In fact, in September, the price of "Dr. Copper" fluctuated obviously. In the first week of September, LME copper prices fell by more than 7%, with an amplitude of more than 6%. However, in the second week of September (before the Mid-Autumn Festival), most varieties of non-ferrous metal plates rebounded sharply. LME copper prices rose by more than 3% in the week, and the amplitude also exceeded 6%. Moreover, copper prices have fallen by 27% since April this year because the market is worried about economic recession.
Domestically, although influenced by the fluctuation transmission of international crude oil, non-ferrous metals and other commodities prices, China's CPI increase generally runs in a reasonable range, which is in sharp contrast with the international high inflation. Inflation is high.
The "interest rate eagle" in the United States and Europe hovered.
On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the latest inflation data. At present, some market analysts predict that the CPI of the United States increased by 8. 1% year-on-year in August, and remained at a historical high. Previously, the year-on-year increase of CPI in the United States reached 9. 1% in June and dropped to 8.5% in July.
The inflation rate in the euro zone has also reached a record high. According to the data released by Eurostat on August 3rd1,in August, 2022, the consumer price harmony index (HICP) in the euro zone rose to 9. 1% at an annual rate, which was not only higher than 8.9% in July, but also broke the historical record of inflation since the establishment of the euro zone for the fifth time this year. In addition, excluding unstable factors such as energy and food, the core inflation rate also rose to an all-time high of 4.89%.
To this end, the "eagle of interest rate increase" in the United States and Europe has been hovering. Recently, the Federal Reserve has been releasing hawks continuously, and it is almost a foregone conclusion to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in September. According to institutional observation and forecast, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points in September is 10%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 90%. By June 165438+ 10, the cumulative probability of raising interest rates by 75 basis points is 8.7%, the cumulative probability of raising interest rates by 100 basis points is 80%, and the cumulative probability of raising interest rates by 125 basis points is/kloc-0.
On September 8, the European Central Bank held a monetary policy meeting, decided to raise the three key interest rates in the euro zone by 75 basis points, and indicated that it might continue to raise interest rates to further curb inflation. This is the biggest rate hike since the introduction of the real euro in 2002.
Global commodity price fluctuations have intensified.
A sharp increase in interest rates in the United States and Europe will seriously affect global commodity prices and aggravate their fluctuations.
In September, the price of copper, known as Dr. Copper, fluctuated obviously. In the first week of September, LME copper prices fell by more than 7%, with an amplitude of more than 6%. However, in the second week of September (before the Mid-Autumn Festival), most varieties of non-ferrous metal plates rebounded sharply. In that week, LME copper price rose by more than 3% (Shanghai copper price rose by 3.46% that day), and the amplitude also exceeded 6%. Moreover, copper prices have fallen by 27% since April this year because the market is worried about economic recession.
In fact, since the beginning of this year, the global commodity trading markets such as crude oil, chemicals, precious metals and agricultural products have fluctuated greatly. Many commodity futures prices fell sharply after reaching a stage high in March. For example, the main contract price of ice oil distribution climbed from 78 dollars/barrel at the beginning of the year to 139. 13 dollars/barrel in March, and then fell to the current 92.87 dollars/barrel (intraday trading in September 12). The main contract price of COMEX gold reached a stage high of $2,078.8 per ounce in March, and then fell back to $65,438+0.736 per ounce in intraday trading on September 65,438+02.
The list of major capital positions is updated in real time. The unexpected "episode" in the APP is that the popularity and turmoil of the commodity market have made Wall Street traders make a fortune, even exceeding the profit record set during the financial crisis. According to the data and estimation of %20Analytics in London, by the end of 2022, 100 banks with the highest income will earn1800 million dollars from commodity trading. This will be the highest level in 14 years and exceed the highest profit in 2009.
The price level in China has been kept within a reasonable range.
"The large fluctuation of commodities in the international market has brought great challenges to the domestic market." Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the China Policy Science Research Association, told the Shanghai Securities Journal that this has increased the difficulty of stabilizing domestic growth. Affected by many factors, such as the fluctuation transmission of international crude oil, non-ferrous metals and other commodities prices and the weak market demand in some domestic industries, the price trend of industrial products has generally declined.
However, "China's price level has remained in a reasonable range, which is in sharp contrast to the high inflation in the United States and the euro zone." Liu Fang, a researcher at the Institute of Market and Price of China Macroeconomic Research Institute, said that there is no doubt that China is also a "stabilizer" for global prices.
"Since the Ukrainian crisis, food prices in China have only increased by about 2.4% on average, far lower than the increase of 7.5% to 10.6% in European countries." Liu told reporters that China has continuously strengthened the construction of production, supply, storage and marketing systems for important commodities such as grain and coal, and responded to the uncertainty of the external environment with certainty of domestic supply and price stability, effectively ensuring the basic stability of prices. From 1 to August, CPI rose by 1.9% year-on-year, and rose by 2.5% year-on-year in August, which was less than one third of that in the euro zone.
China has taken remarkable measures in energy supply and price stability. A number of measures include: taking coal as an anchor to ensure the safe and stable supply of energy and continuously increase coal production and supply; Organize the medium and long-term coal contract signing and performance supervision to ensure the stable supply and price of coal; Formulate enterprise production increase plans to ensure the supply of refined oil; Accelerate the development of renewable energy and promote the full development and utilization of wind power generation and solar power generation; Vigorously promote the development and construction of pumped storage power stations and encourage the development of new energy storage facilities; Improve the formation mechanism of coal market price, and the coal price will run in a reasonable range of 570~770 yuan per ton. By stabilizing coal prices, electricity prices and energy costs, the price of electricity and gas for residents has always remained basically stable.
"In the context of high global inflation, the effect of stabilizing prices in China is hard-won and has achieved remarkable results. Important livelihood commodities and basic energy have played a mainstay role." Liu Fang said that China's efforts to keep domestic prices stable under the complicated situation of a hundred-year change and a hundred-year epidemic are an important aspect of stabilizing the economic market, effectively safeguarding and improving people's livelihood, and are conducive to enhancing the confidence of market players and consumers and creating a good environment for the smooth operation of the macro economy.
If you want to know more real-time financial news, please follow us.