Inconsistency and the future
Ren, whose real name is "Let me fly", graduated from Zhejiang University majoring in business administration in 2002. He should be doing the daily management of the automobile industry, but he has a "spark" with futures, and he thinks that futures is his lifelong career.
Ren admits that he was very sensitive to numbers since he was a child, especially a Hong Kong drama called "Big Times" deeply touched him. Since then, Ren has expected to be as powerful as those in TV series one day.
In the choice of varieties, Ren first came into contact with non-ferrous metals such as copper and zinc, then began to make fuel oil, and then slowly fell in love with chemical varieties such as plastics, with many ups and downs in the middle.
"I have several good friends who do plastic spot trading, and of course they also do futures trading." Ren told the reporter of Futures Daily that when talking with friends, he found that chemical plastics are as seasonal as agricultural products. In general, May is a relatively high price in a year, and September and 65438+ 10 are relatively low prices. According to this rule, there will be stable profit opportunities every year. In addition, cross-contract arbitrage is also very rich. From then on, he fell in love with this variety.
After years of contact, he gradually became familiar with all the habits of chemicals, including upstream and downstream linkage and seasonal changes. "As Mr. Feng said, he has always insisted on being his favorite copper variety, and so have I, insisting on being my favorite chemical industry." Ren said.
Fundamentals plus technology to show off their elegance
Ren is no stranger to the national futures company trading competition. Counting this year, he is already a "veteran" who has participated in three consecutive competitions. In the first two competitions, he was ranked 100 in the lightweight group and 100 in the weight group respectively, and in this competition, the second place in the chemistry group was his most satisfactory result.
Talk about your own trading characteristics, and use the operation of "combining long and short, changing styles" to summarize. Specifically, long-term orders can be firmly held, even for half a year, and short-term orders will have the opportunity to actively participate.
"In terms of trading methods, we should start from the fundamentals, judge which commodities have the opportunity to rise or fall, and then try the order according to the technical indicators. Generally, it is necessary to meet the synchronization of monthly, weekly and daily lines, and refer to the 30-minute line and the 5-minute line to determine the order position. At this time, there will be two situations: one is that the trial order is successful and there is a floating profit, so the position will continue to be held until the technical indicators give a reversal prompt or the fundamentals change; In another case, if the trial order fails and the price reaches the stop loss level, then stop the loss resolutely and look for the next opportunity. " Ren said.
Take the game as an example. The empty list on the methanol reflects his operating ideas. It is understood that he entered the market with an empty order of 2394 yuan/ton. When the price dropped rapidly in the next two days, he didn't increase his position, and he didn't move when the price rebounded. After the pressure level was determined, the price fell again, and the position was greatly profitable. He only increased his position at 23 14 yuan/ton. After that, the trend went down all the way, and he continued to hold it and made a profit after the contract was changed.
Among chemical products, Ren likes to trade plastics and polypropylene from big firms. In addition, the methanol of Zhengzhou trading firm fluctuates greatly, which is also his "dish".
In his view, methanol also has obvious seasonality. When the market was stable a few years ago, the price was low in summer and high in winter. Usually, after heating in the north, the supply of natural gas upstream of methanol starts to be tight, the spot output gradually decreases, and the futures price gradually rises. In addition, extreme weather is prone to occur in winter, which makes transportation difficult and leads to tight spot supply, thus boosting prices. During this period, there is a lot of room for profit.
This time, I was able to stand on the podium of the second place in the chemical group, mainly because I entered more than one plastic in April, and then opened at 10200 yuan/ton. In the later period, the market was dominated by empty methanol. "The macro level is not good, and the market was seasonally weak in September. Short rallies' is definitely the theme. " Ren told the reporter of Futures Daily that he entered the market around 2394 yuan/ton because the methanol futures price broke through the previous support. On the third day, the price of methanol futures directly fell to 2 126 yuan/ton.
"I didn't expect the rebound after the oversold to be fierce, and the methanol futures price directly reached 2400 yuan/ton. At that time, I set the stop loss at 2430 yuan/ton, and my heart was very tormented. " But he firmly believes in his own judgment and believes that this round of decline has just begun. Sure enough, the futures price never touched the pressure level of 2400 yuan/ton, but fell all the way. Finally, the position was closed at 2030 yuan/ton in that month.
"I trade in chemical products such as plastics and methanol every year, and I am more and more familiar with their upstream and downstream. It is best to be a familiar variety in order to have a stable income. " Ren admits that from the actual trend, it may be more profitable not to change the moon, but in practice, position control and risk control are very important. When the stop loss point is reached, the stop loss must be strictly controlled, and the profit-taking point depends on the changes of specific indicators at that time. Generally speaking, he belongs to the school of fundamentals and technology.
Seeing the direction and controlling the position will naturally make money. However, Ren won the second place in the energy and chemical group this year, but it was completely unexpected. He said that the operation did not achieve his goal, and there were still many areas to be improved. I hope we can make persistent efforts and do better next year.
In office, personality determines success or failure. The futures industry should be able to withstand loneliness and settle down. Although there were many setbacks and failures on the road of futures, Ren persisted out of his love for financial transactions. In the future, he will continue to engage in this industry and will unswervingly go on.