Last week, under the influence of the intensified turmoil in Libya and other parts of the Middle East, the price of crude oil futures in the international market broke through the 106 mark. At the same time, due to the surge in safe-haven demand, gold futures prices also hit a record high in intraday trading last week. Due to the rapid escalation of geopolitical risks and the continuous rise of international oil prices, both developed and developing economies are affected without exception, and there will be more variables in the recovery of the world economy. The Middle East is the most important oil-producing region in the world, and the daily output of crude oil accounts for nearly one third of the world average daily output. After the March 19 Western military strike, Libya's crude oil exports were completely interrupted, and many European importing countries were "in a hurry", many of which were the hardest hit areas of the European debt crisis. According to the data of the International Energy Agency, Libya's oil production has dropped from 6,543,800+0,580 barrels per day before the crisis to a very low level. More market participants predict that Libya's crude oil production and export will almost completely stop. Before the outbreak of the war, Libya's daily average crude oil production capacity was 6.5438+0.6 million barrels, which was very impressive. Libya is the 14 largest crude oil producer in the world, and the significance of Libyan crude oil lies in its very high quality. Because of its easy refining, European refineries tend to use Libyan crude oil, and some refineries can't even extract oil from low-quality crude oil. I agree with the previous media analysis of the impact of the situation in Libya on the market, but beyond that, I think we should not only pay attention to Libya, but also pay attention to the impact on the international market once the turmoil spreads to the whole (Middle East) region. For the global economy, the turmoil in Libya is really a rainy day. Because at this juncture of the global economic recovery, the last thing you want to see is the skyrocketing oil price, and the most direct result of the situation in Libya is the skyrocketing oil price. Therefore, this situation in Libya today, whether it is a developed country with unstable economic recovery momentum or a developing country that is already facing inflationary pressure, is not what everyone wants to see. But at this point, how the future situation will go and what impact it will have on the specific interests of all countries still deserves our attention. It can be said that Europe has the closest economic relationship with Libya. Before this turmoil, 70% of Libya's crude oil was exploited by European oil companies and mainly exported to the European market. Now Libya's crude oil production of 6.5438+0.6 million barrels per day has almost stopped, which is one of the reasons for Europe's active intervention. According to the analysis, in addition to developed countries, the negative impact of imported inflationary pressure brought by rising oil prices on developing economies is more obvious. A study by HSBC shows that if the oil price reaches US$ 65,438+US$ 0.20 per barrel, the consumer price index in India may rise by 1.3 percentage points, and Indonesia by 1.2 percentage points.