In terms of global wheat supply and demand, according to the supply and demand report issued by the US Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the global wheat demand in 20021/2022 was 787 million tons, while the wheat output in that year was only 779 million tons, which means that there is a supply gap of about 8 million tons in the international wheat market.

The international wheat exports of the two countries, which account for one third of the world's wheat exports, are blocked, further increasing the international wheat supply gap.

Coupled with the hoarding and malicious speculation of some international merchants and the irrational re-guarantee of wheat prices under the guidance of futures, the cumulative increase of global wheat has exceeded 40%.

The storm in the wheat market has begun again.

China's new season wheat has been listed sporadically, but the current domestic wheat price trend is still normal, and the price of old wheat is slowly falling, moving closer to the price of new wheat step by step.

In terms of new wheat, although the market volume is increasing, the number of enterprises that start to buy new wheat is also increasing, so the current price of new wheat is still relatively ideal. Ye Xiang Flour Xinmai 1.56 yuan, Dongfang Xinmai 1.48 yuan, Baixiang Xinmai 1.54 yuan, Handan Xinmai 1.58 yuan.

Different from the "calm atmosphere" in the domestic market, the international wheat market is another storm:

1, global wheat production is lowered.

On May 13, USDA released the first annual report on global agricultural product supply and demand in 2022-2023, in which the global wheat output decreased by 4.5 million tons compared with last year, reaching 774.8 million tons.

2. The wheat stock is in a hurry. In 2022/2023, the ending inventory of wheat fell to 260 million tons, the lowest level in the last six years.

Of course, the biggest storm is that India, the second largest wheat producer in the world, suddenly announced the ban on wheat export. On the one hand, India's wheat exports surged to 6.5438+0.4 million tons in April, an increase of nearly five times over the previous year.

On the other hand, the expected yield of wheat in India is 5.7% lower than that made in February, falling to1050,000 tons.

The decline in output and the increase in imports led to the highest wheat price in India in 10 years. In order to ensure sufficient domestic supply, India can only ban wheat exports.

What is the impact on the prices of "three staple foods" in China?

First, the impact on wheat prices.

The self-sufficiency rate of wheat in China is over 90%. In 20021year, China imported 9.77 million tons of wheat, while the domestic total wheat was 654.38+37 million tons, accounting for 7 1% of the domestic wheat production. Although the self-sufficiency rate is high, the increase in international wheat prices will still raise domestic wheat prices.

In March this year, when the international wheat price rose the most, China's wheat price once rose to 1.6 yuan, and the high-priced area even reached 1.7 yuan.

Judging from the current situation of international grain supply and demand, there is a high probability that international grain prices will continue to rise, which will inevitably spread to China.

Considering that more than1.1.0 million mu of wheat was sown at the end of last autumn, there may be a problem of crop failure. It is predicted that the domestic wheat price will continue to rise on the basis of 1.5- 1.6 yuan this year.

Second, the impact on corn prices.

The influence of wheat on corn price is mainly reflected in substitution. If the price of wheat has an advantage in feed, it will replace corn, leading to a decline in corn demand, which is not conducive to the stability or increase of corn prices.

If there is no advantage in the price of wheat, the demand at the feed end will all fall on corn, which will keep the demand for corn at a high level and help the price of corn rise.

At present, when the price of wheat is above 1.5 yuan, it loses its substitution advantage. If it continues to rise in the later period, there will be no substitution at the feed end. The rise in wheat prices will also drive up the price of corn.

Third, the impact on rice prices.

Although wheat and rice are both important rations in China, one is in the north and the other is in the south, and there is little interaction between them. The price of wheat will basically not affect the price of rice.

However, the current situation is that the price of wheat is high, and feed enterprises can only choose rice by seeking other food substitutes, which will increase the market demand for rice and encourage the price of rice to rise.

However, considering that the domestic rice reserves are sufficient and have a very strong ration attribute, it is expected that its price will only increase slightly.