real estate completion, and the demand for glass has increased obviously, which has brought high price and high profit of glass, and high profit has brought about an increase in glass output. In 202 1,1-July, the cumulative glass output was 599180,000 TEU, with an accumulated increase of1.1%. Under the premise of ensuring the supply of the glass industry by the National Development and Reform Commission, the cold patching production line will be resumed in the second half of this year, and the cold patching meeting of the production line will also be postponed. At present, the number of glass production lines has reached a new high in five years. Under the background that cold repair and resumption of production are basically the same, we think that the glass output in the second half of this year is still not low.
2. The demand increment of photovoltaic glass soda ash began to appear.
On July 20th, according to official website news of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the implementation measures of capacity replacement in the cement glass industry. The "Measures" require that it is strictly forbidden to record and build new cement clinker and flat glass projects to expand production capacity. If a new building is really needed, a capacity replacement plan must be formulated and implemented. The photovoltaic calendered glass project need not make a capacity replacement plan, but it needs to establish a capacity risk early warning mechanism. These Measures shall come into force as of August, 20021year.
According to the available information, the production scale of photovoltaic glass in the second half of the year is
10000 tons/day. And the production scale of photovoltaic glass will be larger in the next few years, and the potential increment of soda ash will be considerable.
According to the survey of Glass Association, 202 1 added 7.2 million tons of photovoltaic glass. The demand for new soda ash is more than 6.5438+0.4 million tons. In 2022, the production capacity of photovoltaic glass will increase by 5 million tons, and soda ash will increase by 6,543,800 tons.
3. New energy industry drives demand for soda ash
In July of 20021year, the output of new energy vehicles in China was 289,000, with a cumulative output of 654.38+0.572 million. As the battery positive electrode of new energy vehicles, according to the average usage of 50-80kg lithium carbonate per vehicle, lithium carbonate 1 100000 tons will be needed from June to July this year, and more than 220,000 tons of soda ash will be consumed. Under the background of carbon neutrality at the peak of carbon dioxide emission, encouraging the development of new energy industries and promoting new energy vehicles abroad, the demand for lithium carbonate has increased significantly. According to estimates, the consumption of lithium carbonate soda ash in China will reach1254,500 tons in 2025, an increase of about 890,000 tons compared with 2020. Although the current demand for lithium carbonate is only about 1.4%. However, the influence of lithium carbonate industry on the demand side of soda ash is subtle. In the medium and long term, the increase of consumption of soda ash by lithium carbonate is large, which will gradually form a more significant impact.
4. The output of daily-use glass increased greatly.
In the first half of 2002/kloc-0, the output of daily-use glass products and glass packaging containers was13,607,500 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 15.70%. In 2020, affected by the epidemic, the operating rate of daily-use glass products industry decreased significantly, but this year, the downstream demand improved, the capacity utilization rate also began to increase, and the output increased significantly.
Under the background of stable supply and increasing demand, there is a gap between supply and demand.
In the case of relatively stable production capacity, and in the long run, there will be new large production capacity after 2023, and the demand side will increase the demand for flat glass; The demand for daily glass products; The new demand of photovoltaic glass: the long-term incremental demand of lithium carbonate for soda ash, the original surplus soda ash will become a tightly balanced variety, and even there is a gap. This may be the reason why the current structure has changed slowly in the near future. Soda is weak in reality and strong in expectation, or gradually moving towards reality and strong in expectation, becoming the next star variety.
This article comes from hedge research and investment.